This is because Sudan behoved its independence in 1956 (67 years ago), and ever since then the country has been in this internal cycle of conflict[1]. Despite the numerous attempts towards peacebuilding, negotiating, and rebuilding the nation’s ideologies it has failed. A common question about this nation is: why is this nation in a constant circle of conflict? Sudan’s case can be traced back to the ideology of ‘determination’ that was once denied by the British during colonial rule (1898-1952). Self-determination was greatly demanded by the Southern part of the States, this caused a conflict of interest between the North region of Sudan and the Southern part of Sudan[2]. South Sudanese believed strongly that they have been the subject of exploitation socially, economically, politically, and religiously. The “Addis Ababa Agreement in 1972” did bring about relative peace but the effectiveness is still questionable. This conflict of interest was one of the reasons for this wave of conflict in the region[3]. The other reason for such conflict is intricate tensions between the ethnic groups through the States who are struggling for power.

The recent Sudan Clashes between the Sudan Military and the State’s Main paramilitary forces are a result of the power struggle between the nation’s two main wings of the military. The two leaders Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan (de facto ruler of the nation) and Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (paramilitary leader) had tension between each other, a year before a 2019 uprising that ousted the dictatorial ruler the longtime President Omar al-Bashir[4]. His strategy of governing the country with 16 failed and successful coup attempts has resulted in yet again a new fight for power and control. Al-Bashir, having been through a coup himself decided that to keep his army in check thought that having a reasonable-sized paramilitary was one way to reduce threats of military coups as the executive power shifts from the regular military and adds more layers into the defense forces to prevents any rebellions[5]. This strategy however turned against Sudan.

The two army generals have coexisted with each other for over three years with an active partnership. The reason for this coexistence is the same interest in holding, maintaining, and executing power and the slow transition of the government into a civil government, however, the two leaders clashed in Khartoum and across the country which has led to yet another Sudanese war[6]. There was an increasing number of confrontations and exchanges of statements between the two leaders which lead to moving forces prepared for a conflict. The main area of conflict between Hemedti and Burhan is concerns over the security sector which includes the reform and integration of RSF into the normal army. This framework was already made into an agreement in December 2022 between the military and civilian coalition[7]. This process however has been slow, as Hemedti wanted this integration process to be spread over a decade so that he could maintain his power and influence to counterbalance the SAF, this on the other hand was called out by the army staff to only take two years.

Along with this, there have been disagreements over command and control during the integration phase where Hemedti needs the RSF to report to the civilian leaders rather than Burhan. Another point of concern was that a unified force under a civilian authority would in turn hurt Islamist elements which would further lower their position and uplift Hemedti and the RSF more. Another important cause that has been ignored or not considered is the already existing elements of former Bashir’s regime that focus on ‘deep state’ which further adds to the already disruptive society and leverages the historically marginalized armed groups of Sudan to continue their fight[8]. Due to such regimes, the old Islamist regime elements have also been successful in derailing the political agreement and undermining civilian transition as their ultimate goal is to regain their control over the State through the means of SAF.

The current Situation

The fight between the SAF and RSF broke out on 15 April 2023 and the fighting has been concentrated in densely populated areas, which started in Khartoum but now spreading across the country. The conflict has led to large waves of forced displacement, both internally and externally to the neighbours (including Egypt, Chad, Central African Republic, Libya, Ethiopia, and South Sudan)[9]. The situation can be described to be ‘worse than a nightmare’ as it could potentially lead to the collapse of Africa’s third-largest country of which 45 million people are already dependent on humanitarian aid. The conflict has led to a ‘mixed migration landscape’; a report by the Mixed Migration Centre categorizes this type of migration into six groups; involuntarily immobility, internal displacement, existing population of Sudanese who were already displaced before the conflict, Sudanese refugees outside of the country, cross-border migration, and onward movement of Sudan citizens abroad[10]. Around 334000 citizens have been displaced since the start of the conflict. According to UNHCR, more than 815000 people will have to leave Sudan which includes 580000 Sudanese and 23500 refugees from other countries if the conflict continues. Sudan is a major host for refugees in Africa, and these refugees are the most affected by the conflict[11].  

