Making Sense of Egyptian Politics: A Decade after Mubarak
The months of September and October mark the historic protest in Egyptian capital Cairo’s Tahrir Square against the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) who assumed power in the backdrop of the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak during the Arab Spring protests in 2011. Despite enjoying a wide legitimacy from the Egyptian people in SCAF’s ability to provide free elections, the transition period from Mubarak’s ouster to the election of Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated Islamist candidate Mohamed Morsi as the next President is marred with demonstrations, dissent and violence. This period is considered as an important episode in Egyptian revolution of 2011, ushering in critical political reforms, some of which stood the test of time.
The cradle of civilization, Egypt sits at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, and Africa. Once the leader of the Arab World, Egyptian Presidents like Nasser, Sadat, and Mubarak, who were military leaders, dominated the core of Egyptian politics and foreign policy. Nasser was not just the leader of Egypt; the man was a phenomenon. His popularity can be obtained from the 1960s when Nasserism was used to describe the concept of Arabisation and Arab nationalism and unity.
Two sides have largely dominated Egyptian politics. Traditional rivals, the military who have controlled Egypt since the ouster of the monarch in 1952 and the Muslim Brotherhood who incorporated Islamist ideals in governance and eventually became a prime opposition to military dominance.
The most recent elections in the country took place in late 2020 amid a raging pandemic. Amendments made to the 2014 Constitution that were implemented for this election include 25% and 10% reservation of seats for women in the House of Representatives and the Senate, respectively. The 300-member Senate itself is a result of 2019 amendments that is seen as a replacement of the Shura Council that was abolished in 2014 on excessive corruption charges. Despite positive strides of women participation, the electoral exercise was marred by low turnout, claims of fraud and vote-buying, high-handedness and interference by security forces and intimidation of individuals who criticized the process.
In an electoral referendum held just before the 2019 elections, al-Sisi won a major victory in bringing changes to the 2014 constitution that paved the way for him to consolidate his power and position in the country. Accused of rigging and vote-buying, the electoral changes include extending Presidential terms to six years and a provision that will let Sisi run for President in 2024 as well, expanding the President's control over the judiciary and a definite role for the military in the government.
The opposition in Egyptian politics is non-existent as political challengers are either pressured to withdraw like in the 2018 elections or they are detained on fraudulent terms. Multiple political parties exist but only on paper with no substantial possibility of winning a seat in parliamentary elections.
The Muslim Brotherhood
Egypt’s political culture is distinctively marked by the emergence of the Muslim Brotherhood. What emerged as a socio-religious organisation to revive Islam and promote an anti-West stance, the goals of the group eventually got politicised. Egypt’s early days as an independent state was marred by a cycle of violence between the political class and members of the Brotherhood. In the aftermath of the successful assassination of Prime Minister Ma?mud Fahmi al-Nuqrashi in 1948 and failed attempt in 1954 to eliminate Nasser, the group’s popularity fell among the masses and it mostly went underground due to state’s repression.
During Mubarak’s time, Muslim Brotherhood began taking part in electoral politics but had little success owing to the ban on its members and voting restrictions in the state. The Arab Spring became a turning point for the Islamists and Mubarak’s resignation created a political vacuum in the country. Participating for the first in open elections, the Freedom and Justice Party (FJP), a political party commenced by Muslim Brotherhood won nearly half of the votes and dominated the Egyptian parliament along with the ultraconservative Nur party.
Among the achievements according to Morsi, the leader of FJP and President of Egypt is writing a constitution from scratch that reflects the ethos of modern-day Egypt without giving up its civilisational values. The 2014 Constitution was a significant improvement of an earlier 1980 version promising equality in public rights and freedoms. It accommodated Egypt’s diverse ethnic and religious minorities in the letter if not in spirit.
Despite a promising future of stability and progress, the Islamists rule remained controversial where critics alleged rising violence against dissenters and use of Islam as a political tool. Amid mass demonstrations against the President, the Morsi-led government was soon overthrown in a coup led by Egypt’s Minister of Defence and the head of Egyptian armed forces Abdel Fattah el-Sisi after Morsi failed the 48-hour ultimatum to meet the demands of protestors. In 2014, Sisi was elected to office as President, in an election largely discarded as rigged by national and international organisations.
After the coup, the country’s first democratically-elected President Morsi was put under trial for crimes like murdering protestors, clandestine contacts with Iran-backed militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah and insulting the judiciary. In 2019, Morsi collapsed and reportedly died during a court hearing before paramedics could reach him as he was locked in a glass cage. Human rights groups allege brutal detention and prison conditions along with deliberate lack of access to adequate medical care by the Sisi-led Egyptian government behind the former President's death.
The Sisi regime has since taken an iron-fisted approach to weed out the Brotherhood leadership in a systematic manner. Fearing resistance from its members as opposition to his rule, many members and activists belonging to the group have been detained, jailed and executed while the Brotherhood itself remains banned and branded as a ‘terrorist organisation’.
Legacy of the Arab Spring
The Arab Spring protests took over the WANA like a wildfire. From Tunisia to Bahrain, people took to the streets against the autocratic regimes, dwindling economic conditions and limited socio-political rights. Out of the many countries that the protests spread to, only four crumbled against the will of its people. Egypt was one of them. In less than 20 days after protests erupted, the autocrat President Hosni Mubarak resigned and was later acquitted of his repressive crimes against the civilians during the protest. This legacy of the Arab spring remains etched in the minds of people who are battling a repressive government that is sensitive towards the slightest of criticism. The socio-economic conditions have worsened since, most of the indicators showing a negative trend. Both poverty and unemployment levels have crossed 30% in a population of 100 million-plus. The political and civil rights continue to dwindle under Sisi. According to World Freedom Report 2021, Egypt is a ‘Not Free’ country with a score of 18/100, which has continuously declined since 2017. The country ranks 166/180 in World Press Freedom Index 2021 and has retained the spot in the bottom 20 for some years now.
While the conditions at home remain tightly held under a military autocrat, Egypt is trying to reinvent itself as the ‘Land of the Pharaohs’ and forge a national identity. The leaders are trying to strike a historical and cultural chord to please domestic audiences. The country continues to push forward its foreign policy agenda by reaching out and expanding its influence in Africa and the Middle East. The Nile river remains an issue of contention between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan. The country that became the first Arab country to normalise its relations with Israel recently brokered a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas militants. Al-Sisi visit to Iraq, the first visit of an Egyptian President in three decades indicates a central role that the country is carving in the Middle East.
References:
[1] https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/09/09/egypt-trends-in-politics-economics-and-human-rights-pub-82677
[2] https://timep.org/commentary/analysis/egypts-elections-and-parliament-old-habits-never-die/
[3] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-56000950
[4] https://carnegie-mec.org/2019/03/11/surviving-repression-how-egypt-s-muslim-brotherhood-has-carried-on-pub-78552
[5] https://freedomhouse.org/country/egypt/freedom-world/2021
[6] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/6/14/egypt-upholds-death-penalty-for-12-muslim-brotherhood-members
Pic Courtesy-Ahmed Ezzat at unsplash.com
(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)
