Russia-Ukraine War update: Russian drone attacks, Ukrainian counter-offensive, and NATO drills in Germany
Russia Ukraine war has become intractable and therefore difficult to predict the final outcome.The war has drained economies from both sides but it also shows that easy win is not feasible.The challenge is to bring peace in the region and control the ripple effects in global economy.
Russian drone attacks in Odesa.
In the early hours of 10 June 2023, Russia launched missiles and drones against sites all over Ukraine, causing three civilian casualties in Odesa and damaging a military airfield in the Poltava region. These attacks formed part of the strikes that Russia has stepped up as a counter to Ukraine’s preparation to launch a significant counteroffensive. As per officials, after 35 strike drones and 8 ground-launched missiles, air defense units shot down 20 drones and 2 cruise missiles. The emergency services reported that at least 27 additional persons, including 3 children, were also injured. The regional governor claimed that the Myrhorod military airstrip suffered "some damage of infrastructure and equipment" as a result of Russian drone, ballistic, and cruise missile fired toward the Poltava region. 10 drones struck two regions of the Kharkiv region, which borders Russia and backs up to the battle line, killing governor Oleh Synehubov and injuring a 39-year-old man. Additionally, Ukraine downed two drones over the Dnipropetrovsk region, where no harm was noted, according to Serhiy Lysak, the territory's governor [1].
The Russian drone attack overnight damaged some infrastructure in the important grain-exporting port of Odesa on the Black Sea but the military did not clarify whether the port's damage put grain exports in jeopardy. Since Ukraine can only export grains and other food materials through ports in the Odesa region, the Black Sea grain agreement was arranged by the United Nations (UN) and Turkey for the first 120 days in July of last year to assist in tackling a worldwide food crisis that was amplified by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The agreement, which was extended in May 2023, aims to ensure the secure export of goods and grains during times of war from three Ukrainian ports: Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdennyi [2].
The Russian soldiers employed drones built in Iran, according to the Ukrainian military, but no further information was provided. The Shahed-136 is a small-sized, self-detonating drone manufactured in Iran. These dronesare programmable for an automatic flight carrying explosive payloads to a certain set of GPS coordinates. International sanctions have hurt Russia's drone production, and several have been shot down since the war began, leading Moscow to acquire drones from Iran [3].
According to media sources, the drone attack in Odesa caused damage to 290 apartments. As per the Ukrainian National News Agency Ukrinform’s website, the Odesa City Council reported the incident in which 11 residential buildings were impacted. Additionally, according to the chief of the education department, Olena Buynevych, two schools, and three kindergarten institutions were also damaged [4].
Moscow has been launching massive missile and drone attacks against Ukraine's energy infrastructure since October 2022, and Kyiv acknowledged that every thermal and hydroelectric power plant in the nation had been destroyed [5]. Moscow maintains that the assaults are a military necessity, but Ukraine contends they are war crimes because of the terrible toll they have had on civilian life.
Russian drone attacks in Kyiv
Earlier on 28 May 2023, the city of Kyiv became the site for one of Russia’s biggest drone attacks. According to the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, 58 of the 59 Iranian Shahed drones that Russia launched were intercepted and shot down. The number of drones was 54 according to a previous report from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence, just two of which were not shot down [6]. Kyiv has been the target of multiple attacks, but fatalities are still uncommon.The strikes were increased as there were indications of a forthcoming Ukrainian offensive to retake territories under Russian control.
Russia in its latest swarm of attacks has made use of a variety of cruise and ballistic missiles alongsidethe so-called kamikaze drones. These strikes occurred as citizens prepared to celebrate Kyiv Day, the anniversary of the city's establishment more than 1,500 years ago. According to Vitaliy Klitschko, the mayor of Kyiv, a man died when drone debris hit a petrol station nearby,a woman was severely harmed andat least two high-rise structures in various parts of the capital caught fire after being struck by drone debris.Officials in Kyiv also claimed that warehouses in the Holosiyivsky area of southern Kyiv had been set on fire[7].
Another series of drone attacks followed in the month of June. The complex air defense system in Ukraine has gotten better at deflecting those attacks, however, even successful interceptions carry risks. Earlier, the Ukrainian air defenseswere able to intercept a 20-missile bombardment, but the building fire caused by falling debris that hit it nevertheless claimed the lives of 5 people [8].