The conflict has already destroyed Sudan’s infrastructure. Shelling and Air strikes have damaged hospitals, schools, prisons, and other facilities in highly dense areas in and around Khartoum[12]. Millions of people have little or no access to clean drinking water and food, especially after all prices of food, fuel, etc have hiked marginally. As a result of this many are vulnerable to disease and due to the bombings biohazard warnings have also been given due to the destruction of labs storing samples of contagious and harmful diseases such as cholera and measles. The United Nations has already stated that 25 million people need humanitarian aid and protection, and this number is going to increase at least by another 19 million people seeking help because of the conflict[13].

Implications to the neighbourhood

The fighting in Sudan showcases a direct threat to the Horn of Africa which has already been battling conflicts and war for a long time which have been the result of insecurity in political infrastructure leading to serious humanitarian crisis. Be it Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti, or Eritrea, all of them have fought their conflicts and are still vulnerable to the recurrence of violence, therefore to them, Sudan is of great interest, especially with the increasing global importance and competition for power to dominate and control the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean[14]. The security implications of the conflict are also of most importance for the neighbors as the conflict could spill over to their borders[15]. Ethiopia for example, which borders Sudan to the west, cannot underestimate the impacts of the war on its people. The two already have claims of interdependence problems, intertwining of files, and exchange of politics which makes them both critical. Ethiopia is also wounded by its own recent Tigray conflict which ended in 2022. This has already led to displacement, food insecurity, and deeply carved ethnic tensions among Ethiopians[16]. Sudan was then a refugee’s host country but now with its tensions Ethiopia is the receiving end along with Eritrea.

It could be said that peace in the Horn of Africa seems farfetched, especially with the volatile situation in Sudan making peacebuilding or brokering tough. Although the neighbours such as Addis Ababa had taken the role to mediate Sudan’s delicate transition to democracy, the conflict made the Abiy government skeptical about the implications of the war[17]. Failure to subdue the fighting can exacerbate the already existing security crisis in the region. The insecurity will not only spread in East Africa but the arc is expected to spill over into southern Tanzania and Mozambique. South Sudan is also under major security, economic and cultural threats. The conflict is reminiscent of the historical war that led to the establishment of South Sudan[18]. If the conflict isn’t controlled, then it can lead to more disintegration of Sudan. Chad is also another vulnerable State as Sudan is intertwined with its people due to historical, social, and cultural relationships between ethnic groups[19]. Chad is now the host for over 400000 Sudanese. It already faces various threats from rebels and armed gangs along the Sudan border, the conflict is just going to empower these gangs to continue their fight[20]. Therefore the implication of the conflict is not just restricted to Sudan but the entire East African region is exposed and vulnerable and sensitive to the conflict.

The conflict in Sudan is not just hindering the peace and stability in Africa but its ripples are felt around the globe. According to The Interpreter, more than 114000 Sudanese have fled by sea to Saudi Arabia and the UN predicts more than 800000 people potentially leaving the country[xxi]. With this, there is also a risk of smuggling gold. Sudan is an important producer of gold and is struggling with making the production and the markets legal as most gold produced in the region disappears into illegal markets, and with the ongoing conflict, the process of making the system becomes even more challenging[xxii]. Sudan is also a large producer of wheat, with the war between Russia and Ukraine, Sudan was pressured to increase its wheat production to balance the gap in the market created by the Russia-Ukraine conflict[xxiii]. However, the fighting in Sudan put this goal in the background while complicating the existing brittle food chain in the country. Therefore, the conflict has made it near impossible for Sudan to achieve its ambitions of being a major exporter.

Negotiating Peace in the Region: The Role of AU

In his recent article, “(Mis) understanding and (mis) managing the Sudanese Crisis” Professor Abdelwahab El-Affendi, mentions that the African Union’s (AU) effort in peace-making in the region will fail if it doesn’t rethink its approach to the conflict[xxiv]. When the United States and Saudi Arabia volunteered to mediate a ceasefire in the region, the African Union (AU) stepped in and proposed an ‘Expanded Mechanism’ to deal with the Sudan Crisis[xxv]. While this is a positive development in the region as it indicates regional proactiveness to bring about peace and safeguard and foster democracy, there is a twist to this angle, stated by Prof. Affendi as “international dumping” meaning that the international community fancies peacekeeping and commissions a regional body to implement peace when there are violent situations in the region[xxvi].

