QUAD and the agenda for the future

It is predicted to boost geoeconomics among them and throughout the Indo-Pacific region. The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework is aimed to bring the participating countries closer together on problems like trade, supply chains, sustainable energy, decarbonisation, infrastructure, taxation, and anti-corruption. Through the creation of initiatives like the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure, it is expected to seek a collaborative approach to strengthening regional trade cooperation, enhancing transparency, and handling crises like the Covid-19 epidemic and future crises.

The presidents of the Quad nations gathered in Tokyo for the fourth occasion, and the second time in person, on May 24, 2022. A new programme for continuing collaboration in the marine sector, space, climate change, health, and cyber security was launched during the Quad summit. During the Quad summit, member countries vowed to confront difficulties in upholding rules-based maritime order, notably in the East and South China Seas and vehemently rejected any forceful, provocative, or unilateral acts aimed at changing the status quo. The Quad member nations have decided that the next in-person Summit will be held in 2023, with Australia hosting the event.

WHAT IS QUAD?

The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue or Quad, of India, the United States, Australia and Japan began as a coordination mechanism to respond to the humanitarian crisis in the aftermath of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami that killed and displaced millions. Since then, it has evolved into one of the world's most important forums, with work that could have significant implications for global geopolitics. The Quad's emergence is reflected in the growing recognition of the Indo-Pacific as a geopolitical concept both inside and without the member nations. Today, the Quad signifies a shift in crucial nations' thinking in the area. The Quad, which is sometimes referred to as an "Asian NATO," is actually much different. To begin with, this is not a treaty-based partnership. It does not bind its members to collective security, and they are not obligated to defend one another in the event of a confrontation. The Quad lacks a designated military staff and does not engage in cooperative military planning. Instead, the Quad serves as a diplomatic venue for members to express their concerns about regional challenges and seek methods to work within the organisation or with others.

The Quad has increased its military activity in recent years, which has drawn international attention. For starters, all four nations' navies take part in the high-profile Malabar drills. Bilateral military relations, in the form of exercises and defence agreements, have also become more robust. High-level 2+2 conversations between member countries have also become a regular fixture on the diplomatic calendar.

AGENDA OF THE QUAD-

The goal and agenda of Quad is to keep military and political influences out of the Indo-Pacific’s water corridors, that is very crucial to every Quad member’s national interests. It is primarily seen as a strategic alliance aimed at reducing Chinese dominance. The Quad's primary goal is to maintain a rules-based global order, freedom of navigation, and a free trade system. Critical and emerging technologies, connectivity and infrastructure, cyber security, maritime security, humanitarian aid, disaster relief, climate change, pandemics, and education are among the topics discussed by the Quad leaders.

INDIA- India's main concern is to counter China's influence in the maritime region. China values its marine space far more than it values opportunistic land grab attempts in the Himalayas. The Indian oceanic routes, which pass via maritime chokepoints, account for a large portion of Chinese commerce. In the case of Chinese aggression on its frontiers, India can potentially impair Chinese commerce by working with the Quad nations. With the emergence of the notion of the 'Indo-Pacific,' there is a growing great power interest in the marine sector. With India at the heart of the Indo-Pacific geopolitical imagination, the idea of a "broader Asia" that can extend its influence beyond geographical borders may be realised.

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: It is natural for the United States to collaborate closely with these countries. Australia and Japan are treaty allies of the United States, while India is a key strategic partner. The Trump administration collaborated extensively with these nations, and the Biden administration is working to broaden the Quad's scope. The Indo-Pacific, which straddles two seas and numerous continents, is vital to American nautical interests. In 2019, the area had $1.9 trillion in commerce from the United States. According to a UN estimate, 42% of global exports and 38% of global imports are projected to travel through this year. [2]

