Taiwan: A Thorn in China’s flesh

Two centuries ago, the legendary conqueror of France Napoleon Bonaparte is believed to have observed China as a “sleeping lion” and feared that when the lion wakes, “she will shake the world”. The late Emperor of France could be partly right in his prophesy since China has awakened, as declared by President Xi Jinping in his trip to Europe in April 2014[i]. But Xi could be wrong. Though the giant is stirring as it begins to wake up, the world need not fear as the world situation is different than what it was two centuries ago. Though China has achieved economic prosperity by pursuing its predatory policies and acquired threatening military muscle, and despite its demonstration of intimidating power, the world does not fear China. Yes, China is a challenge and coping up to this challenge is yet another challenge for the world today. It will be impossible for a single country to take on the rest of the world, despite that it has tried to create debt trap in several countries world-over through its BRI project aimed at economic strangulation and tried to buy allegiance in its favour.

The US report of 2018 on National Defense Strategy observed: “China is leveraging military militarization, influence operations, and predatory economic to coerce neighboring countries to reorder the Indo-Pacific region to their advantage”.[ii] The Pacific region looks like the key location where a showdown between the US and China could be a possibility[iii] as the US most likely to come to the rescue of its allies in Asia should China cross the red line. 

Now China has extended its predatory activities and expanded maritime footprint even to the African continent. The military base that it established in Djibouti in 2017 is a demonstration of this assertion.[iv]  

For Asia, the Taiwan issue is a test case as are others. This article shall focus to examine in a comprehensive manner how a tiny nation has the courage to stand in defying China’s might and intimidation. The broad aspects to be covered are Taiwan’s status, China’s policy towards Taiwan, relevance of Taiwan to the US policy, China’s naval presence and intrusion into Taiwan’s airspace and possible policy for India to pursue towards Taiwan.  

TAIPEI Act

Despite that the US decided to establish diplomatic relations with China in 1979 and subscribed to the “One China” policy, it is committed to protect and defend Taiwan. Taiwan’s relevance in the US strategic calculus is more relevant now than ever before. It already has the Taiwan Relations Act and committed to sale arms and defending Taiwan’s sovereignty if it comes under attack from any quarter.

In order to inject greater robustness to the US-Taiwan ties, the US President Donald Trump already at loggerheads with China signed the Taiwan Allies and International Protection and Enhancement Initiative Act (TAIPEI)[v]. The TAIPEI Act enhances US support for Taiwan by encouraging other nations to engage with the island and punishing those who follow the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) orders to isolate it. What it meant in real terms was that there shall be consequences for supporting Chinese actions that undermine Taiwan. After debates and some revisions, the bill was passed by the House of Representatives on a 415-0 vote, implying that the entire establishment is on the same page on the country’s policy on Taiwan. The Senate too gave unanimous consent to the bill on 11 March.

Interestingly, the architects of the Act were Republican Senator Cory Gardner and Democrat Chris Coons, who were keen to strengthen US alliances, with Coons calling to checkmate Beijing’s “bullying tactics”.[vi]     

Taiwan enjoyed observer status at the World Health Organisation (WHO) under the name “Chinese Taipei” since 2009 when the cross-Taiwan Strait relations were improved under the Ma Ying-jeou administration. However, the status was revoked after Tsai’s election in 2016. The US was irked with China’s pressure on the WHO to block Taiwan to attend the important meeting with observer status to discuss the pandemic issue. China hardened its position after Tsai Ing-wen was elected in 2016 and again re-elected in 2019. Taiwan rightly objected to its exclusion as “outrageous”.[vii] Over the past few years, China has engaged in an economic and political campaign to isolate Taiwan by bringing and intimidating its allies into abandoning the island and switching their formal diplomatic recognition to Beijing. Since 2016, when pro-democracy Tsai came to power, eight countries that were Taiwan’s allies came under China’s pressure and switched allegiance in favour of Beijing, leaving Taiwan with only 15 diplomatic allies.[viii] Tsai described the Chinese move as “part of a series of diplomatic and military acts of coercion. 

