Taiwan, the tiny island nation of 23 million people under the leadership of President Tsai Ing-wen, has defied the might of the colossus mainland China to maintain its identity as a sovereign state, despite the latter’s threat of use of force to integrate with the mainland.Taiwan had a split with China during civil war in 1949. Ever since the Nationalist leader Chiang Kai-shek fled the mainland China on 8 December 1949 to what was then called Formosa and present day Taiwan after steadily losing ground to the communist forces of Mao Zedong, the Cross-Strait relations have remained in a constant state of tensions, and threaten to alter the security environment in the Asian region. While China has consistently maintained Taiwan as a part of its territory and periodically reminds it to abjure any aspiration of independence with the threat of use of force to integrate, Taiwan has stood its ground to maintain its identity as a separate nation. The “two Chinas†scenario has remained since in the realm of debate in international diplomacy. After sporadic combat with the communist armies, the Nationalist forces have maintained a thaw but tensions continue to remain under the impact of China’s continuous belligerence.
On the onset of the Cold War, when the Truman administration recognised the Nationalist government on Taiwan, it infuriated Mao, ending any possibility for diplomatic relations between the US and the People’s Republic of China (PRC). In the years after 1949, the US continued its support of Taiwan, and Mao’s government continued to rail against the Nationalist regime off its coast. By the 1970s, however, US policymakers, desirous of opening economic relations with China and hoping to use China as a balance against Soviet power, moved toward a closer relationship with communist China. In 1979, the US officially recognised the People’s Republic of China. Then Secretary of State Henry Kissinger’s secret visit to China to prepare ground for President Richard Nixon’s visit to China subsequently is popular folklore now.
This diplomatic switch did not deter the US to maintain and deepen economic ties with Taiwan and also guaranteed its security by selling arms under the provisions of Taiwan Relations Act of 1979. The Act’s aim has been to maintain peace, security, and stability in the Western Pacific and to promote the foreign policy of the US by authorising the continuation of commercial, cultural, and other relations between the peoples of the US and Taiwan.
The current tensions further heightened after the 63-year-old Tsai was sworn on 20 May 2020 as President for her second term. Since she came to power in 2017, Tsai has maintained Taiwan’s identity as a sovereign nation but just short of declaring independence. During her second term, Tsai is expected to “put down the markers†on Taiwanese sovereignty but not cross China’s red lines. She is expected to tread cautiously on Cross-Strait relations.
Tsai and her Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won a landslide victory in January elections. It was seen as a referendum on the future of Taiwan and Cross-Strait relations with Beijing. Tsai has consistently rejected Beijing’s claim of one-China principle and faced China’s wrath and threat of use of force. Her party is fiercely against China’s claim on the nation. While overtly not antagonising Beijing, Tsai has maintained a consistent policy as a formidable opponent of China and has pursued policy that promises Taiwanese people sovereignty and dignity.
Beijing however has not fallen short of intimidating the tiny island and escalated the number and intensity of military drills around the island in recent months, including a 36-hour air force endurance exercise in April and a first-ever night-time drill in March. If Beijing’s sabre-rattling continues, it could have the opposite effect on Tsai who might harden her position on Cross-Strait relations. As Taiwan successfully dealt in combating Covid-19, Tsai’s re-election could be neuralgic to Beijing. While she is not expected to cross the red-line, the people of Hong Kong could see Taiwan as a model and wish to be like the Taiwanese people. So, indirectly Taiwan’s success could inspire Hong Kong as well in their current fight for freedom as the people in Taiwan celebrate their flourishing democracy that embraces diversity and aspire for still a better future under Tsai’s leadership.
Starting her second term, Tsai called for stability with China even as Beijing claims it as its own territory. Rejecting China’s ‘one country, two systems’ policy, Tsai made it clears that she will not accept Beijing’s political terms that would downgrade Taiwan and undermine the Cross-Strait status quo. Beijing has championed the ‘one country, two systems’ approach for governing both former British colony Hong Kong and Taiwan.
