Takeaways from the recent SCO Meeting

Further agenda included strengthening multilateralism and recognizing the recent surge in protectionism, isolationism, and unilateralism creating a difficult situation for global governance. Chinese President Xi Jinping in his speech stated that zero-sum games and bloc politics should be rejected and the UN-centred international state order should be safeguarded while practicing common values based on humanity. He further added that the SCO should expand its exchanges with other organizations both international and regional to foster true multilateralism and enhance global governance in order to ensure that the international state system is just and equitable.

Focusing on regional security cooperation and maintaining regional stability, the declaration of the Summit states that members of SCO have expressed their concerns over threats of separatism, extremism, and terrorism and that they strongly condemn such acts around the world. The declaration further stated that the member nations of the SCO must reaffirm their commitment to combating issues like separatism, extremism, and terrorism, undertake measures to counter channels of finance, cross-border movement, radicalization, and recruitment of youth and neutralize sites used as safe havens by terror groups. Other important themes of the Summit included the member nations reiterating their support of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the inclusion of Iran as a permanent member, and acceptance of other nations’ applications under the provisions of the SCO Charter, the 2010 adopted regulation on the admission of new members and the procedures for granting membership in SCO [2]. The appeal to join the SCO by the President of Belarus saw unilateral approval by the SCO member states while Turkiye’s President announced that he intends to apply for a permanent position in the SCO during the next summit which is to be held in India [3].

Major takeaways from the summit:

According to the Eurasian Research Institute, five takeaways can be drawn from the summit [4]. Firstly, the growing number of member countries shows the growing interest of other nations in joining the SCO. Apart from granting permanent membership to Iran and launching the accession procedure for Belarus, the SCO has granted dialogue partner status to Kuwait, Maldives, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), meanwhile agreeing to include Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt as new dialogue partners. Secondly, the expansion of SCO by including new members from the Central Asian region highlights Central Asia’s geopolitical significance. SCO has also been regarded as a possible platform for Eurasian leaders as an alternative to the G20 or G7. The expansion of SCO validates that a similar thought process runs among the leaders in the Eurasian region. Thirdly, the SCO provides a platform for discussion of important issues in bilateral, trilateral, or multilateral settings. In this meeting, for instance, there was much anticipation for the first non-virtual bilateral talk between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping since the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Although this bilateral meeting along the sidelines of SCO did not yield any significant output, the Russian side stated that it strongly appreciates that there is a balanced view regarding the issue of the crisis in Ukraine and that it understands the Chinese concerns regarding the same. Fourthly, the discussions at the summit emphasized connectivity and economic cooperation. Amidst the ongoing diplomatic friction between Russia and the Western nations, the leaders of the Central Asian region expressed their wish to optimize their routes of transport. For instance, apart from the emphasis on BRI in terms of economic cooperation and connectivity, the leaders of China, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan stressed the importance of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway corridor, President Tokayev of Kazakhstan stated the completion of the Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran corridor during a bilateral meeting with President Raisi of Iran and Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged to accelerate the completion of the Chabahar Port project and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). Finally, despite the crisis in Ukraine, standoffs at the borders of Armenia and Azerbaijan, and similar tensions emerging between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, the issue of Afghanistan was widely discussed in the context of regional security and stability.

Russia’s agenda for the meeting:

For Russia, the meeting was a possible way forward to demonstrate that it is not isolated in the international community after its invasion of Ukraine. However, this did not go in favor of Russia as there was no overt support towards Russia either by China or India. On one hand, Prime Minister Narendra Modi stated that “today is not an era of war” and China on the other did not make any obvious remarks regarding the crisis. In fact, President Xi Jinping was persuaded By President Putin to acknowledge their concerns over the crisis in Ukraine [5]. In the context of PM Modi’s remarks regarding the Ukrainian crisis, the coordinator for strategic communications at the US National Security Council, John Kirby stated that through his actions Vladimir Putin is actually isolating himself in the international arena. He further stated that it is not the right time to make business as usual with Russia considering its actions toward Ukraine. In this regard, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken further stated that responses from China and India reflect the global concerns about the consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine [6].

China’s agenda for the meeting:

At the summit, China showed its support towards the expansion of SCO, signed Iran’s admission for permanent membership, and endorsed Belarus’ membership application review. China further added Kuwait, UAE, Myanmar, Bahrain, and the Maldives as dialogue partners. These actions hint that China’s agenda for the summit included accumulating support for its anti-US narratives. China’s Overall National Security Outlook, released on 17 February 2014 marked a shift in the CCP’s perspective of traditional and non-traditional aspects of national security where the external environment requires caution against a variety of attacks instead of a “period of strategic opportunity” as mentioned by Jiang Zemin in 2002. For this, President Xi Jinping expanded its security cooperation in countering traditional security threats by committing to training 2,000 law enforcement personnel of SCO member countries in the next five years. While addressing the non-traditional security challenges like supply chain resilience, outer space security, food, and energy security, President Xi pushed China’s Global Security Initiative (GSI). The GSI is based on the idea that no nation can enhance its security capabilities at the expense of other nations and it is said that China would need the major countries of SCO i.e., India and Russia to implement GSI at the global level. China’s understanding of security challenges is broad and not static, which is why Beijing would need institutions like the SCO to enhance its political clout [7]. Under the leadership of President Xi Jinping, China has increased its threshold of risk-taking to meet its vital interests, and its approach is anticipated to be more assertive after the 20^th National Congress. Therefore, China is likely to undertake more engagements in Central Asia and Afghanistan in terms of energy and security transition.