As soon as the conflict broke out both the US and Saudi Arabia along with UAE and the UK took control of the negotiating power to ceasefire. This step was taken without any consultation and the talks were also suspended. Therefore, AU stepping in can be labeled as dumping due to the failure of the initiatives taken by the international community. The failure of the UN-sponsored December Framework Agreement between the Army in Sudan and the civilian forces has resulted in the conflict[xxvii]. Hence both the AU and the UN have not done their job diligently but rather have focused more on their status and glory. The author, Prof. Affendi also states that similar to how the Comprehensive Peace Agreement in 2005 ended in the Second Sudanese Civil War and led to independence, the August 2019 agreement marked “gradualism” which comprised farfetched commitments and goals that resulted in “war by other means”[xxviii]. Therefore, AU’s framework towards resolution is first an unconditional ceasefire immediately, next a coordinated humanitarian response, third protection of civilians and infrastructures, and lastly inclusive political reform.

To categorize the Sudanese as a conflict between two equally legitimate parties is rather misleading, as an immediate ceasefire will not achieve AU’s other objectives such as humanitarian response, civilian protection, and others hence there won’t be inclusive peace. Therefore, there is a need for greater international pressure first on RSF to pull back from hospitals, homes, and other civilian properties acquired illegally. The Jeddah Declaration of Commitment to Protect the Civilians of Sudan in May must be followed, and the AU and UN must emphasize more on this to safeguard citizens and prevent humanitarian crimes[xxix]. AU and the UN must apply their learnings from past failures in Sudan to the negotiating process, which means the removal of unnecessary AU officials and UN bureaucrats who have records of failure. Another challenge to peacebuilding in the region is the involvement of many regional and international organizations, there are about 28 parties engaged in the peacebuilding process along with the UN security council members, hence reaching consensus is difficult and flexibility will decrease[xxx]. Therefore, the AU should assign only a few competent and efficient officers who can think on their feet in an effective procedure to de-escalate the situation.

Another important group of people whose voices are ignored in the conflict is women. Women who were at the front line of Sudan’s pro-democracy movement in the last four years have now been sidelined. However, the future of the women’s movement (which already has been cracked) will prove to be critical in ensuring the country’s shift towards democracy and long-lasting peace. The Sudanese Women’s Declaration for Change No (1) emphasizes on representation of women in all sectors of decision making however this has not been followed through by the Al Bashir govt. nor have the two armies ( Sudanese Armed Forces or RSF) respect women and their role in the nation but have committed atrocities and crimes against humanity against women[xxxi]. However, one forgets that women are the backbones of society, past experiences have shown how important women's activism and participation have proven to be in a successful effort towards democracy and peace. Take the example of Liberia, the conflict started in 1999 and was finally stopped in 2003 not by guns but by the Women and mothers of Liberia who took the future of their country into their own hands[xxxii].

Therefore, the first step that must be emphasized by regional organizations and the international community is to stop the violence against women. Women must be prioritized and safeguarded in the conflict as she is the most vulnerable yet powerful in society. Women must be included in the peace-building process and must be supported by inclusive national conferences with representatives from all sectors to resolve the issue. The process must be Sudanese-led and free from any military, or pollical representation to prevent the peacebuilding process from becoming monopolized. Foreign intervention must be there but should be limited. The most important vision of the peacebuilding meeting should be an immediate ceasefire, inclusive peace, re-structuring of society, and rebuilding of the government to be democratic.

Conclusion

Sudan has now reached the brink of another civil war between the two powerful armies fighting to gain control of the region. The violence is worsening with a dangerous humanitarian situation. It is not just Sudan who is experiencing the impacts of the fighting, but the neighbours are also experiencing the tremors. Millions of people have fled the country into Chad, Ethiopia, Eretria, South Sudan, and others who themselves are suffering and more refugees are adding more pressure on their governments. Peace talks mediated by the United States and Saudi Arabia promised a safe passage for civilians and a temporary ceasefire of which both were unsuccessful. To restore peace and strive towards stability and democracy, Sudan must adopt inclusive peace that involves all actors from all sectors. Women must be equally represented in the peace process and there should be limited interference from foreign bureaucrats. AU should monitor the situation carefully and safeguarding civilians and their infrastructure must be the top priority. The international community’s role should be to put more pressure to stop the conflict rather than utilize the conflict to fulfil its interests in the region. If such measures are not prioritised the people of Sudan would have to suffer more.

