Reading into strategic fine print of Abraham Accords
In September 15, 2020, Israel has signed Abraham Accords with the UAE and Bahrain which aims at normalising the relations between the three nations. These include security and scientific cooperation, direct flights, commercial activities, tourism and full diplomatic ties at the ambassadorial level. According to the agreement, Israel would stop its plan to annex the areas of the West Bank under Palestinian control. The US has played a major role in bringing the three states on the table which has catapulted the events concerning the Abraham Accords. After this agreement, the UAE has become the first Gulf country while Bahrain has become the second one to normalise the relations with Israel. They have also become the third and fourth Arab states respectively, after Egypt (1979) and Jordan (1994), to establish full ties with Israel.
However, there is speculation that Abu Dhabi and Manama would avoid establishing their embassy in Jerusalem due to the historical dispute between Palestine and Israel. Both claim Jerusalem as their political and religious capital. The UN had designated Jerusalem as a special international zone in 1947. But in Arab-Israel war of 1948, Israel seized its western half. Later, it annexed the eastern half also in the Arab-Israel war of 1967.
It is important to note that the UAE and Israel were already interacting with each other in various spheres in recent years. In 2015, Israel established a diplomatic office in Abu Dhabi attached to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IREA). In November 2016, Danny Danon, Israeli ambassador to the UN, visited the UAE. In October 2018, culture and sports minister of Israel, Miri Regev, officially visited Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque in Abu Dhabi. As per some reports, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu covertly met Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed in 2018. This meeting was reportedly facilitated by Director of Mossad, Yossi Cohen. Israeli athletes have been participating in various competitions in the UAE and Israel is going to participate in the World Expo, 2021 in Dubai. These developments show that both Israel and the UAE have been eager to normalise the relations between them.
Bahrain and Israel also have discreet ties since the 1990s. In 2009, then Israeli PM Shimon Peres met Bahrain’s King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa in New York during a UN conference. In September 2016, Bahrain’s then foreign minister, Sheikh Khalid bin Ahmed-Al-Khalifa paid tribute to Shimon Peres on his demise. Both countries were also actively participating in sports diplomacy. In May 2017, an Israeli delegation participated in FIFA congress which was held in Manama. In November 2017, an Israeli car-racer took part in an F-1 car race which took place in Bahrain. In December 2017, Bahrain sent a delegation of its interfaith group to Israel to promote the message of ‘tolerance and co-existence’. In 2018, Bahrain stood with Israel when it attacked Iranian military targets in Syria. In 2019, Israeli Foreign Minister, Israel Katz met Khalid Bin Ahmed-Al-Khalifa in Washington.
It is quite evident from the facts that both Bahrain and the UAE were interacting with Israel, although discreetly. Hence, this agreement has formalised the already established covert diplomatic channels. It has the potential to be a gamechanger for Middle-East. However, the UAE and Bahrain have moved away from 'The Arab Peace Initiative' by formalising this agreement with Israel. ‘Arab Peace Initiative’ put ‘complete withdrawal of Israel from Palestinian territories occupied after 1967’ as the necessary condition to normalise relations with Israel.
The major thrust areas which are mentioned in the official documents of Abraham Accords are Finance and Investment; Civil Aviation; Visas and Consular Services; Innovation, Trade and Economic Relations; Healthcare; Science, Technology and Peaceful Uses of Outer Space; Tourism, Culture and Sport; Energy; Environment; Education; Maritime Arrangements; Telecommunications and Post; Agriculture and Food Security; Water and Legal Cooperation.
