Nuclear Iran and Challenges for Israel
A large explosion was reported near Iran's main nuclear facilities in Natanz, which have been the subject of sabotage efforts in the past, but official media stated it was a controlled test. Israel has regularly threatened Iran with military action, vowing to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. In contrast to Israel, which has dozens of nuclear weapons, Iran has stated that it will never seek a nuclear arsenal. It has also accused Israel of "nuclear terrorism" after two strikes on the Natanz facility last year and another earlier this year on a centrifuge workshop in Karaj.
Israel has been the most vociferous opponent of the agreement, cheering on former US President Donald Trump when he broke it and imposed heavy sanctions on Iran. Following the US exit from the nuclear deal, Iran's nuclear programme has advanced substantially, and the country is currently enriching uranium up to 60%, far above the 3.67 percent maximum set in the agreement. The explosion occurred amid rising tensions between Iran and world countries, as Tehran pushes ahead with its nuclear enrichment programme. It comes a day after nuclear talks in Vienna were suspended, with Western countries accusing Iran of bringing unrealistic demands to the table. In recent years, multiple purported attacks on Iran's uranium enrichment facilities in Natanz have been ascribed to Israel. A mystery explosion destroyed part of the centrifuges at the underground nuclear site there in April. Last July, mysterious flames erupted at Natanz's complex centrifuge assembly plant, which authorities later attributed to sabotage.
Iran is considered an "existential threat" by Israel, despite the fact that the two countries were formerly close partners. They're at conflict more than ever over Iran's nuclear programme, and they're fighting a covert battle across the Middle East. Israel is said to have approved a budget of NIS 5 billion ($1.5 billion) for military preparations in the event of a strike against Iran's nuclear programme. It includes financing for a variety of planes, intelligence-gathering drones, and specialised munitions required for an attack on heavily protected underground facilities. However, according to numerous current and former top Israeli military officials and academics, Israel lacks the capability to carry out an attack that would kill or seriously delay Iran's nuclear programme, at least in the near future. According to one current high-ranking security official, planning a strike that could seriously harm Iran's nuclear programme would take at least two years.
Until now, Israel has used a combination of tough diplomacy and covert assaults to stifle Iran's nuclear programme. When Israeli officials were able to persuade President Donald J. Trump to withdraw from the 2015 agreement, which President Biden now seeks to rescue, they considered it a coup. Israel has also engaged in a covert war involving espionage, targeted killings, sabotage, and cyberattacks — smaller-scale operations for which it has never claimed responsibility. In 2012, Israel considered launching full-scale airstrikes but decided against it. However, as Iran's nuclear enrichment programme approaches weapons-grade levels, Israeli politicians have warned in increasingly open terms what the rest of the world has long assumed: that if Iran is allowed to make progress toward developing a nuclear weapon, which Iran denies, Israel may resort to open warfare.
The Israeli Air Force does not have warplanes large enough to carry the latest bunker-busting bombs, so the more protected sites would have to be struck repeatedly with less effective missiles, a process that could take days or even weeks. Iran has dozens of nuclear sites, some deep underground that would be difficult for Israeli bombs to quickly penetrate and destroy. Any strike on Iran would very certainly be met by retaliation from Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, Iran's supporters who would try to push Israel to fight a war on many fronts at the same time. Iran's defence capabilities are also far superior to what they were in 2012, when Israel last seriously pondered an attack. It has more surface-to-surface missiles that can be launched quickly from tunnels, and its nuclear sites are more guarded.
Iranian authorities do not see themselves in the same light as North Korean leaders—isolation is a factor. However, to politically isolate Iran, the United States must be serious about diplomacy and collaboration, even as it makes plain the repercussions if diplomacy fails to prevent Iran from becoming a threshold nuclear weapons state. This includes threats and declarative policies. For example, China, the world's largest oil importer, requires a stable Middle East free of conflict, and Iran's present nuclear path to threshold weapons status risks exactly that. Noticeable is that neither the Russians nor the Europeans want Iran develop nuclear weapons, and they are well aware of the dangers of a wider Middle East confrontation if Tehran continues on its current course. The aim to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, as well as the belief in utilising diplomacy to achieve that goal, bonds the P5+1 together. In this regard, it is critical to demonstrate not only Washington's commitment to diplomacy, but also the threats to its continued use, including Iran.
A nuclear-armed Iran would wreak havoc on Israel's economy. It would necessitate massive military expenditures (nuclear bunkers, swarms of antimissile missile batteries), foreign investors would be hesitant to invest in Israel, and Israelis would flee in droves for safer climes abroad. Potential Jewish immigrants to Israel would most likely opt to stay in their current location rather than relocate. A nuclear Iran may encourage other countries in the area, such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt, to pursue nuclear weapons, while Iranian allies, such as Bashar Assad's Syria, would undoubtedly seek nuclear weapons once more under Tehran's protection. Proliferation of nuclear weapons in the Middle East does not bode well for Israel. The clock is ticking. The time has come for Israel to choose between conducting a pre-emptive strike and accepting a nuclear Iran and living in its shadow.
Notes-
1. Iran explosion near Natanz nuclear facility a controlled test | Nuclear Energy News | Al Jazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/4/iran-explosion-near-natanz-nuclear-facility-a-controlled-test
2. Israeli official on Iran nuke site blast: 'We don't ask a man what he did at night' | The Times of Israel: https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-official-on-iran-nuke-site-blast-we-dont-ask-a-man-what-he-did-at-night/
3. Air Defence Test Sparks Loud Blast Near Iran Nuclear Site: https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/air-defence-test-sparks-loud-blast-near-iran-nuclear-site-2637580
4. Explosion Heard Near Iranian Nuclear Site Natanz - WSJ: https://www.wsj.com/articles/explosion-heard-near-iranian-nuclear-site-natanz-11638650787
5. Air defense test sparks loud blast near Iran nuclear site: https://www.arabnews.com/node/1980711/middle-east
6. Alliance against Iran: https://www.wionews.com/photos/iran-and-israel-from-allies-to-deadly-enemies-377928#alliance-against-iran-377937
7. Israeli Defense Officials Cast Doubt on Threat to Attack Iran - The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/18/world/middleeast/israel-iran-nuclear-attack.html
8. War: What Israel talks about when it talks about striking Iran's nuclear program | The Times of Israel: https://www.timesofisrael.com/what-israels-talking-about-when-it-talks-about-striking-irans-nuclear-program-war/
9. Netanyahu Is Making an Iran-Israel War More Likely: https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/29611/netanyahu-is-making-an-iran-israel-war-more-likely
10. Israel Is Enhancing Its Air Force’s Ability To Strike Iran: https://www.forbes.com/sites/pauliddon/2021/05/02/israel-reiterates-its-air-forces-capability-to-strike-iran/?sh=6b12d0672dd5
11. On nuclear Iran, Israel faces two terrible options - Israel News - Haaretz.com: https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-israel-s-two-terrible-options-live-with-a-nuclear-iran-or-bomb-it-1.10243995
12. Israel and Iran: A Dangerous Rivalry: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2011/RAND_MG1143.pdf
13. The Threat of War Is the Only Way to Achieve Peace with Iran | The Washington Institute: https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/threat-war-only-way-achieve-peace-iran
Pic Courtsey-Mostafa Meraji at unsplash.com
(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)