India’s agenda for the meeting:

India undertook four bilateral talks during the summit with Iran, Russia, Turkey, and Uzbekistan. With India’s enhanced status as a regional power, PM Modi’s engagements at the summit provide an insight into India’s approach in the region. On the economic front, India highlighted the major disruptions caused by Covid-19 and the Ukrainian crisis to international trade, supply chain resilience, and food and energy security. Since India’s ambition to become a manufacturing hub can only be accomplished with a strong supply chain mechanism, it is essential for India to cooperate and collaborate with other major economies in the region. In this regard, PM Narendra Modi urged for transit rights to ensure strong supply chains and enhanced connectivity as India has in the past struggled to access Central Asian markets in the absence of transit rights across Pakistan’s territory. PM Modi clarified his position on making India a people-centric development model which in turn will transform the population into a competitive workforce. With a focus on increasing collaboration and innovation in the growing Indian startup industry, PM Modi further added that this model can also be used by other SCO member countries.

The summit marked the first face-to-face interaction between Prime Minister Modi and President Putin since the pandemic. Regarding the Ukrainian crisis, PM Modi clarified his position that he wishes for the crisis to end affirming the need for democracy, dialogue, and diplomacy. PM Modi believes that the war has caused global disruptions in the food and energy sectors in addition to affecting the supply chain mechanism and has caused major damage to most countries. Further, both leaders discussed collaboration in fertilizer exports while cooperation in the defense and energy sector is likely to remain intact [8]. As of now, even though the Indian and Russian leadership disagree on the issue of Ukraine, the time-tested bilateral relation between India and Russia remains strong which is likely to be profitable for India.

India will be taking over the presidency of SCO and will host the next summit in 2023 marking its careful rise in global leadership both at the diplomatic and strategic levels. Meanwhile, Iran’s permanent position in the SCO puts India, as a democratic nation among three autocratic nations. India is aware of the potential benefits that collaboration within the SCO can bring to enhance India’s trade relations with other countries in the region especially when East Asia is anticipated to become the next center of the global economy.

Conclusion:

The 22nd Summit of the SCO comes at an interesting time. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there has been constant diplomatic friction between the West and Russia leading to multiple geopolitical uncertainties. In this regard, the individually strong bilateral relations of Russia with India and China were seen as an edge falling in Russia’s favor. However, Russia found itself somewhat isolated when it came to garnering overt support for itself regarding the Ukrainian crisis. Considering the post-Russian invasion of Ukraine world has seen enhanced cooperation between Russia and China, it was anticipated that Russia will use the platform with the agenda of balancing itself against the West. Further, other developments regarding the expansion of SCO and the inclusion of Iran as a permanent member hint at major changes in the geopolitical dynamics in the coming years.

Endnotes:

1.       Rebecca Nadin, Ilyada Nijhar and Elvira Mami, “Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit 2022 Key Takeaways”, ODI, 23 September 2022 https://odi.org/en/insights/shanghai-cooperation-organisation-summit-2022-key-takeaways/

2.     Xu Tao, “Takeaways from the SCO Summit”, China-US Focus, 27 September 2022 https://www.chinausfocus.com/foreign-policy/takeaways-from-the-sco-summit

3.      Albina Muratbekova, “2022 SCO Summit in Samarkand: Key Takeaways”, Eurasian Research Institute https://www.eurasian-research.org/publication/2022-sco-summit-in-samarkand-key-takeaways/

4.     Albina Muratbekova, “2022 SCO Summit in Samarkand: Key Takeaways”, Eurasian Research Institute https://www.eurasian-research.org/publication/2022-sco-summit-in-samarkand-key-takeaways/

5.     Cordelia Buchanan Ponczek, Mary Glantz, Carla Freeman, and Vikram J. Singh, “Modi, Putin, and Xi Join the SCO Summit Amid Turbulent Times”, United States Institute of Peace, 22 September 2022, https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/09/modi-putin-and-xi-join-sco-summit-amid-turbulent-times

6.     “Putin is isolating himself', says White House stressing on PM Modi's message to Russian President”, WION News, 17 September 2022 https://www.wionews.com/world/putin-is-isolating-himself-white-house-weighs-in-after-pm-modis-message-to-putin-517008

7.     Rebecca Nadin, Ilyada Nijhar and Elvira Mami, “Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit 2022 Key Takeaways”, ODI, 23 September 2022 https://odi.org/en/insights/shanghai-cooperation-organisation-summit-2022-key-takeaways/

8.     Harshana Ghoorhoo, “Outcomes for India from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit 2022”, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 6 October 2022 https://www.csis.org/blogs/new-perspectives-asia/outcomes-india-shanghai-cooperation-organization-summit-2022

Pic Courtsey-Pankaj Jha

(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)