Though Beijing used economic power by liberally making donations to small countries as enticement to switch diplomatic ties with China and to some extent succeeded in internationally isolating Taiwan leaving it only with 14 countries maintaining diplomatic relations, the island of 23 million people is able to exercise all roles of a sovereign nation, such as issuing its own passports, maintaining its own military and legal system and serving as a crucial hub in the global high-tech supply chain. Taipei also maintains unofficial links with dozens more United Nations member states.
Tsai has resolved that she would work hard towards increasing Taiwan’s presence at international platforms. The latest in this endeavour was to maintain its presence in the World Health Organisation (WHO), whose relevance has assumed greater salience now in the midst of the pandemic worry internationally.
After Tsai’s DPP came to power and she refused to adhere to the ‘one China policy’. China cut off ties with Tsai’s government, and blocked Taiwan’s way in joining international platforms such as the WHO, and prevented the island nation to grow its diplomatic ties with other countries. Taiwan attended the World Health Assembly (WHA) as an observer from 2009-2016, but since 2017, China has blocked its participation after Tsai was elected as Taiwan’s President.
So far as India is concerned, it does not have diplomatic relations with Taiwan but maintains a robust relationship in the economic and cultural areas. Taiwan’s representative office in India called Taipei Economic and Cultural Center with a country representative as its head is no where less than a diplomatic mission as it is engaged in several areas of cooperation such as economic and socio-cultural ties between with India and Taiwan with focus on trade, investment, tourism and education. Economic engagement, the soft power element by way of academic exchanges, tourism, developmental assistance program and people-to-people contact remain the basis of India-Taiwan relations. Even on the geopolitical issue, both India and Taiwan are particularly interested in developments in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly in the South China Sea.
WHO Issue
In view of the understanding between India and Taiwan, Taiwan appealed to India on 16 May to endorse its demand that the country be allowed to participate in the 73rd edition of WHA in Geneva on 18-19 May to share its experiences in fighting the Covid-19. But two days later, Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu declared Taiwan’s decision to postpone efforts in the WHA as an observer after the contested island did not receive an invitation. It is possible Taiwan found no merit in pursuing its case as the event which is usually held in Geneva over a three-week long period was shortened to just two days. The US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was scathing on WHO of playing politics while human lives were at stake and accused it to succumbing to Chinese pressure by not inviting Taiwan. Trump’s backing of Taiwan to gain observer status in efforts to quickly contain the pandemic, gained backing from Canada and New Zealand as well.
Taiwanese envoy in India, Chung-Kwang Tien, expressed his dismay that the WHO had caved into China’s “unreasonable interference and discontinued its practice of issuing invitations to Taiwan to attend the WHA as an observer.†Beijing has toughened its position since Tsai came to power for her first term and invigorated efforts to internationally isolate Taiwan. Since this time the WHA was a short duration affair, Taiwan has not lost much by missing it out.
In the meantime, the Chinese embassy in New Delhi, issued a note reminding New Delhi that Taiwan being part of China, has no right to join the WHO. It said that the WHO is a specialised agency of the UN composed of sovereign states, and as part of China, Taiwan has no right to join the WHO, and therefore “its participation in the activities of the WHO and other international organisations must be arranged through cross-strait consultations under the one-China principleâ€. Chung-Kwang Tien countered by asserting that “Taiwan and China are separate jurisdictions, neither subordinate to the other.†He further observed: “Regrettably, since 2017, the WHO has continually caved in to China’s unreasonable interference and discontinued its practice of issuing invitations to Taiwan to attend the WHA as an observerâ€. It is desirable that WHO should set aside political considerations and allow Taiwan to participate in WHO meetings and activities, particularly those concerning Covid-19.