The TAIPEI Act is a clear message of America’s commitment to uphold values Taiwan stand for. Taiwanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs was pleased and hailed the Act as a “testament to Taiwan-U.S. friendship” and reflected the strength of bilateral ties, besides paving ways for expanded bilateral exchanges. As expected, Beijing reacted angrily and threatened “a resolute strike back” if the law was implemented. Not being deterred, Beijing renewed its military intimidation against Taiwan by conducting provocative naval and air drills and by violating Taiwan’s airspace by flying military jets.[ix] Calling the US move as an attempt to interfere in China’s domestic affairs, Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian called the Act a “severe violation of the one-China principle”.[x]

The larger context of the Act is that it strengthens Taiwan’s alliances around the world amid increased Chinese pressure, besides addressing clash over Taiwan’s exclusion from WHO meetings. It is also a demonstration and reinforcement of US commitment to back Taiwan’s free-market democracy and its international standing as a vibrant economy based on market-led growth. Under the bill, the US will consider reducing its economic, security and diplomatic engagement with nations that take significant actions to undermine Taiwan.

The TAIPEI Act allows the US to advocate for Taiwan’s membership in all international organisations in which statehood is not a requirement. The US now says that Taiwan should be granted observer status in other appropriate international organisations. 

Taiwan strengthening its military capability

In view of the continuous Chinese threat of use of force to integrate with the mainland, Taiwan, though is assured of the US protection, is also arming itself to meet with any immediate Chinese threat. It is planning to buy from the US land-based Harpoon anti-ship missiles as part of its military modernisation efforts to deal with a rising threat from China. The Harpoon missiles expected to be delivered in 2023 shall serve as a coastal defence cruise missile.[xi] Though the US, like most countries, has no official diplomatic ties with Taiwan, is bound by law to provide the democratic island with the means to defend itself. This is because China claims Taiwan as its own territory and routinely denounces US arms sales to Taiwan. 

Since most of Taiwan’s military supplies are sourced from the US, Taiwan’s military have received proper training and well-equipped with US-made hardware. On the other hand, China has huge numerical superiority and is adding advanced equipment of its own such as stealth fighters. With the US notifying the Congress of a possible sale of advance torpedoes to Taiwan worth around $180 million, tensions with China are bound to rise further.[xii] 

Chinese warships are also frequently travelling through the Taiwan Strait to deter China’s possible adventurism. The US is also deepening ties with the island via the 2018 Taiwan Travel Act.[xiii] Taiwan feels reassured when the US threatens “consequences” for nations that fail to toe the US line on Taiwan. This statement came after the TAIPEI Act was passed.[xiv] 

When in July 2019, the US State Department approved the sale to Taiwan with $2.2 billion worth of military technology, including tanks and surface-to-air missiles,[xv]it threatened to exacerbate deteriorating ties between Washington and Beijing. As usual the deal drew China’s ire. China saw the deal as violation of its “One China” policy to which the US is committed in principle. The purchase included 108 units of M1A2T Abrams Tanks, which Taipei plans to use against China if it tries to reclaim sovereignty over the island. The Pentagon maintains that the sale will not influence the “basic military balance” in the region and will merely “enhance” Taiwan's ability “to meet current and future regional threats and to strengthen its homeland defense.”[xvi]

The deal came in two parts: first part included 108 M1A2T tanks, as well as Hercules armoured vehicles and heavy equipment transporters; second included more than $220 million in Stinger anti-aircraft missiles. These weapons were meant to provide Taiwan with greater deterrence capabilities against the growing military threat from China. These military sales by the US to Taiwan are legal and legitimate as these are in accordance with the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979[xvii], under which the US has the responsibility to provide Taiwan with weapons of a defensive nature to deter an attack from China and therefore not a violation of the One China policy. In view of China’s continuous intransigence, the US decided in July 1982 to broaden its support with a document known as the Six Assurances[xviii], the first of which stated that Washington would not set a date for ending arms sales to Taiwan. In addition to the approved arms packages in 2019, Taiwan had also requested in February same year 66 F-16V fighter jets. Subsequently, in April the US approved a $500 million package that included F-16 parts and training.  