Bibliography

• Yokwe, E.M. (no date) Conflict Resolution in the Sudan: A Case Study of Intolerance in Contemporary African Societies.
• Raghavan, N. (1986) The Addis Ababa Agreement and the Problem of National Integration in The Sudan.
• Fulton, A. and Holmes, O. (2023) Sudan Conflict: Why is there fighting and what is at stake in the region?, The Guardian. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/27/sudan-conflict-why-is-there-fighting-what-is-at-stake.
• Ali, H. (2023) The sudan crisis: A power struggle by design, Conflict News | Al Jazeera. Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/18/the-sudan-crisis-a-power-struggle-by-design 
• Pichon , E.M. and De , A. (2023) Sudan Crisis: Developments and implications , European Parliamentary Research Service. Available at: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/ATAG/2023/747884/EPRS_ATA(2023)747884_EN.pdf. 
• Bonfiglio, A., Frouws , B. and Forin, R. (2023) Mixed migration consequences of sudan’s conflict, Mixed Migration Centre. Available at: https://mixedmigration.org/articles/mixed-migration-consequences-sudan-conflict/
• Ferragamo , M. and Roy, D. (2023) What is the extent of Sudan’s humanitarian crisis?, Council on Foreign Relations. Available at: https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/what-extent-sudans-humanitarian-crisis (Accessed: 07 July 2023).
• Ali, H. (2023) The sudan crisis: A power struggle by design, Conflict News | Al Jazeera. Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/18/the-sudan-crisis-a-power-struggle-by-design 
• Numan Telci, I, (2022) The Horn of Africa as venue for regional competition: Motivations, instruments and relationship patterns. Insight on Africa, Issue 14, no. 1: 73-87.
• Horner, J. and Soliman, A. 12 April 2023 “Coordinating international responses to Ethiopia–Sudan tensions”, Chatham House, https://bit.ly/3L8cbr7
• Najimdeen, H.A. (2023) Sudan’s crisis and the implications for its neighbours, Al Jazeera Centre for Studies. Available at: https://studies.aljazeera.net/en/analyses/sudan%E2%80%99s-crisis-and-implications-its-neighbours#a3
• Vhumbunu, C. H. December 2018 “Reflecting on the Root Causes of South Sudan Secession: What Can Other African Leaders Learn?”, Southern Journal for Contemporary History, Vol. 43, No. 2, pp. 134-59.
• “UNHCR gravely concerned as refugees fleeing fighting in Sudan arrive in Chad”, UNHCR, 20 April 2023, https://bit.ly/3Huevrp
• Verjee, A. (2021) Five potential global consequences of Sudan’s escalating conflict, The Interpreter . Available at: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/five-potential-global-consequences-sudan-s-escalating-conflict#:~:text=Half%20a%20million%20people%20died,Nile%20were%20also%20hugely%20destructive.
• El-Affendi, A. (2023) (MIS)Understanding and (mis)managing the Sudanese crisis, Opinions | Al Jazeera. Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/6/7/misunderstanding-and-mismanaging-the-sudanese-crisis 
• Will the framework agreement in Sudan lead to democracy? (2023) Sudan In The News. Available at: https://www.sudaninthenews.com/framework-agreement/will-the-framework-agreement-in-sudan-lead-to-democracy 
• OFFICE OF THE SPOKESPERSON (2023) On the Declaration of Commitment to Protect the Civilians of Sudan, U.S. Department of State. Available at: https://www.state.gov/on-the-declaration-of-commitment-to-protect-the-civilians-of-sudan/#:~:text=The%20Kingdom%20of%20Saudi%20Arabia,Protect%20the%20Civilians%20of%20Sudan. 
• George, R.A. (2023) Resolving Sudan’s crisis will require inclusive peace, Council on Foreign Relations. Available at: https://www.cfr.org/blog/resolving-sudans-crisis-will-require-inclusive-peace
• Kuwonu, F. (2018) Women: Liberia’s Guardians of Peace | Africa Renewal, United Nations. Available at: https://www.un.org/africarenewal/magazine/april-2018-july-2018/women-liberia%E2%80%99s-guardians-peace 

End Notes

[1] Yokwe, E.M. (no date) Conflict Resolution in the Sudan: A Case Study of Intolerance in Contemporary African Societies.

[2] Ibid 1

[3] Raghavan, N. (1986) The Addis Ababa Agreement and the Problem of National Integration in The Sudan.

[4] Fulton, A. and Holmes, O. (2023) Sudan Conflict: Why is there fighting and what is at stake in the region?, The Guardian. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/27/sudan-conflict-why-is-there-fighting-what-is-at-stake.