JAPAN- Japan's trade with the rest of the world is primarily reliant on free maritime lanes. Japan's Self-Defense Forces have quietly forged partnerships with their Australian and Indian equivalents, and the US and Japanese forces already interact closely across the area. As China puts economic conditions on nations in the Indo-Pacific, Japan is keeping a close eye on the situation and intends to provide Southeast Asian countries with other sources of help and trade to counter China's expanding influence. Tokyo has teamed up with Washington and Canberra to increase the amount of money available for high-quality infrastructure projects. [3]

AUSTRALIA- Australia sees China as a state that is actively and aggressively undermining the US-led liberal international system of laws and norms. It has vigorously challenged Chinese coercive conduct and activities that undermine the current international order, resulting in a freeze in relations between the two countries, according to many. Australia has also been focused on collective dispute settlement, marine capabilities, commerce, market access, and interoperability to promote a Free and Open Indo-Pacific.

QUAD LEADERS TOKYO MEETING-

The QUAD Summit in Tokyo on May 24, 2022, marked the second in-person and the fourth meeting. Since then, the consortium of world leaders and shared vision of the free and open Indo-Pacific has led to six working groups on various domains. Apart from the IPEF, the members mutually agreed on few other developments. For global health security, the partner nations have developed a vaccine partnership adapting and upgrading as new strains and variants emerged. The US provided pediatric doses and booster jibes for countries in need. India uses the vaccine manufacturing capabilities to achieve sustainable manufacturing capacity for any future pandemics. To support the Indian healthcare sector, the EXIM Bank and Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) decided upon a $100 million facility which included global capacity for Covid-19 response. For technologies, all four nations launched the Critical and Emerging Technologies Working Group which was also launched in the first-ever Quad meeting as a response to the vulnerabilities in the semiconductor supply chain. This would also open avenues of collaboration with industries for secure telecommunication technologies. For Cybersecurity, the Quad Cybersecurity Partnership through their Computer Emergency Response Teams (CERT) aims to develop resilience in tackling vulnerabilities and responding to threats in cyberspace. In outer space, Quad nations seek to build cooperation, contribute expertise and information to exchange satellite data, and mutually develop guidelines and norms. To tackle climate change, the Climate Working Group was also inaugurated in the very first Quad leaders’ Summit and has strengthened cooperation in responding to the climate crisis. In infrastructure development, the Quad Infrastructure Coordination Group allows collaboration and appropriate action for developing connectivity and transportation.

The Tokyo Summit also marked the initiation of the Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness (IPMDA). This initiative facilitates near-real-time monitoring of water and shores, which enhances the partner nations' maritime capabilities in the Indo-Pacific and the South East Asian region. The Summit also marked the Quad Fellowship which allows and sponsors graduate students of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) from partner nations aiming to boost the cross-cultural exchange of academic opportunities.

THE CHINA ASPECT-

The Quad has come to be regarded as a counterweight to China's expanding influence in the area, with all four countries having had tense ties with Beijing in recent years. Since a violent encounter between forces from both sides along their disputed Himalayan border in May 2020, the India-China relationship has been strained and full of rifts. Since Canberra requested an independent probe into the origins of Covid-19, Australia and China have been embroiled in a series of trade spats, while Japan and China remain at odds over the disputed islands in the East China Sea. The relationship between the United States and China has increasingly worsened, exacerbated by a trade war, pandemic finger-pointing, military sabre-rattling and China challenging the US as a hegemon. The strategic placement of each of the Quad states at opposite ends of the Indo-Pacific, with China, sandwiched in the middle, has alarmed Beijing, which fears military encirclement. It has labelled the group an anti-China clique that represents a poisonous Cold War mindset.

Furthermore, recent polls have revealed that public opinion in these countries is increasingly hostile toward China.[4] To enhance trust in the democracies' ability to challenge China's assertion of regional power, the Quad leaders have promoted collaboration across areas of shared interest. As the Indo-Pacific democracies aim to offset China's increasing strength, the Quad's agenda is likely to broaden as long as tensions with China persist.