As it has transpired now, exactly a year after the arms sales deal, China does not seem deterred. On the contrary it has intensified further military activities to intimidate Taiwan. As a consequence, the security scenario in the region has been dramatically altered. In the new situation that has emerged, ties between the US and Taiwan have emerged as the strongest and assumed robustness during the Trump administration since official diplomatic relations were severed 41 years ago. This did not stop China’s defense minister General Wei Fenghe to remark at the Shangri-La Dialogue security summit in June 2019 in Singapore that “any interference in the Taiwan question is doomed to failure” and that “no attempt to split China will succeed”.[xix] 

Following the arms sales deal between the US and Taiwan in 2019, China threatened to impose sanctions on US enterprises involved in arms sales to Taiwan.[xx] China’s foreign ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang remarked that “US arms sales to Taiwan constitute a serious violation of international law and the basic norms governing international relations”. Going further, the spokesperson of China’s Ministry of National Defense said that “Taiwan issue concerns China’s core interests and the national feeling of the Chinese people, and forbids external disturbance”.[xxi]    

China violates Taiwan’s airspace

Not to give up, China is not deterred and “determined for War”. It has ordered fighter jets to circle Taiwan to intimidate the island.[xxii] Several PLA fighter jets, Su-30s briefly entered Taiwan’s air defense identification zone southwest of Taiwan. Taiwan’s Air Force responded with radio warnings and monitored their movements and until they flew off. To counter the Chinese incursions, a US military C-40A transport plane also flew in Taiwan’s airspace in early June 2020 with Taiwan’s permission and following proper procedures. The flight path of the US transport plane directly over Taiwan was rather “rare” because such operations are normally limited to international waters or airspace around Taiwan. This demonstrated the increasing military collaboration between the US and Taiwanese military aimed at deterring China from being a bully.

Normally, Chinese planes fly side of the ‘middle line’ of the Straits but this time they flew to the southwestern “airspace” of Taiwan to intimidate the island nation. Such activities are likely to be more frequent in the coming days and the US is expected to respond commensurately. Taiwan is prepared to respond within its capability. Its annual “Han Kuang” war games through July-September 2020 will “test the country’s asymmetric capabilities to ward off hostile forces at sea and along its beaches”.[xxiii] In a symbolic gesture, the US warship sailed through the Taiwan Strait on 4 June, the anniversary of the Tiananmen Square, showing support for Taiwan.[xxiv]   

It is unfortunate that at a time when the world is grappling with the covid-19 pandemic, China has stepped up military activities in recent months, menacing Taiwan. Again on 12 July a Chinese Y-8, a propeller aircraft based on a Soviet-era design some of which have been retrofitted as surveillance aircraft, flew into Taiwan’s air space in the southwest.[xxv] Taiwan’s air force warned yet again to leave its air space. China justifies such exercises as routine and nothing unusual and designed to show the country’s determination to defend its sovereignty. China has never renounced the use of force to bring Taiwan under its control. In May 2020, a senior general of China categorically said that China would attack if there was no other way of stopping Taiwan becoming independent. Even Chinese defence minister vows to ‘fight to the end, at all costs’ over trade and Taiwan.[xxvi] The US has no choice than to step up its own military activities near the island too, with semi-regular navy voyages through the narrow Taiwan Strait.

Checking China’s expanding maritime footprint

In view of China’s increasing naval activities in the South China Sea and in the Taiwan Straits, the US has responded with its own aircraft carriers to check China’s maritime footprint. As the US Navy stepped up drills and freedom of navigation operations in the region, the PLA’s Southern Theatre Command conducted drills on 15-16 July 2020, with more than 3,000 missiles fired at moving targets at sea. This was in response to Washington’s rejection to most of Beijing’s expansive maritime claims in the strategic, resource-rich South China Sea. The tougher line taken by the US has worsened tensions and could push the PLA to conduct more frequent drills in the region. The PLA has also sent more fighter jets to its base on disputed Woody Island in the Paracels.

 The drills by the PLA Navy are aimed at sending a warning to the US Navy over its recent patrols in the area, as the bombers were designed to attack warships at sea. It appears that from now on large scale drills could become a regular activity as tensions escalate between the US and China. The Chinese drills were in response to the US display of two of its aircraft carrier strike groups, led by the USS Nimitz and the USS Ronald Reagan that had conducted dual exercises in the South China Sea to boost combat readiness.[xxvii] The last time the US had deployed two aircraft carriers together in the region was nearly six years ago.     

