Taliban’s trail for recognition
Afghanistan has become a classic case of what all could grow wrong in a nation that becomes the playground for great power politics. Ever since the invasion of one great power and the other, from USSR to the USA, Afghanistan has not known what "peace” is. The endless turmoil and the power struggle between the conservative and extremist terrorist forces of Taliban on the one end and the relatively liberal and modern battalion of the Afghan government on the other. The dispute and disharmony went on for decades and came to a standstill with the United States decision to leave the ground of Kabul. As soon as the US withdrew their troops, the reins of power slipped into the hands of the Taliban, who saw it as a "victory" they had been violently struggling for. And, with the drop of a hat, they started "un-doing" the order of the liberal regime of President Ashraf Ghani, who fled the country. The reshuffle in the government caused massive uproar and migration, with thousands flooding the airport to leave the country somehow. This, in turn, brought the attention back to the "crisis" that is yet to unfold in Afghanistan.
In August, the takeover of the administration and the government by the Taliban forces started a new era of establishment in Afghanistan. The regime has found itself in a dire situation due to the bad shape of the economy. All these years of fight between the government and Taliban forces coerced the government to choose guns over butter. This, in effect, caused the economy to cripple and caused a massive fiscal imbalance. Therefore, it is the most crucial aspect that the Taliban government needs to fix to bring the country back on track and run a government. However, the path is not linear. The regime change marked a total cut-down on financial aid and exports that the Afghanistan government was managing. This came as a big blow to the already heckled economic crisis. The Talibani government needs "international recognition" to give its regime the "legitimacy" to work on the financial end.
The question of "recognition" is linked to multiple challenges and involves more measures than one. Apart from the Taliban and its fellow well-wishers in Pakistan and West Asia, the world's countries were not welcoming this takeover. Therefore, they are reluctant to make any quick advancements when it comes to "recognition". The countries have this realization that this hunger for recognition that the Taliban has is the only bargaining bait that the world has to offer. Hence, they don't want to make a hasty decision that gives the Taliban's autonomy to be anarchic. Taliban is choosing its words wisely every time they interact with foreign governments but is working in total neglect on the grounds.
In all their press conference, they are increasingly asking the foreign embassies to make their way back to Kabul. They are propagating the idea of "Taliban 2.0", which is dubbed as a more liberal and accommodating version of the original Taliban. However, all these claims stand nullified because the reality on the ground narrates an entirely different picture. They quickly re-name the Afghan government as "the Islamic Emirate", which revives the earlier title. Although a joint diplomatic statement was passed by the United States, China, Russia, and Pakistan, which was against the revival of this title, the Taliban forces over rid them without any consideration.
Moreover, protestors and journalists were beaten and detained for their coverage of the crisis that followed the takeover. Education for girls is completely banned, they are discouraged from taking up offices spaces, and there are elements of brutal laws like public execution that are becoming a norm. Amidst all of this, it is not in the right spirit to bestow recognition upon the Taliban government without proper negotiations and deals.
Much like before, the Taliban's all-weather ally Pakistan has become the harbinger to initiate the process of global recognition for the government. Albeit, the Pakistani President, put forth the conditions of recognition in sync with the SCO Summit in Dushanbe, which commands the Taliban to work as an inclusive regime, promising human rights, and make sure that Afghanistan's territory doesn't become a breeding ground for terrorists. However, these considerations don’t make a sound point for women rights, which are bluntly crushed under the regime.
The question of recognition is not a standalone concern; it has also become a matter of "kingmaker" politics. Increasingly, countries in the vicinity, from Pakistan to India and China to Russia, along with the perpetual player the United States, wants to determine and design the destiny of Afghanistan while keeping their national interest intact. This has further complicated the scenario. For instance, Pakistan is hopeful that the Taliban would help it root out the anti-Pakistan militants in the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which has become violent following the regime change. Likewise, India doesn't want to let loose of its grip over Afghan affairs given the capacity-building measures it has been doing in Afghanistan, along with being vocal for democracy and human rights.
Meanwhile, for the big three, the US, Russia and China, it has become a question about exerting their international influence and taking charge of the Asian Drama. Furthermore, the countries of the European Union are firm on their stand that allowing a Terrorist regime to gain control over the country will only set a precedent for violent terrorist forces worldwide to follow the trail. They are concerned with figuring out a way that bypasses the regime and makes humanitarian aid available.
The countries have their stakes and calculations for the “recognition” affair. Former President Hamid Karzai stressed that the Taliban government needs legitimacy on a national level to demand recognition internationally. He proposed elections or conducting a national assembly, namely, “Loya Jirga”. Moreover, he is critical of the Pakistani government becoming a mouthpiece for the Talibani regime. The political developments around the issue are taking a new turn almost every passing day. The reports that the US is working on a 'roadmap" for the "recognition" of the Taliban government has alerted the fellow aspirants of the great power politics. The Biden administration has reinitiated the Doha Peace Process. The United States has recruited Tom West as the US Special Representative for Afghanistan, who went to Brussels to meet the NATO allies and brief them about the US plans. Following the meeting with NATO, West headed towards Pakistan for a discussion of "Troika Plus". Troika was initially formed by Russia, with China and the US to end the armed conflict in Afghanistan. The current version that is the extension of the Troika has Pakistan as a party as well. India has not been made a part of this extension, stating that this would divert the grouping from the Taliban issue, and the focus would shift on the India-Pakistan rivalry.
Furthermore, the United States is also considering releasing Afghanistan's blocked funds in American banks pegged at $9.5 billion. In addition, there are speculations that to isolate the US from the bigger picture, China and Russia might team up with member states in West Asia to establish a dialogue to recognize the Taliban collectively. Therefore, this has mounted pressure on the United States to act quickly and consciously.
A question is here for India, which refused to indulge with Taliban 2.0, and the increasing developments have not included India in full swing. This has raised questions on India's diplomatic negotiations because Afghanistan has been an essential variable in its international engagements and great power pursuit. Hence, India needs to buckle up and bounce back and be more articulate and calculative about its stand. The Taliban regime, sooner or later, will manage to gain the needed "legitimacy", it is upon the states to put their best foot forward and make the most of this bargaining chip before it is too late.
REFERENCES
1. Taliban needs legitimacy at home to gain international recognition, The Times of India, October 2021.
2. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/87128759.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
3. Leveraging the Taliban’s Quest for International Recognition. United Institute of Peace. March 2021.
4. *Afghanistan-Peace-Process_Talibans-Quest-for-International-Recognition.pdf (usip.org)
5. History and the Recognition of the Taliban, Lawfare, August 2021.
6. History and the Recognition of the Taliban - Lawfare (lawfareblog.com)
7. Taliban still struggling for international recognition, Aljazeera, October 2021.
8. Taliban still struggling for international recognition | Taliban News | Al Jazeera
9. US Taliban recognition would be a game-changer, Asia Times, November 2021.
10. US Taliban recognition would be a game-changer - Asia Times
11. US Recognition of Taliban Govt Will is Game Changer, News Click, November 2021.
12. US Recognition of Taliban Govt Will be Game Changer | NewsClick
13. What is Troika Plus? And why has India been kept out? The Brief Bulletin, August 2021.
14. What is Troika Plus? And why has India been kept out? Tap to know more (thebriefbulletin.com)
15. Pakistan Coaches Taliban On Winning International Recognition, NDTV, October 2021.
16. Pakistan Coaches Taliban On Winning International Recognition (ndtv.com)
Pic Courtesy-Marko Beljan at unsplash.com
(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)
