The Windsor Framework: Analysing UK’s Post- Brexit relation with EU
On 23rd June 2016, the UK- wide referendum led to one of the most significant moments in the history of political science. Popularly known as the Brexit referendum, which saw 51.9%[1] of the United Kingdom population vote in favour of leaving the European Union (EU). The Brexit phenomenon has been responsible for triggering a myriad of political and economic events which has seen the British government dealing with political and economic instability. The effects are now more visible as with the ongoing Russia- Ukraine War, the constraints on the economy are highlighting the weakness in the British economy since Brexit.
Brexit was able to capture the attention of the whole world. The primary reason for that is that the United Kingdom shares a rich history with the EU institutions. Being part of the bloc, when it was called European Community, has been able to accommodate within the EU’s legislative and economic model. (Scott, 2011) Since the ratification of the Maastricht Treaty and the inception of the European Union, the United Kingdom has always been a substantive economic contributor to the bloc, proving its commitment to the bloc. (Scott, 2011) Therefore, when David Cameron decided to hold the referendum in 2016, this was one of the biggest tests not only for the European Union but towards the whole Liberal International Order as the EU stands as the primary example of the success of the Liberal Order since the end of Cold War in 1991. (Ikenberry, 2020)
Post- Brexit period has seen the United Kingdom dealing with multiple issues including seeking new independent trade relations with countries, adapting to functioning outside the EU single market and crafting a new foreign image. Despite dealing with these issues, the issue of Northern Ireland continues to persist the British politics.
Negotiations with Northern Ireland are a sensitive issue for both UK and the EU. The history of the regions is associated with a violent history of sectarianism embedded within socioeconomic conflicts. There have been multiple attempts at securing peace in the region namely the Good Friday Agreement of 1998 and the St. Andrews Agreement of 2006. (Hancock, 2008 ) Despite the prevalence of international agreements, the responsibility for maintaining relations has fallen upon multiple documentations on land borders, under the ambit of the EU’s internal market. With the recent Windsor Framework brought into action, this article will analyse the future of Northern Ireland’s position within the post-Brexit situation.
Issue of Northern Ireland:
The UK has a lot of stakes when it comes to the state of Northern Ireland. Firstly, the relationship that the UK maintains with Northern Ireland has a direct effect on its political and economic reputation. The bulk of the work that requires to maintain and stabilize the region of Northern Ireland, falls upon the domestic and legislative capabilities of the United Kingdom government. If the United Kingdom fails to maintain the peace as envisioned by the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, the UK can damage its political competency. Secondly, because of the unique challenge of the Northern Ireland issue, the UK has special eyes from other countries. The UK cannot choose to ignore this issue or take actions that can affect its diplomatic relations with other countries, especially when the UK is trying for an independent free-trade agreement with the likes of the United States of America. (Bromund, 2020) Therefore, Northern Ireland is not an ordinary domestic issue for the UK to handle. It is an issue which will require long-term solutions for both parties which benefits them economically and targets maintaining peace for the long- term.
The Windsor agreement has been brought for the very purpose of correcting the wrongs of the Northern Ireland Protocol. Before Brexit, trade between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland was easy as both countries used to function under the ambit of the EU single market law. (Bloor, 2022) However, post-Brexit, a deal was required to prevent a check from being introduced for both regions. Due to this stress on securing an appropriate deal with both parties, Northern Ireland has converted into one of the biggest tests for the United Kingdom’s stable future outside the EU.
Boris Johnson’s hastily led Brexit deal led to the implementation of the Northern Ireland Protocol in 2021[i]. The Protocol continues to stand as one of the most defective and ill-thought post-Brexit policies to date[ii]. What should have been a protocol which should have boosted the relations between the United Kingdom and European Union turned out to be a reason for souring relations. The fundamental threat posed by the Northern Ireland Protocol was the proposed trade border for goods coming from Northern Ireland to the United Kingdom. (Benn, 2022 ) This led to Northern Ireland being a part of the EU single market for goods and services. Following the regulations under the EU single market, also led to the creation of a separate customs border UK and Northern Ireland, which was the primary point of contention for both nations. (Benn, 2022 ) This protocol was being witnessed as a decision regressive of the vision created under the Good Friday Agreement. Boris Johnson’s confrontational approach to the issue further eroded the trust[iii].
Border checks and guard posts were removed following the Good Friday Agreement and brought the conflict between Catholic nationalists and Protestants in the region to a halt. (Hancock, 2008 ) But the Northern Ireland Protocol created a sense of worry as the creation of a physical barrier could lead to a revisiting of the violent tensions in the region. The new checks on goods moving between mainland Britain and Northern Ireland had created chaos, upending supply chains, adding costs to businesses, and reducing the availability of certain products in Northern Ireland supermarkets[iv]. Hence, the issue which should have been handled with intricate delicacy on the policy level was an outcome of an administrative decision in contradiction to what the Good Friday Agreement was trying to follow. Windsor Framework, in that light, is a move that invites progressive development for the case of Northern Ireland. But how does Windsor Framework functions to promote that progressiveness and is that functioning sustainable in the long run?
The Promise of Windsor Framework:
Rishi Sunak’s ascendency to Prime Minister was met with the immediate pressure of restoring the fiduciary relationship between Northern Ireland, the UK, and the EU[v]. Introduced on 27th February 2023, the framework is a proposed legal agreement between the UK and EU. (McGee, 2023 ) While correcting the issues of the Northern Ireland Protocol, the framework focuses on addressing the problem of the movement of goods between both parties. The framework is important for the UK government as it focuses on lowering the trade barriers between both parties and preventing a trade war between the UK and the EU. The Windsor Framework proposes several legislative and financial changes but three major changes that are proposed within this framework are the introductions of “Green” and “Red” Lane, European Court of Justice (ECJ) Oversight and the Stormont Brake.
