Poland’s concerns regarding the Russian attack on Ukraine

The historical role of Poland in the wars has shaped the continent’s history. Poland had seen the worse of World War II, millions and millions of its citizens were wiped out of the land by the dual attack of Germany and Russia. The lies and betrayal that was part of the Russia and Germany combined invasion of Poland is historically pain full. And the many official apologies have been futile n erasing the distrust that remains in the relations between these countries. It also has to be reckoned that Poland borders both Ukraine and Belarus, and will be the first casualty in the event of aggression. Looking back in history, Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact; a secret deal between Russia and Germany on feeding on the remains of Poland after their invasion. Russia invaded Poland in 1939 in which as historians estimate about 5.5 million Polish people died under the Nazi occupation of their country, half of whom were Polish Jews.[1] Another 150,000 died under Soviet rule. Even after the war ended Poland was under communist rule till the 1980s. The historical background indicates that ties between Russia and Poland have always been sore, hence, Poland was always enthusiastic about NATO’s continued support and participation in the region to keep the Russian threat at bay. Recently as highlighted by this article in The Atlantic magazine by Anne Applebaum, Putin has changed the narrative and now blames Poland for starting the Second World War. She observes that in a single week Putin brought u the subject of Polish responsibility for the Second World War no less than five times. He told a group of Russian businessmen that he was consulting with historians and reading up on Polish diplomacy in the 1930s to make this case.[2] Russia which in the Gorbachev era apologised to Poland for atrocities during the war is during the Putin is blaming it for the outbreak of Second World War.

This indicates that the propaganda had started way before raising the threat of Putin’s expansionist aspirations for Poland. Poland had started raising and pushing the US and NATO members to acknowledge the threat posed by Kremlin. Hence, in July 2016 Warsaw pact came into force which entailed that in the event of a crisis, these forces will be reinforced by NATO response force (NRF) along with VJTF ‘spearhead’, whose elements are ready for deployment quickly according to the requirement. Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF) was decided in the NATO Summit in Warsaw in July 2016, the 28-member NATO alliance formally agreed to deploy four battalions totalling 3,000 to 4,000 troops in the Baltic states and Poland on a rotating basis to reassure eastern members.[3] The next tier of NATO reinforcements has been established within the NATO Readiness Initiative (NRI) and comprises 30 mechanised battalions, 30 squadrons and 30 warships, to be ready in 30 days.[4] Poland had complained earlier that Russia had breached the Founding Act. The Founding Act was signed between NATO and Russia in 1997, a political agreement and not legally binding committed NATO to carry out its collective defence and other missions by “ensuring the necessary interoperability, integration, and capability for reinforcement rather than by additional permanent stationing of substantial combat forces” on the territories of the former Warsaw Pact states. [5] The continued expansion of NATO, which threatened Russian security emphasized by Putin several times, led to the building up of tensions in the region. Poland, hence, demanded greater security guarantees from NATO and thus the deployment of NATO forces in Poland further aggravated the situation. The result of which is now the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, which demanded a written assurance from US that Ukraine and Georgia will never be a part of NATO.

This un-stability and chaos have brought back the buried fears among the Polish population. According to a 2019 survey, 74 percent of Poles believe that their nation has historically suffered more than any other. Hence Poland has always been more prepared against Russian threats in the region. Poland’s president was the only European Union leader to attend the Winter Olympics opening Friday, in what his office said was a bid to maintain good ties with China and lobby for an easing of Russia-Ukraine tensions. Poland put in a lot of effort that the situation stabilizes through dialogue and deliberation and if not it prepares for the worst.

 As per US official report, Russia has positioned up to 190,000 troops close to Ukraine's borders ready to invade at any moment. This includes 30, 000 troops participating in a military exercise with complete weaponry in Belarus, a member of the Russian Collective Security Treaty Organization. Russia has been using Belarus to deter Poland. Poland has accused Belarus of hybrid warfare by weaponization of migrants and concurrent wave of propaganda.[6] Poland had months earlier warned of destabilization in the region when the Ukraine talks hit a dead end, however, the west relied on talks and negotiations giving Russian army ample time for military build-up. US troops and NATO eastern flak arrived in Poland only on the 9^th of February.

There are several concerns among the Polish politicians that in case of war what would be the spillover effects, the prime concern is the migration of Ukrainians, the possible Russian invasion of Poland and further escalation of the situation. The Poland government has prepared for the incoming of almost a million refugees. And the threat is not only territorial but cyber which is increasingly playing a greater role in modern warfare also is a cause of concern for Poland.

Conclusion

This invasion could start a larger war in Europe if Russia enters Poland which hopefully Putin is aware of. Ukraine, Poland and the UK have agreed to develop a Trilateral Memorandum of Cooperation, the three states have said in a joint statement. Also, Boris Johnson has said in a statement that an attack on Poland would be an attack on all of us. Even if Putin does not attack Poland the region will be unstable for a long time and Poland will have a larger role to play. Up till now, it has been a vital support to Ukraine providing arms and ammunition. The US and Europe statements’ have been limited to condemning the attack and imposition of sanctions.

Notes

[1] B. Lee, Timothy (2014), “75 years ago, Hitler invaded Poland. Here's how it happened”, The Vox, 1 September, 2014. URL: https://www.vox.com/2014/9/1/6084029/hitlers-invasion-of-poland-explained

[2] Applebaum, Anne (2020),” Putin’s Big Lie”, The Atlantic, 5 January 2020.  

URL:https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/01/putin-blames-poland-world-war-ii/604426/

[3]  Global Security, “Spearhead Force Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF)” URL:https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/int/vjtf.htm

[4] Terilkowski, Marcin (2022), “Poland and NATO’s next strategy: deterring Russia and making European Defence Work” , Real Instituto Elcano. URL:https://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/en/analyses/poland-and-natos-next-strategy-deterring-russia-and-making-european-defence-work-for-the-alliance/

[5]Yost, David S. (2010), “NATO's evolving purposes and the next Strategic Concept”, International Affairs, Oxford University Press. URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/40664078

[6] Kranz, Michal (2022), “How the Russia-Ukraine Crisis Is Turning Poland Into a Strategic Player”, Foreign Affairs Magazine. URL:https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/02/23/poland-ukraine-russia-crisis-nato-strategic-role-military-diplomacy-war/

Pic Courtesy-Jacek Dylag at unsplash.com

(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)