[5] Ali, H. (2023) The sudan crisis: A power struggle by design, Conflict News | Al Jazeera. Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/18/the-sudan-crisis-a-power-struggle-by-design 

[6] Ibid 4

[7] Ibid 5

[8] Ibid 5

[9] Pichon , E.M. and De , A. (2023) Sudan Crisis: Developments and implications , European Parliamentary Research Service. Available at: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/ATAG/2023/747884/EPRS_ATA(2023)747884_EN.pdf. 

[10] Bonfiglio, A., Frouws , B. and Forin, R. (2023) Mixed migration consequences of sudan’s conflict, Mixed Migration Centre. Available at: https://mixedmigration.org/articles/mixed-migration-consequences-sudan-conflict/

[11] Ibid 10

[12] Ferragamo , M. and Roy, D. (2023) What is the extent of Sudan’s humanitarian crisis?, Council on Foreign Relations. Available at: https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/what-extent-sudans-humanitarian-crisis (Accessed: 07 July 2023).

[13] Ali, H. (2023) The sudan crisis: A power struggle by design, Conflict News | Al Jazeera. Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/18/the-sudan-crisis-a-power-struggle-by-design 

[14] Numan Telci, I, (2022) The Horn of Africa as venue for regional competition: Motivations, instruments and relationship patterns. Insight on Africa, Issue 14, no. 1: 73-87.

[15]  Ibid 14

[16] Horner, J. and Soliman, A. 12 April 2023 “Coordinating international responses to Ethiopia–Sudan tensions”, Chatham House, https://bit.ly/3L8cbr7

[17] Najimdeen, H.A. (2023) Sudan’s crisis and the implications for its neighbours, Al Jazeera Centre for Studies. Available at: https://studies.aljazeera.net/en/analyses/sudan%E2%80%99s-crisis-and-implications-its-neighbours#a3

[18] Vhumbunu, C. H. December 2018 “Reflecting on the Root Causes of South Sudan Secession: What Can Other African Leaders Learn?”, Southern Journal for Contemporary History, Vol. 43, No. 2, pp. 134-59.

[19] Ibid 17

[20] “UNHCR gravely concerned as refugees fleeing fighting in Sudan arrive in Chad”, UNHCR, 20 April 2023, https://bit.ly/3Huevrp

[xxi] Verjee, A. (2021) Five potential global consequences of Sudan’s escalating conflict, The Interpreter . Available at: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/five-potential-global-consequences-sudan-s-escalating-conflict#:~:text=Half%20a%20million%20people%20died,Nile%20were%20also%20hugely%20destructive.

[xxii] Idib 21

[xxiii] Idib 21

[xxiv] El-Affendi, A. (2023) (MIS)Understanding and (mis)managing the Sudanese crisis, Opinions | Al Jazeera. Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/6/7/misunderstanding-and-mismanaging-the-sudanese-crisis  

[xxv] Idib 24

[xxvi] Idib 24

[xxvii] Will the framework agreement in Sudan lead to democracy? (2023) Sudan In The News. Available at: https://www.sudaninthenews.com/framework-agreement/will-the-framework-agreement-in-sudan-lead-to-democracy 

[xxviii] El-Affendi, A. (2023) (MIS)Understanding and (mis)managing the Sudanese crisis, Opinions | Al Jazeera. Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/6/7/misunderstanding-and-mismanaging-the-sudanese-crisis 

[xxix] OFFICE OF THE SPOKESPERSON (2023) On the Declaration of Commitment to Protect the Civilians of Sudan, U.S. Department of State. Available at: https://www.state.gov/on-the-declaration-of-commitment-to-protect-the-civilians-of-sudan/#:~:text=The%20Kingdom%20of%20Saudi%20Arabia,Protect%20the%20Civilians%20of%20Sudan. 

[xxx] Idib 28

[xxxi] George, R.A. (2023) Resolving Sudan’s crisis will require inclusive peace, Council on Foreign Relations. Available at: https://www.cfr.org/blog/resolving-sudans-crisis-will-require-inclusive-peace

[xxxii] Kuwonu, F. (2018) Women: Liberia’s Guardians of Peace | Africa Renewal, United Nations. Available at: https://www.un.org/africarenewal/magazine/april-2018-july-2018/women-liberia%E2%80%99s-guardians-peace 

Pic Courtsey-Yulya Korban at unsplash.com

(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)