CHALLENGES FACED BY QUAD-

Despite its potential for collaboration, the Quad remains an undefined strategic mission framework. Because the Quad is entirely focused on the Indo-Pacific, it is a marine rather than a land-based organisation, raising issues about whether cooperation extends to the Asia-Pacific and Eurasian areas. The fact that India is the sole member who opposes a treaty-based alliance structure has hindered progress toward a stronger Quadrilateral relationship. Members of the Quad have expressed support for Taiwan, which the US equips for self-defence. US President Joe Biden warned that if China attempted to seize Taiwan by force, the US would engage militarily, a statement that appeared to depart from Washington's usual careful vagueness. 

However, many commentators have drawn parallels between Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Taiwan's predicament, with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida stating that peace in the Taiwan Strait is vital and those nations must "never tolerate forceful attempts to disrupt the status quo in East Asia. If Taiwan falls to China, the first island chain will be broken, putting Japanese security at risk. [5] Taiwan's demise poses a serious security danger to all four Quad allies. Then comes North Korea, whose nuclear weapons development is certainly to be discussed within this framework. In contravention of international law and to the dismay of Japan and the United States, the government has recently increased its missile testing. So far this year, it has conducted 15 missile tests, compared to four in 2020 and eight in 2021. [6]

ANALYSIS AND FUTURE-

The Quad countries must better explain the Indo-Pacific Vision in a broader context in order to advance everyone's economic and security interests. This will reassure the littoral states that the Quad will be a factor for regional advantage, rather than a military alliance, as Chinese charges suggest. The next Ministerial meetings can provide a chance to clarify the concept further and plan a course for the future. India has several other Indo-Pacific allies; therefore, it can be a bridge and help in lobbying for nations such as Indonesia and Singapore to be asked to join in the future. India should create a comprehensive Indo-Pacific strategy that considers present and future maritime issues consolidates its military and non-military capabilities, and engages its strategic partners. Other nations, such as the United Kingdom, Canada, Singapore, France, and South Korea, are also predicted to align with the Quad or come close to it on security issues. This could take the form of participating in naval exercises with some or all of the Quad members or openly endorsing the group's security positions. Vietnam, for example, will move closer to the Quad than it is presently. The then Prime Minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe, had presciently said in the Central Hall of the Parliament of India in 2007, "A broader Asia that broke away geographical boundaries is now beginning to take on a distinct form." [7] While this is true, this alliance should focus on pointing out its vision and agenda by taking China and Indo-Pacific scenario into consideration.

REFERENCES-

1.       IPEF: Geo-politics, geo-economics intersect. Deccan Herald. https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/in-perspective/ipef-geo-politics-geo-economics-intersect-1118220.html

2.      Quad Joint Leaders’ Statement. (2022, May 24). The White House. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/05/24/quad-joint-leaders-statement/

3.      The Quad in the Indo-Pacific: What to Know. (n.d.). Council on Foreign Relations, from https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/quad-indo-pacific-what-know

4.     Quad Summit and China: Game theory predictions for the future of the Quad. (n.d.), from https://www.cnbc.com/quad-summit-and-china-game-theory-predictions-for-the-future-of-the-quad/

5.      Hall, I. (n.d.). Explainer: What exactly is the Quad and what’s on the agenda for their Washington summit? The Conversation, from http://theconversation.com/explainer-what-exactly-is-the-quad-and-whats-on-the-agenda-for-their-washington-summit-167988

6.     CNN, J. Y. (n.d.). What’s on the agenda as Biden meets Quad leaders in Tokyo. CNN. , https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/23/asia/the-quad-tokyo-summit-explainer-intl-hnk/index.html

7.      Abe’s Indo-Pacific “Security Diamond” Begins to Shine. (2016, February 8). Nippon.Com. https://www.nippon.com/en/column/g00339/

Pic Courtsey-Nillei News

(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)