16 months after Russia's extensive invasion of Ukraine, about 18% of the country's southern and eastern areas are still under Russian occupation.The Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a video message that "in some areas, our warriors are moving forward, in some areas they are defending their positions and resisting the occupiers' assaults and intensified attacks."He continued, "We have no lost positions, only liberated ones," referring to the recent recovery of around 8 communities and 113,000 square kilometers of land.Part of those achievements can be ascribed to NATO-grade weapons supplied by Kyiv's Westernpartners in substitution of the nation's rapidly depleting stockpile from the Soviet era. Tanks, armored cars, multi-launch rocket systems, and most recently long-range cruise missiles from the UK are part of the arsenal that Ukraine has been receiving as support [9].
Ukraine’s counter-offensive.
Around 08 June 2023, the Ukrainian armed forces began its long-awaited counteroffensive against Russian forces.A wave of attacks from the Ukrainian side targeted the war's southeastern front lines. The counteroffensive appeared to have incurred a substantial push to the Russian forces after months of preparation [10]. Such results were much desired by the Ukrainian soldiers as this campaign was indicated to prove critical in their efforts to regain occupied territory.Many believe that this new phase of the conflict is essential to convinceUkraine’s partners in the West in order to continue their support as it deals with the repercussions of the destruction of a vital dam in the area.
The setback faced by Russian forces on 09 June marked Ukraine's first victory in a protracted counteroffensive that has been going on for well over a long time. However, this series of assaultshas showcased very slow progress than earlier anticipated. In this sense, the fight for Neskuchne provided a forewarning that Kyiv’s and the Western allies' expectations of a speedy triumph were false thereby indicating that further march into Russian-occupied territory would be more difficult than thought.Soldiers who recounted the combat made it obvious that Ukraine's victory depended on elements of surprise that helped catch the Russian forces off guard.Ukrainian forces were able to recovermultiple settlements further south in the days following Neskuchne's "liberation," which was declared on 10 June [11].
According to the most recent assessment released by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Ukrainian troops appear to be adopting strategies that preserve manpower at the expense of slower territory gains.However, ISW also asserted that the speed of Ukrainian operations does not indicate a deadlock or show that Ukraine is unable to recapture significant territory. Meanwhile, Hanna Malyar, the Deputy Minister of Defence for Ukraine, announced thatUkrainian forces were successful in liberating a total of 37.4 square kilometers in eastern and southern Ukraine. Additionally, military bloggers in Russia claimed that Ukrainian forces had liberated a crucial observation post close to Klishchiivka, around six kilometers southwest of Bakhmut, however, the settlement itself has not been freed [12].
NATO’s air drills in Germany.
On June 12, 2023, NATO soldiers started their largest air dills and exercise in its history. The two-week-long "Air Defender" exercise will involve 25 countries, 10,000 soldiers, and 250 aircraft and will end on 23 June [13]. Throughout the exercise, aircraft from partner countries will be based at various sites throughout Germany.The countriestaking part in this exercise are United States of America (USA), United Kingdom (UK), Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Turkey [14].
For several years, the exercise "Air Defender" has been planned. It will assist in ensuring that NATO air forces are prepared and trained to act as a holistic unit. Hosted and commanded byGermany, several German air bases will host the majority of the aircraft. The North Sea, the Baltic Sea, and Southern Germany will be the main training mission areas [15]. Increased interoperability and readiness to defend against aircraft, drone, and missile assaults on cities and vital infrastructure are the goals of the drills. Supporting ground forces and evacuation missions will be included in further training exercises.
The exercises are intended to mimic a response to an assault on a NATO member. German Air Force Lieutenant General Ingo Gerhartz stated that the exercises and air drills are to demonstratethat NATO territory is the red line and that members are prepared to defend every centimeter of its territoryemphasizing that the exercise was intended to demonstrate a "defensive" posture toward Russia.He further added that “they won’t operate any flights, say, towards Kaliningrad. Consequently, this is meant to be defensive".In addition, the US Ambassador to Germany Amy Gutmann stated that the exerciseswill be an "impressive" display of power towards other nations [16].
NATO spokesman Oana Lungescu commented that "Air Defender sends a clear message that NATO is ready to defend every inch of Allied territory" and added that "Air Defender is necessary because we live in a more dangerous world." With 250 aircraft, including about 100 from the USA, Air Defender also exemplifies the ever-strong close relationship that still exists between North America and Europe as they cooperate in NATO [17].
The exercise had been planned for years, long before the invasion of Ukraine occurred. However, the need for NATO to increase its military power was evident to its members ahead of a defense ministers meeting in Brussels [18]. Here, it should be noted that Germany has promised to significantly alter its defense strategy and increase investment,and the exercise under German leadership will test the alliance's airpower.