Palestine, Iran, Turkey, Qatar, Kuwait and Algeria have criticised it openly and called out the UAE and Bahrain for backstabbing the Palestinian cause. Turkey has even threatened to withdraw its ambassador from Abu Dhabi. Palestinian non-state actors like Hamas and Islamic Jihad have also raised their voice against the accord. But Egypt, Oman and Jordan have publicly welcomed the deal. Saudi Arabia has remained silent on this issue. But there are speculations that Saudi Prince Mohammed bin Salman has played a major role in this agreement. It is an open secret that Arabian heavy-weight has a major say in collective policies of the Gulf-Sunni kingdoms. So, it is clear that the signing of Abraham Accords could not have been done without Saudi Arabia’s approval. Moreover, Saudi authorities said earlier that they would allow the flights between the UAE, Bahrain and Israel to cross their airspace. Recently, The Wall Street Journal published a report, according to which, Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz is at odds with the Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman over the normalisation of ties with Israel. Reportedly, MBS wants to move forward with the normalisation of relations with Israel while the king wants to pursue the policy of ‘Arab Boycott of Israel’. Although the US president and Mossad’s Director Yossi Cohen indicated recently that Saudis can join the league soon, it is unlikely that Riyadh would suddenly normalise relations with Israel. This can be attributed to the fact that the two holiest shrines of Islam are located in Saudi Arabia with Saudi king acting as the de-facto custodian of the shrines. This responsibility put a lot of pressure over Saudi Arabia to maintain a distance from Israel, for now. But some other Arab states like Oman, Morocco and Sudan are expected to join the bandwagon soon. Recently, the US President said there are around eight to nine countries who want to normalise relations with Israel.
The most important thing about the agreement is its timing. A bunch of factors could have initiated the reactions which finally led to the signing of the deal at this particular time.
Donald Trump had announced the peace plan for Israel and Palestine in January which allows Israel to annex its Jewish settlements in West Bank. Many Arab countries including UAE have strengthened their ties with Israel in recent years despite the fact that Israel is consistently avoiding peace talks and following a hard-line approach towards Palestine. This clearly shows that Arab countries are getting comfortable with the status quo. But the annexation plan, which was also one of the elections promises of Benjamin Netanyahu, would change the status quo and would surely hamper the two-state solution for Israel and Palestine. Moreover, this would put Arab countries under pressure to retaliate against Israel which would also affect their ties with Trump administration. So, through this agreement, the UAE, Bahrain and the other concerned countries have succeeded to maintain the status quo on Palestine.
Another factor which led to the signing of the deal is the existential threat from Iran which is being faced by Israel and the Sunni dominated Arab powers including the UAE and Bahrain. Iran has invested heavily in its proxies in different countries like Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Palestine, Houthi in Yemen and Popular Mobilization forces in Iraq to name a few. Also, the US Presidential election is scheduled for November at a time when the focus of the US's foreign policy is shifting from Middle-East to Indo-Pacific. If Trump manages to grab a second win, his administration would stay focused on China and Indo-Pacific which would create a power vacuum in West Asia. But if Trump loses and a Democratic President comes in power, it is likely that the Iran Nuclear Deal would be restored. In the former situation, this agreement allows Israel and other Sunni countries to tighten the belt for the US’s retreat from the region. If the latter happens, this agreement would prepare Israel and other concerned countries to face a defiant Iran.
Moreover, the Middle-East is witnessing a major change in the regional power politics with Turkey, Iran and Pakistan moving forward with ‘non-Arab Alliance’. Pakistan’s relations with the Gulf countries have been witnessing a consistent decline lately because of many factors. In 2019, Saudis declined the plea by Pakistan to organise a meeting to condemn India’s actions in Kashmir. Also, Pakistani leadership is angry with the UAE’s invitation to India to address the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation in 2019. It has been also reported that Pakistan withdrew from the meeting of Islamic leaders at the last moment due to the reported pressure from Saudi Arabia. The meeting was called by the PM of Malaysia, Mahathir Mohammad. In 2019, the Ambassador of Iran to Pakistan publicly articulated the idea of a potential alliance between Iran, Pakistan and Turkey. Now, both Iran and Turkey want to dismantle the Saudi hegemony in the Gulf and want to wrest the mantle from Saudi Arabia. Turkey has the Muslim Brotherhood while Iran is backed by its proxies and leverages the Shia population present, in nearly all the Arab states. There are reports that this alliance is being backed by China and Russia. Both of the countries have their own issues with the USA and want to crush the American hegemony in the region. It will open a pandora-box of opportunities for both Russia and China in the Middle-East. This plan satisfies the realpolitik ambitions of all these countries. So, this factor provided the necessary push which has changed the Arab-Israel relations and is consistent with Donald Trump’s strategy of ‘maximum pressure’ on Iran.