India’s possible role

India had been reticent in articulating its Taiwan policy in order not to annoy Beijing unnecessarily. Now it is time to revisit this policy in view of the recent border clash with China in the Himalayas, and India could consider shedding its hesitation and openly take a position favouring Taiwan’s cause. Analysts and opinion makers are also arguing that India should get closer to Taiwan to counter Chinese recent assertiveness. The decision to send a senior diplomat to Taipei as its envoy is a clear signal that India is willing to up-grade ties with Taiwan. Like other countries, India too does not have official diplomatic relations with Taiwan as it subscribes to the One China policy but it does maintain India Taipei Association (ITA) office headed by a diplomat to oversee relations between the two nations. For all practical purposes, though the ITA functions as a de facto embassy and deals with all economic and cultural activities, in the absence of official recognition and India’s adherence to the One China policy, the potentials are under-utilised and under-exploited.[xxviii] 

In view of the recent tensions between India and China, the focus could shift away from China quickly to expanding economic ties with Taiwan. Already India has adopted several measures to punish China economically by imposing new FDI norms and more recently banning 50 Chinese mobile applications including social media platforms TikTok and WeChat on the ground that they pose a threat to the country’s “sovereignty and security”.

Hereafter, the focus on the economic domain is likely to shift from China and towards Taiwan. The indications that Taiwanese phone manufacturer Foxconn, which makes Apple and Xiaomi phones promised to invest $5 million in setting up a plant in the western state of Maharashtra could be the precursor to many projects where investment from Taiwan can play an important role in India’s economic growth. Taiwan’s importance to India both economically and strategically is bound to increase in the coming days and India ought to be responsive to such an opportunity.         

Future scenario

The manner in which the security scenario is evolving in the Indo-Pacific region centring on Sino-US tussle for pre-eminence, with either side unwilling to yield space and with many smaller nations on the sidelines with options to choose a side, the ground is fertile for a major conflagration. A regional conflict assuming a global dimension is not unthinkable in this volatile situation. South China Sea or Taiwan could be the trigger. The Taiwan question could emerge as the most likely fodder for this drift to possible disaster. 

In order to avoid such an eventuality, what is needed is respect for international law, freedom of navigation, according recognition to global commons, China to eschew issuing threatening messages to Taiwan, respect to sovereignty of an individual state and concern for maintaining peace and stability and ensuring maritime security unconditionally. In an interdependent world heavily connected economically, any single incident centering on a particular country can have repercussions with others and the region. Statements like “if someone tries to separate Taiwan from China, the Chinese armed forces will take action at any price” are best avoided, or else the world could drift into an uncertain future, the consequences of which would unwelcome by any means.

Given the military asymmetry between China and Taiwan, the latter is no match but if Beijing crosses the red line, the US is most likely to intervene to defend Taiwan. When other small nations choose sides, the situation would be pregnant for a global conflagration, turning into a third World War. Can the world afford this? Stakeholders need to ponder over this and craft responsible policies.

Pic Courtesy- Remi Yuan at unsplash.com

Dr. Rajaram Panda was formerly Senior Fellow, IDSA, New Delhi. The views expressed are personal.

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[i] “Chinese President to Visit Europe”, 18 March 2014, http://www.chinatoday.com.cn/english/news/2014-03/18/content_607560.htm

[ii] https://dod.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2018-National-Defense-Strategy-Summary.pdf

[iii] Darius Shahtahmasebi, “Awakening a sleeping lion: The US-China Cold War is upon us”, 29 November 2018, https://www.rt.com/op-ed/445158-china-us-cold-war/

[iv] See, Rajaram Panda, “Djibouti Military Base is a New Step in China’s Maritime Footprint”, Global Asia (Seoul), Vol. 12, No. 3, Fall 2017,

https://www.globalasia.org/v12no3/feature/djibouti-military-base-is-a-new-step-in-chinas-maritime-footprint_rajaram-panda

[v] The Act’s acronym is a remarkable coincidence that spells out TAIPEI, the name of Taiwan’s capital. https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/senate-bill/1678/text

[vi] Cissy Zhou, “Donald Trump signs TAIPEI Act to support Taiwan’s international relations”, 27 March 2020, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3077192/donald-trump-signs-taipei-act-support-taiwans-international