Conclusion:
The developments in the Russia-Ukraine war have come to a complex point to assess. The mutiny by Yevgeny Prigozhin was said to have a negative impact on the overall Russian strategy since Wagner Group mercenaries were able to capture significant masses of territories to the point that it was seen as a crucial component for any Russian successes. At the same time, the Ukrainian counteroffensive did not showcase the desired results as earlier anticipated. Additionally, Russia also found a way around the sanctions by using the Iranian-made Shahed drones which have so far impacted Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure severely. In this regard, NATO’s air drill comes off at an interesting time.President Zelensky’s ultimatums to NATO regarding its inclusion in the alliance have led to questions regarding Ukraine’s reliance on NATO. While the Air Defender exercises are to showcase the military prowess and interoperability among the NATO members, it does very little to help Ukraine’s situation. Hence, with anticipations regarding the results of the Wagner mutiny and the Ukrainian counteroffensive falling flat, Kyiv might need to rethink its entire strategy toward reclaiming control over its lost territories.
Endnotes:
1. Tom Balmforth and Iryna Nazarchuk, Russian strikes kill three in Odesa, hit Poltava air base, Ukraine says, Reuters, 10 June 2023 https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/three-killed-russian-drone-attack-odesa-overnight-ukraine-2023-06-10/
2. Russia damages Ukraine's Odesa port in overnight drone attack, military says, Reuters, 29 May 2023 https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-damages-ukraines-odesa-port-overnight-drone-attack-military-2023-05-29/
3. Russia Launches Drone Attack on Ukraine’s Odesa, The Moscow Times, 19 April 2023 https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/04/19/russia-launches-drone-attack-on-ukraines-odesa-a80877
4. Nearly 300 apartments damaged in Russian drone attack in Ukraine, Anadolu Ajansi, 11 June 2023 https://www.aa.com.tr/en/russia-ukraine-war/nearly-300-apartments-damaged-in-russian-drone-attack-in-ukraine/2919477
5. Odesa almost out of power after Russian drone attacks, say officials, Reuters, 10 December 2022 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/10/russian-drone-attacks-target-power-network-odesa-ukraine
6. Josh Pennington and Irene Nasser, Russia targets Kyiv with largest drone attack of conflict, killing one, CNN World, 28 May 2023 https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/28/europe/russian-drones-attack-ukraine-kyiv-intl-hnk/index.html
7. James Landale and Jaroslav Lukiv, Ukraine war: Kyiv hit by new massive Russian drone attack, BBC News, 28 May 2023 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-65736730
8. Cassandra Vinograd, Russian Forces Launch Overnight Drone Attacks on Kyiv, The New York Times, 02 July 2023 https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/02/world/europe/russia-ukraine-drone-attack.html
9. Roman Olearchyk, Russian drone strikes target Kyiv and western city of Lviv, Financial Times, 20 June 2023https://www.ft.com/content/bd0a01db-4359-4400-8cb3-f479659cfbe0
10. Raf Sanchez, Anastasiia Parafeniuk and Bill O’Reilly, Ukraine launches counteroffensive against Russia, NBC News, 08 July 2023 https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukraine-launches-counteroffensive-russia-zaporizhzhia-rcna88332
11. Thomas Gibbons-Neff and Yurii Shyvala, In Small Victory, Signs of Grueling Combat Ahead in Ukrainian Counteroffensive, The New York Times, 02 July 2023 https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/02/world/europe/ukraine-russia-counteroffensive.html
12. Oleksandra Vakulina, Ukraine War: Kyiv shifts gear in counteroffensive to preserve manpower, Euronews, 06 July 2023 https://www.euronews.com/2023/07/06/ukraine-war-kyiv-shifts-gear-in-counteroffensive-to-preserve-manpower
13. Germany hosts biggest ever air exercise of NATO forces, NATO, 12 June 2023 https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_215611.htm
14. Air Defender 23, Bundeswehr, https://www.bundeswehr.de/en/organization/german-air-force/air-defender-23
15. Germany hosts biggest ever air exercise of NATO forces, NATO, 12 June 2023 https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_215611.htm
16. NATO to hold largest ever European air drill over Germany, Deutsche Welle, 07 June https://www.dw.com/en/nato-to-hold-largest-ever-european-air-drills-over-germany/a-65848542
17. Germany hosts biggest ever air exercise of NATO forces, NATO, 12 June 2023 https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_215611.htm
18. Chris Gordon, NATO’s Biggest Air Exercise Ever Kicks Off, Led by Germany, 12 June 2023 https://www.airandspaceforces.com/nato-air-exercise-ever-kicks-off/
Pic Courtsey-Glib Albovsky at unsplash.com
(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)