Korean Missile launches and tensions in East Asia
North Korea's latest missile tests have created a lot of commotion around the world, not just in East Asia. Numerous types of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and hypersonic missiles are now being tested. Kim Jong Un, the leader of North Korea, emphasized that his country would never give up the nuclear weapons it needed to stand up to the United States. In Kim's opinion, the use of nuclear weapons is a move to solidify the nation's nuclear status and convey the message that such weapons would not be up for negotiation. He said that North Korea's tests serve as a successful illustration of its armed forces' growing nuclear strike capability and readiness for "actual war."
In a move that apparently shows its increasingly aggressive nuclear doctrine, North Korea recently passed a new law designed to authorize the pre-emptive use of nuclear weapons in certain conditions. This new law makes the country’s nuclear status "irreversible" and bars any talks of denuclearisation (Times, 2022). As per Indian Express (Banka, 2022), this law could be implemented if Pyongyang thinks there is an impending nuclear attack or if Pyongyang believes that its state’s existence faces threats or the command organization of its nuclear forces is threatened.
“The utmost significance of legislating nuclear weapons policy is to draw an irretrievable line so that there can be no bargaining over our nuclear weapons.”- Kim Jong Un
In response to the passage of this law, the US and its main ally, South Korea, restarted their anti-North Korean submarine drills, which were last conducted in 2017 when the US dispatched three aircraft carriers, including the Reagan, for naval exercises with South Korea. After 2017, the large-scale military exercises were scaled back or discontinued in order to promote Pyongyang-related diplomacy or because of COVID-19.
On September 23, the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan docked in the port of Busan, South Korea, as part of the renewed four-day drills. Additionally, according to the reports, more than 20 U.S. and South Korean naval ships, fighter aircraft, and helicopters were all deployed for the exercises. The raison d'être of this was to demonstrate their strength in the face of rising North Korean threats.
North Korea responded by launching a missile on September 25, 2022. The missile, which landed in the waters off the east coast of the North, is believed to have flown around 600 kilometers (370 miles) at a height of 60 kilometers (37 miles), according to estimates from South Korea. The next direct impetus was provided when U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris visited South Korea on September 29, 2022, and reaffirmed America's "ironclad" commitment to the security of its Asian allies. This time, North Korea retaliated by launching two short-range ballistic missiles into the ocean hours after Harris departed South Korea. The estimated range of the missiles was 300 to 350 kilometers (180 to 217 miles), while their highest point was 50 kilometers (30 miles).
The next incentive came to North Korea on September 30, when South Korea, the United States, and Japan staged their first trilateral anti-submarine maneuvers. The three-nation training exercise, which lasted one day, was held off the east coast of the Korean Peninsula in response to North Korea's desire to enhance its capacity to launch missiles from submarines. The U.S.-South Korean military drills were seen by North Korea as a preparation for an invasion, and they were also described as "a serious threat to the stability of the situation on the Korean Peninsula." Therefore, North Korea once again launched a large number of missiles in response to that.
The first counterattack to the trilateral drilling exercise came on October 1, 2022, when North Korea fired ballistic missiles. According to estimates from South Korea and Japan, the missiles, which fell in waters between the Korean Peninsula and Japan, travelled between 350 and 400 kilometers (220 and 250 miles) and reached a maximum height of 30 to 50 kilometers (20 to 30 miles). Then a nuclear-capable ballistic missile that might reach Guam in the U.S. Pacific and beyond was tested by North Korea on October 4, 2022, prompting the Japanese government to issue evacuation notices and stop train services. Later, on October 6, 2022, North Korea launched four bombers and eight fighter jets very close to the South Korean border, causing the South to launch 30 military aircraft in response. Furthermore, North Korea launched two ballistic missiles on October 9, two long-range cruise missiles on October 12, and most recently, a short-range ballistic missile on October 14.
How have the countries responded?
In reaction, South Korea slapped on North Korea the first unilateral restrictions it had carried out in the previous five years. Sanctions have been placed on 15 North Korean people and 16 groups suspected of engaging in illegal activities to fund the country's nuclear and missile programs. Japan also backed these measures.
“This was a reckless act and a clear violation of relevant Security Council resolutions. This launch risks triggering a significant escalation of tensions in the region and beyond. It is of serious concern that the DPRK has again disregarded any consideration for international flight or maritime safety”- Assistant-Secretary-General of UN Khaled Khiari
António Guterres, the chief of the UN, also urged North Korea to immediately stop all future destabilizing actions and to pick up the dialogue towards denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula (Latest DPR Korea missile launch risks escalating tensions, Security Council hears, 2022).