[vii] Jon Hayward, “Trump Signs TAIPEI Act to Increase U.S. Support for Taiwan”, 27 March 2020,

https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2020/03/27/trump-signs-taipei-act-increase-u-s-support-taiwan/

[viii] Rajaram Panda, “Taiwan’s Diplomatic Isolation Continues as The Solomon Islands Switch Ties to Beijing Analysis”, 21 September 2019, https://www.eurasiareview.com/21092019-taiwans-diplomatic-isolation-continues-as-the-solomon-islands-switch-ties-to-beijing-analysis/; Rajaram Panda, “Buying Friends Chinese Style – Analysis”, 25 September 2019, https://www.eurasiareview.com/25092019-buying-friends-chinese-style-analysis/

[ix] John Hayward, “Trump signs TAIPEI Act to Increase U.S. Support for Taiwan”, 27 March 2020, https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2020/03/27/trump-signs-taipei-act-increase-u-s-support-taiwan/

[x] Cissy Zhou, n. 6

[xi] “Taiwan eyes further US arm purchases with new anti-ship missile”, 28 May 2020, https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/taiwan-eyes-further-us-arms-purchases-with-new-anti-ship-missile

[xii] Ibid.

[xiii] See, https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/535

[xiv] “Trump signs TAIPEI Act, threatening ‘consequences’ for nations that fail to toe US line on Taiwan”, 27 March 2020, https://www.rt.com/news/484220-trump-taipei-act-china/

[xv] Chris Horton, “Taiwan Set to Receive $2 Billion in U.S. Arms, Drawing Ire From China”, New York Time, 9 July 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/09/world/asia/taiwan-arms-sales.html

[xvi] “US greenlights $2.2bn sale of tanks & missiles to Taiwan despite China's protests”, 8 July 2019, https://www.sott.net/article/416430-US-greenlights-2-2bn-sale-of-tanks-missiles-to-Taiwan-despite-Chinas-protests

[xvii] For the terms and conditions of the Act, see “What is the Taiwan Relations Act”, https://guidetotaipei.com/article/what-is-the-taiwan-relations-act-%E5%8F%B0%E7%81%A3%E9%97%9C%E4%BF%82%E6%B3%95

[xviii] For details of what these six assurances are, See, “The “Six Assurances” to Taiwan”, July 1982, http://www.taiwandocuments.org/assurances.htm

[xix] See, “Speech at the 18th Shangri-La Dialogue by Gen. Wei Fenghe, State Councilor and Minister of National Defense, PRC”, 2 June 2019, http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1152730.shtml

[xx] “China threatens sanctions against US companies selling weapons to Taiwan”, 12 July 2019, https://www.rt.com/business/464003-china-sanctions-us-arms-taiwan/

[xxi] Ibid.

[xxii] Gabrielle Reyes, “’Determined for War’: China Orders Fighter Jets to Circle Taiwan”, 9 June 2020, https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/06/09/determined-for-war-china-orders-fighter-jets-to-circle-taiwan/

[xxiii] Ibid.

[xxiv] Ibid.

[xxv] “China continues intrusion into Taiwanese airspace with Su-30 fighter planes”, Reuters, 16 June 2020, https://www.businesstoday.in/current/world/china-continues-intrusion-into-taiwanese-airspace-with-su-30-fighter-planes/story/407095.html

[xxvi] “Chinese defense minister vows to ‘fight to the end, at all costs’ over trade & Taiwan”, 2 June 2019, https://www.rt.com/news/460857-china-fight-trade-taiwan/

[xxvii] Minnie Chan, “South China Sea: Chinese air force ‘sends warning’ to US Navy with live-fire drills”, 21 July 2020, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3094128/south-china-sea-chinese-air-force-sends-warning-us-navy-live?utm_medium=email&utm_source=mailchimp&utm_campaign=enlz-

[xxviii] Kunal Purohit, “China-India tensions: will New Delhi play the Taiwan and Tibet card in its face off with Beijing?”, 24 July 2020, https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3094427/china-india-tensions-will-new-delhi-play-taiwan-and-tibet-card?utm_medium=email&utm_source=mailchimp&utm_campaign=enlz-gme_s