Moreover, Donald Trump's foreign policy with respect to China, Iran and North Korea has largely remained inconclusive and the U.S. is retreating from Afghanistan at a time when Afghanistan is facing a danger of violent instability. The U.S. had been arranging meetings between Jerusalem, Manama and Abu Dhabi since last year, which probably laid the foundations for the agreement. At this time, the deal can help Mr Trump to claim this major diplomatic breakthrough in Arab-Israel relations as the victory of the three-way diplomacy overseen by Trump administration.
Domestic environment has not been favourable for Israeli PM, Benjamin Netanyahu lately. Nation-wide protests against Israeli establishment has been occurring due to the corruption scandal and improper handling of the pandemic. Anti-establishment feelings against Netanyahu and the Jordan valley annexation issue are the reasons which have pushed the Israeli PM against the wall. This deal is going to change the image of Benjamin Netanyahu from a ‘core realist’ to a ‘peace-loving idealist’ and now he is in the exclusive league of the Israeli leaders who have brokered peace with the Arab states. So, the timing of this deal could not be any better.
Israeli’s advancement in defence, security and surveillance equipment, arid farming, solar power, horticultural products, high-tech, gem and jewellery, and pharmaceuticals can help in the economic and strategic cooperation among the three countries. The closer ties between Bahrain, the UAE and Israel can help in reviving the economies of the three countries which have been affected adversely due to pandemic. Israel is known as ‘the start-up nation’ and the Israeli start-ups can now utilise the duty-free environment of the UAE. Israel can supply the skilled and semi-skilled workforce to these states especially from Israeli-Arab community and Mizrahim and Sephardim ethnicities. This would help in bridging the cultural divide between these countries. Israel can now collaborate with the Gulf countries in the research areas, especially on Covid-19. So, this agreement has the potential for opening a plethora of opportunities between these states.
Many actions by the U.S. like moving of the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, curtailing the aid to the Palestinians and announcement of a unilateral peace plan for Palestine have obviously delayed the implementation of two-states solution further. In this case, also, it seems as if the other geopolitical concerns of the US, Israel and the Arab states are given precedence over the Palestinian issue. The power politics of Middle-East has never been monochromatic. If this agreement has the potential of becoming a worm-hole for the new opportunities, it can also open a black-hole of instability and conflict because of greater polarisation and different levels of power-plays in the region. Henry Kissinger’s words aptly describe the volatility of the geopolitics of the Middle-East:
“There are no permanent friends or foes in diplomacy; there are only permanent interests”
Pic Courtsey-Carlvic Lim at unsplash.com
(The views expressed are personal.)
Notes
1. https://www.voanews.com/middle-east/how-abraham-accord-might-impact-middle-east
2. https://www.newworldorder.today/post/the-abraham-accord-changes-to-india-s-middle-east-balancing-act
3. https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/15/politics/israel-uae-abraham-accords-documents/index.html
4. https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/israel-uae-relations
5. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/9/22/explainer-where-do-arab-states-stand-on-normalising-israel-ties
6. https://www.timesofisrael.com/mossad-chief-indicates-saudis-could-join-nations-normalizing-ties-with-israel/
7. https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-says-saudi-arabia-among-7-9-countries-expected-to-make-peace-with-israel/
8. https://www.timesofisrael.com/normalization-agreement-brings-once-secret-israel-bahrain-contacts-into-the-open/
