Russia- Pakistan Ties: Should India Be Concerned?
The current year is going to be highly significant for the diplomatic relations between Russia and Pakistan. The top leadership of both the countries were present at the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics began on the evening of February 4 in Beijing. In January earlier, Prime Minister Imran Khan extended a formal invitation to the Russian President to visit Pakistan which could not be materialized for the last two years for various plausible reasons. These major developments mark a fresh beginning and will aid in bolstering ties between Russia and Pakistan in the coming years.
Bilateral Relations
Diplomatic ties were first established between Pakistan and the Soviet Union in 1948. They have experienced manifold ups and down since. In the beginning, when Pakistan was under the civilian administration, the Soviet Union had relatively healthy and robust relations. Furthermore, the bonding deteriorated after the Soviet-Afghan war. Pakistan is known to support the West and the extremists to oust the Soviet-backed communist regime in Afghanistan.
Events changed drastically after the fall of the Soviet Union. There is much more camaraderie between Russia and Pakistan in recent times than it was ever been before. This is a result of the growing closeness between India and the United States, a major irritant to Pakistan. In 2010, as per reports, there was a surge in arms sales and numerous high-level visits between the countries. Soon a Joint Military Commission was set up between them. Russia and Pakistan have been conducting joint military exercises ‘Druzhba’ since 2016 only after both the countries penned down a defense cooperation agreement in 2014. Russia and Pakistan are cooperating in the field of natural gas supply with the formulation of the Pakistan Stream Gas Pipeline agreement in 2015. Russia also considers Pakistan as an important member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Additionally, in 2011, Russia and Pakistan collaborated on a Free Trade Agreement and currency swap arrangements to enhance bilateral trade and strengthen their economic relations.
The diplomatic fallout in the aftermath of the Soviet invasion in Afghanistan continues due to the increasing distance between Russia and Pakistan. The latter country is highly proactive in building a close nexus with the US and Russia has deeper cooperation with Pakistan's adversary, India. Both the countries aim to undertake concerted efforts to establish the foundation for a mutually beneficial relationship amid the crucial geopolitical competitions and worsening regional stability. For instance, to fight the draconian COVID-19, Moscow provided around 50 thousand vials of the Sputnik V vaccine to Pakistan in times of deficit [1]. Hence, Russia and Pakistan are not restricted by a 'no-contact' policy. Pakistan's burgeoning geo-economic significance following the establishment of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor under the Belt and Road Initiative, also developing a market for defense equipment have been appealing to Russia’s strategic interests. On the other hand, in the situation of economic distress, Pakistan has reached out to Russia recently apart from China for a viable loan of 1 billion USD to deal with the financial hardships. The loan will be spent on the Mail Line One railway project [2]. However, there have been countless speculations around this piece of news. Furthermore, there have been media reports that Pakistan and Russia are on the track to finalize President Putin’s maiden visit to Pakistan in 2022 after an invitation was extended by Prime Minister Imran Khan during a telephonic conversation. The probable visit will outline their determination to put forth the political will into action and begin a new chapter in their bilateral relations that were impaired by the Cold war rivalry [3]. Pakistan hopes that during Putin’s visit to the country, the Pakistan Steam Gas Pipeline project would kick off after it was held up due to the US sanctions upon Russian companies. The project is extensively significant to Pakistan as it would resolve the issue of shortage of natural gas in the Punjab province. The outreach from both sides is going to be the initiation of a new era of friendship along with the formation of a new alignment between Russia-Pakistan-China.
Concerns for India
The common issues discussed between Russia and Pakistan which are sensitive to India include the human rights situation in Jammu and Kashmir, the Afghanistan quagmire, and the concept of Indo-Pacific [4]. The rapprochement between the two countries has turned into more form and substance. The ongoing connections stand against Pakistan's anti-India advocacy which is disturbing the status-quo of India's foreign policy. The outreach by Russia towards Pakistan is highly unfavorable to India and would impinge on the strategic partnership and a long-standing friendship between the latter country and Russia. Until today, Russia remains India's biggest defense partner, however, the increasing arms sales to Pakistan is raising many questions. With the support from Russia, there are high chances that Pakistan would seek to enlarge its strategic footprints in Eurasia concerning its anti-India campaign.
Russia time and again has reiterated that its relations with Pakistan are totally 'independent' in nature and the country is very much aware of the intricacies attached. The Russians are mindful of respecting the sensitivities floating around when it comes to Indo-Pak ties. The government adheres to a pragmatic foreign policy, maintaining relations with both India and Pakistan on two distinct pathways. Russia would continue to invest its time in building a constructive relationship with Pakistan, and India would have to keep a watch on the Russia-Pakistan tandem. Moreover, Russia has stated that India's increasing affability with the US along with China seen as a threat is creating certain discontinuities. As a matter of fact, Russia sees closeness with Pakistan as an opportunity to mediate between New Delhi and Islamabad as there exists a trust deficit between the two. Recently, Afghanistan's democratic government was toppled by the Taliban forces, therefore, a cause of concern for Russia, Pakistan as well as India [5]. Russia has been collaborating with both India and Pakistan since the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. India and Russia stressed a similar approach to deal with the Taliban administration. Engagement with Pakistan is equally crucial to control the movements of the Central Asian militant groups rising out of Afghanistan. Russia aims to maintain a policy of balancing its ties with both India and Pakistan.
Conclusion
The bonhomie between Russia and Pakistan is not a new phenomenon as figured in the article. The strategic calculus of both countries is extremely beneficial to each other. There exists robust political engagement, energy partnership, and military advantages. Russia considers Pakistan to be a key partner to deal with the situation of Afghanistan. On the other hand, it fits well with Russian attempts at forming new friendships in the present geopolitical complexities. Pakistan’s geographical location at the crossroads of South, Central, and West Asia makes it extensively important in Russia’s Greater Eurasia project. This will in turn enhance Russia’s access to the Indian Ocean which has always been a key national interest for the Russian government. Their convergences does not mean Russia is drifting apart from India. Their special relationship and privileged partnership outweigh their differences in dealing with Pakistan. The size of the Indian markets and its global position would act as bargaining tools against the Russian outreach towards Pakistan. Pakistan would act as a counterbalance for Russia if in the future there are American sanctions upon the defense sales to India. In short, Russia is fulfilling its strategic national interests in the South Asian region and will never jeopardize its relations with India. Hence, India should not feel threatened by the Russia-Pakistan nexus, albeit keep itself updated with their manoeuvers as geopolitics is highly dynamic and the idea of diplomacy and alliances in the 21st century is all based on national interests [6].
References:
[1]https://thediplomat.com/2021/06/bilateral-bond-between-pakistan-and-russia-deepening/
[2]https://www.wionews.com/south-asia/cash-strapped-pakistan-seeks-loans-of-5-billion-from-china-russia-and-kazakhstan-449192
[3]https://theprint.in/world/russia-pakistan-in-talks-for-putins-maiden-visit-to-the-country-report/811643/
[4]https://southasianvoices.org/russias-growing-outreach-to-pakistan-should-india-be-concerned/
[5]https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/ChanakyaCode/russia-balances-ties-with-india-and-pakistan-decoding-the-russian-overall-strategic-objective/
[6]https://www.claws.in/russias-reviving-relations-with-pakistan-and-its-impact-on-india/
Pic Courtesy-Russia Today
(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)