The “green” and “red” lane system separates the goods travelling from Great Britain to Northern Ireland from those continuing into the EU and will replace existing arrangements, requiring less paperwork on products staying within the UK than those destined for the EU. (The Economist , 2023) It also prevents introducing a separate customs border. And it’s believed that the systems of the lane can ease the business and reduce the disruption in the supply chains in Northern Ireland. Secondly, the framework authorizes oversight by the ECJ. In matters of implementation of the EU law in Northern Ireland, ECJ will continue to have the function of acting as the final arbitrator on the region. (The Economist , 2023) Even though Belfast has been concerned about the oversight of ECJ over their region, it should be noted that the points of the Northern Ireland Protocol cannot be violated.
For Belfast, EU law holds no concern over Northern Ireland but being a part of the EU single market requires functioning under the oversight of the EU. But the framework also contains what is called the Stormont Brake. (Carswell, 2023) The provision acts as a veto over whether and how the amended EU laws will be applied in Northern Ireland. The Stormont Brake acts as a measure of last resort and gives representation to the Unionists in matters of existing and new EU laws on the land. On the face of these propositions, the Windsor Framework acts as a breakthrough deal on Northern Ireland’s trading arrangements heralds a rest in the often-thorny relationship between the UK and EU and overturns the damages of Brexit[vi].
But still there remain a lot of challenges to the implementation of the Windsor Framework. When the Northern Ireland Protocol was implemented, the UK government started indicating an attitude of immediate regret towards the decision[vii]. This reaction was objected to by world leaders like Jacinda Arden, Emmanuel Macron and Joe Biden who pointed out that the UK should obey the rules and customs of international law and that the signed protocol should be respected[viii]. New Zealand and the United States of America are crucial for the UK for establishing trade relations. New Zealand is part of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). The UK needs to maintain stable relations with New Zealand as Jacinda Arden’s government has the power to include the UK in CPTPP or not.
A similar position is held with its relationship with the United States of America. President Joe Biden previously criticized Boris Johnson’s administration on the protocol stating that the 1998 Good Friday Agreement should become a casualty of the protocol[ix]. Sam Lowe, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform stated, “Biden has a specific interest in Northern Ireland and its stability and does view the UK as the antagonist in that discussion.”[x] For the UK, they need to amend its relations with Biden’s administration and increase its chances of signing a free trade agreement with Washington D.C. Therefore, not only from the standpoint of maintaining peace and stability in its own domestic, but UK’s implementation of the Windsor Framework will also be based on the contingent of maintaining international ties and fostering future economic partnerships, much needed for its post- Brexit outlook.
Conclusion:
Brexit is one of the most complicated political events of the 21st century. It doesn’t make it any easier that post- Brexit the uncertainty on issues related to politics, economics and regional institutionalism has increased due UK’s political instability which started with David Cameroon resigning and global events like Covid- 19 pandemic and Russia- Ukraine War. With Queen Elizabeth II’s passing in 2022, the UK finds itself in a position where the government is trying to build faith in a population which have been facing consecutive social and political upheavals since the referendum vote of 2016. But Windsor Framework presents itself as a beacon of hope. Other European countries should also welcome the decision as this framework presents the best chance the UK has to amend its ties with the EU and start building its post-Brexit image in international affairs. Northern Ireland's issue is not hidden from the world. It’s not inconsequential to international affairs and any sign of instability is not at all welcomed since Russia- Ukraine War has put the whole of Europe on security alert. Therefore, Windsor Framework should be welcomed as a building block to laying new foundations to post Brexit relations. This framework will also test UK’s capacity to judge how it can utilize its opportunities to amend its relations and build new diplomatic relations with other countries.
[i] Edington, Tom. (2023). “Brexit: What are the Northern Ireland Protocol and Windsor Framework?”. BBC News, UK. Brexit: What are the Northern Ireland Protocol and Windsor Framework? - BBC News
[ii] Ibid.
[iii] Ziady, Hanna. (2021). “Why would anyone trust Brexit Britain again?”. CNN Business. Why would anyone trust Brexit Britain again? | CNN Business
[iv] Mason, Chris. (2023). “Northern Ireland Protocol: New Brexit deal ‘inching towards conclusion’. BBC News, UK. Northern Ireland Protocol: New Brexit deal 'inching towards conclusion' - BBC News
[v] Turner, Lauren. (2023). “Northern Ireland Protocol: Rishi Sunak to meet Ursula von der Leyen for talks”. BBC News, Uk. Northern Ireland Protocol: Rishi Sunak to meet Ursula von der Leyen for talks - BBC News
[vi] Yashee. (2023). “Windsor Framework: What is the deal UK and EU have reached to solve the Northern Ireland Protocol tangle”. The Indian Express. Windsor Framework: What is the deal UK and EU have reached to solve the Northern Ireland Protocol tangle | Explained News,The Indian Express
[vii] Weaver, Matthew and O’Carroll, Lisa. (2023). “ Leo Varadkar admits regrets over Northern Ireland Protocol” The Guardian. Leo Varadkar admits regrets over Northern Ireland protocol | Northern Ireland | The Guardian
[viii] Ibid, Ziady, Hanna. (2021).
[ix] Ibid.
[x] Ibid.
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Pic Courstey-Jacek Dylag at unsplash.com
(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)