Additionally, the US placed restrictions on Asian individuals and companies it believes are assisting North Korea in breaking U.N. sanctions by obtaining fuel. The US accused them of transporting fuel via an "illicit ship-to-ship transfer," which circumvents United Nations restrictions prohibiting the purchase of petroleum products and aids North Korea's weapons and military development. The sanctioned companies are Swanseas Port Services Pte. Ltd., Anfasar Trading (S) Pte. Ltd., and New Eastern Shipping Co. Ltd., all of which have their headquarters in Singapore. In addition, the U.S. targeted Chen Shih Huan in Taiwan and Kwek Kee Seng in Singapore for organizing the supplies (Brunnstrom, 2022).
What exactly is North Korea attempting to demonstrate by firing so many missiles?
According to an Associated Press article (Klug, 2022), each North Korean missile launch fulfills at least three aims at the same time. First, Kim Jong Un can use it to show his supporters that he is a strong leader who can fend off outside aggressors. Furthermore, his researchers can address the technological issues that are still inhibiting the development of new weapons. Thirdly, and most significantly, every test sends a strong message that Washington must deal with North Korea as it is despite the numerous challenges the Biden administration has, including the conflict in Ukraine, rising Chinese assertiveness, and a fragile domestic economy.
In addition to this, some observers are pointing out that North Korea is attempting to take advantage of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Because, while the United States is preoccupied with resolving the Ukraine crisis, North Korea can quickly expedite its weapons development.
In addition to this war, Kim Jong Un has fertile ground to further his objectives thanks to the discord in the United Nations. The United Nations is divided, making it impossible to take action against North Korea due to disagreements between Russia and the United States and further disagreements between China and the USA.
Recently, the US tried to get the UN to impose more sanctions on North Korea for its missile testing, but China and Russia vetoed the resolution. China and Russia have both accused the US of encouraging North Korea to conduct further missile tests. They have maintained that North Korea was forced to act as a result of US-led military drills. Additionally, according to Anna Evstigneeva, Russia's deputy U.N. envoy, North Korea's move was motivated by the "irresponsibility" of U.S.-led exercises and increasing U.S. partnerships with allies in the Asia-Pacific area.
In light of the North's economic dependency on China, South Korea's vice defense minister, Shin Beomchul, recently asserted that China "holds the largest key" to North Korea's disarmament (Kim, 2022). He cautioned that if there was no criticism at the UN Security Council, North Korea would think it was one step closer to being acknowledged as a nuclear power.
Additionally, some analysts have stated that North Korea is testing missiles in an effort to exert pressure on the United States. It is trying to convince the US to embrace the notion that North Korea is a nuclear power with the ability to bargain for economic and security concessions. Furthermore, the current firings demonstrate North Korea's traditional strategy of increasing pressure on the South when it doesn't obtain what it wants from the United States.
Way forward
The rising number of missile tests by North Korea has shaken the world. The world is already facing the burn of the Russia-Ukraine war and therefore cannot afford to engage in another destabilisation. Hence, the first and foremost solution could be dialogue. There is a need to talk with North Korea. The UN can be used for that. However, for that to happen, the contending countries, such as the US, China, and Russia, have to iron out their differences, at least on the North Korea nuclearization issue. In this way, the UN can impose sanctions on the rising nuclear capability of North Korea.
References
1. Banka, N. (2022, September 14). North Korea’s new ‘irreversible’ law on nuclear arms use. Retrieved from Indian Express: https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-global/north-korea-nuclear-weapons-irreversible-law-explained-8150516/
2. Brunnstrom, D. P. (2022, October 7). U.S. targets Singapore, Marshall Islands firms in new North Korea sanctions. Retrieved from Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-targets-singapore-marshall-islands-based-firms-new-north-korea-sanctions-2022-10-07/
3. Kim, H. J. (2022, September 01). S. Korea: China, Russia hold key to North’s denuclearization. Retrieved from The Associated Press: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-china-united-states-seoul-665fa9363c0d935770745a2aaa5536e7
4. Klug, F. (2022, October 7). Analysis: North Korean missile launches are a test for Biden. Retrieved from The Associated Press: https://apnews.com/article/biden-seoul-north-korea-government-and-politics-549cecfc07e0ec20fde77f3a9594240e
5. Latest DPR Korea missile launch risks escalating tensions, Security Council hears. (2022, October 5). Retrieved from UN: https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/10/1129282
6. Times, T. S. (2022, September 9). North Korea makes nuclear weapons policy 'irreversible' with new law: State media. Retrieved from The Strait Times: https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/north-korea-makes-nuclear-weapons-policy-irreversible-with-new-law-state-media
Pic Courtsey-Micha Brandli at unsplash.com
(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)