President Trump has accused the current Director General of WHO, Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, as a stooge of China. Hailing from Ethiopia, where Ghebreyesus was Health and Foreign Minister, it cannot be overlooked that China’s economic footprint in Ethiopia is huge. Trump controversially suspended funding in April and has threatened to pull out of the organisation completely unless it undertakes reforms to function objectively. Trump was miffed that WHO squashed efforts to allow Taiwanese officials to share best practices from its COVID-19 mitigating campaign with other countries.
Beijing’s firm position
Even as Tsai is loathed by Beijing because she views Taiwan as a de facto sovereign state, and not part of ‘one China’, Beijing sharpened its attack on the eve of Tsai’s inauguration of office, saying that it will “never tolerate†Taiwan’s separation from China. As mentioned earlier, China considers the democratic, self-governing island as part of its territory, and has repeatedly advocated for its eventual reunification with the mainland using military force if necessary. At best, Beijing would be willing to consider adhering to the principles of “peaceful reunification†and “one country, two systemsâ€, similar to the framework it uses to govern the semi-autonomous city of Hong Kong.
The position of the US
Beijing needs to factor that Taiwan is one of US’ main allies against China’s threats of using military force against the country. If China indeed uses military force or even attempts to do so, the US is not expected to remain a mute spectator and almost immediately would intervene in massive retaliation, the consequences of which Beijing would find hard to rejoice. That scenario would be disastrous for all stakeholders and the region as well. In sending a congratulatory statement to Tsai on her inauguration of office for the second term in office, Pompeo remarked: “The United States has long considered Taiwan a force for good in the world and a reliable partner. We have a shared vision for the region on that included rule of law, transparency, prosperity, and security for allâ€. This assurance has come at a time when trade frictions between the US and China has ballooned and conspiracy theories about the origin of the virus are showing no signs of thawing. Beijing should take note of this.
Even as China uses the pandemic to boost military pressure on Taiwan, a recent US Congressional report warns of aggressive actions by the PLA against Taipei. The US-China Economic and Security Review Commission was alarmed that Chinese military forces are engaging in repeated aggressive actions by flying fighter aircrafts close to Taiwan’s borders in order to intimidate the island nation. The uptick in aggression near embattled Taiwan is likely to further raise tensions between the US and China.
In order to ward off the Chinese military threat, the US has also been strengthening Taiwan’s military by selling advanced military aircrafts and other supporting equipment. The US is also supporting Taiwan’s domestic base for production of military hardware. In January, the US Department of Defense asked Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., which makes components for the US military’s F-35 fighter jet, to begin producing parts in the US, fearing Chinese interference. Also, Pentagon’s top official for East Asia, Heino Klinck, paid an unofficial visit to Taiwan in November 2019 to examine options to shore up Taiwan’s defences.
The recent Chinese incursions into the territorial waters of countries having claims to the EEZ in South China Sea have raised alarms about Chinese military threat. The cases of the sinking of a Vietnamese fishing boat by Chinese coast guard ships and threats to a Philippine Navy ship are latest examples of Chinese aggressive behaviour. In order to reassure the smaller Asian countries coming under Chinese military pressure, the US Navy conducted in late April 2020 two freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea to send a clear message to Beijing that the US will continue to protect freedom of navigation and commerce.
As the WHA event in Geneva was truncated into a two-day affair, Taiwan did not lose much this time when it decided not pursue its case to attend as an observer. Taiwan expects India to back its cause when the event takes place next year. Given the robust relationship both Taiwan and India maintain in all dimensions, and the kind of troubled relations India has with China, India need not feel shy to remain reticent and openly come to Taiwan’s support when it counts.
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Pic courtesy-Thomas Tucker on unsplash.com
(Prof. Rajaram Panda is Lok Sabha Research Fellow, Parliament of India and Member, Governing Council of Indian Council of World Affairs, and Centre for Security and Strategic Studies, both in New Delhi. He was also Senior Fellow at IDSA and ICCR Chair Professor at Reitaku University, Japan.)
(The views expressed are personal)