Is Commonwealth Disintegrating?
The demise of Queen Elizabeth II last month was no ordinary event in contemporary global politics. Among other pertinent debates regarding the survival of the political integration of Great Britain, it has also sparked the already raging debate about the prospects of the British Commonwealth, which traces its roots back to the Balfour Declaration of 1926. King Charles, who succeeds her, will have his hands full to preserve an incredible legacy of trust and faith that the Queen enjoyed despite the bitter aspects of colonial legacy and oppression in many of these former colonies.
To be sure, it is not the first time such trends about the fragility of the Commonwealth have been evident. In the 1970s, a range of countries, including Dominica, Guyana and Trinidad and Tobago, decided to sever their ties with the Commonwealth, effectively removing the Queen as head of their state. Just last year, Barbados left the Commonwealth realm in its quest to leave the baggage of the colonial past behind entirely. In addition, counties such as Jamaica and Australia, with the coming of the Albanese administration, have started contemplating pulling out of the Commonwealth realm.
Origins of the Commonwealth
The concretization of the idea of the Commonwealth, home to 2/3rd of the world's population, was borne out of the desire for self-rule. The burgeoning of the concept can be attributed to queen victoria, who in 1867 proposed such a grouping so that Great Britain could maintain its control over the colonies in the wake of independence movements. In 1867, Canada became a dominion, with the Queen continuing to serve as the head of the state. Later, a host of white colonies, which included Australia, New Zealand and South Africa, also gained dominion status.
As the nationalist sentiments gained steam after the first world war, the establishment and formalization of the British Commonwealth of nations happened with the signing of the treaty of Westminster in 1931. Based on a tacit understanding at the imperial conference of Balfour declaration of 1926, it stated that the United Kingdom and its dominion would be equal in status and in no way subordinate to each other regarding their domestic and external affairs.
Presently, this intergovernmental political organization comprises 56 member states, including 15 countries constituting part of the Commonwealth realms. The British monarch is the head of the state of these countries. Thirty-six other member states are a republic, and the other five- Brunei Darussalam, Lesotho, Malaysia, Eswatini (formerly Swaziland) and Tonga — have their monarchs implying that the membership of the Commonwealth was not based on the sole criteria of recognizing British monarch as the head of the state.
Relevance of the Commonwealth
The commonality of the English language, historical ties and shared values of democracy, human rights and the rule of law has been critical for these counties who have utilized the platform not only to advance their viewpoint but have also viewed it as a strong network of diplomatic and cultural leverage and for exercising soft power on the global stage.
The relevance of the Commonwealth as a forum is amplified by the fact that in the present age of multilateral diplomacy, it serves as an indispensable forum where a range of countries from different continents across the globe can express their views, put forward their interest and play a key role in shaping and moulding of global norms. The sheer diversity of the commonwealth countries in terms of their income and wealth status, ethnicity, and key position on a host of issues, primarily developmental and environmental issues, is a testament to the fact that it neither represents a global north nor the global south, a characteristic bias inherent to other such forums like G7, NATO and the EU.
Trends Pointing to The Declining Relevance of the Commonwealth
The Commonwealth of nations which for such a long time enjoyed a certain degree of stability partly owing to the popularity of the Queen's leadership is now showing signs of strains. A series of recent events beginning with the reality of BREXIT in 2016, a growing tide of republican governments in many of the commonwealth countries and most recent the exit of Barbados in 2021 have contributed to this phenomenal decline. If anything, the demise of Queen Elizabeth II is only likely to exacerbate these trends.
Jamaica, the largest commonwealth realm in the Caribbean, grabbed headlines last year due to dramatic events. Indeed, these events, which include the visit of Prince William and Princess Catherine marred by protests by the local Mayan population leading to the cancellation of the visit to Belize, do not augur well for the future of the British Commonwealth of nations. Not only this, the affirmation of Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness that it would be moving on to fulfil its true ambitions of an independently developed and prosperous country, along with growing demands for reparations, is a clear manifestation of frustrations with the Commonwealth. It was in accordance with the timeline of the Jamaican government, according to which it has to become a republic as it nears its next general elections in 2025.
Australia presents a fascinating case in the entire scheme of things. The country already witnessed a referendum in 1999 when deciding the method to choose the head of the state was defeated by a vote of 55 per cent who reposed their faith in Queen Elizabeth II and 45 per cent who favoured a republican system. With the election of Anthony Albanese, a republican Prime Minister, the debates have gained renewed momentum.
A common thread that emerges from all these is that the personality of queen Elizabeth II acted like glue in preventing the balkanization of the Commonwealth. The crown, in general, was hated and despised by almost all the former colonies, which bore the brunt of colonial oppression. With the Queen's demise, therefore, the fate of the Commonwealth hangs in the balance.
Causes For A Likely Disintegration
Notwithstanding the above trends in a host of member states, certain states such as New Zealand, whose Prime Minister Jacinda Arden has unequivocally ruled out any such possibility, and Canada, where such a change requires a constitutional change unlikely to happen anytime in future and Papua New Guinea which remains a bright spot in the Caribbean, does caution us to take this proposition with a pinch of salt.
The first and foremost reason could be the relatively lower popularity of king Charles III as compared to her mother. Question marks have already been raised regarding his competency to manage the cohesiveness of the royal family and the United Kingdom. Recent polls have suggested that he is not only less popular than his mother but even his son, Prince William, who is his likely successor.
Secondly, the timing of the Queen's death and the ascendancy of Prince Charles III is exceptionally precarious. The country has witnessed a change in the Head of the state and Head of the government in relatively quick successions. Queen's death is likely to lead to even more domestic political instability given that the country has already seen a continuous change in the Prime Minister in 6 years. At the regional level, the country is still grappling with the issue of BREXIT. The Ukraine war has further deteriorated the economic and political conditions of the country. The government is facing a severe energy crisis and carrying the burden of providing weaponry to Ukraine as a critical backer for Kyiv in the war. All of these do not bode well for the newly elected monarch.
Thirdly, the monarch will have his hands full in dealing with a rising tide of separatist sentiments within the United Kingdom. The momentum for independence has gained strength in both Scotland and Northern Ireland. Even in Wales, about one-fourth of its citizens favour the demands for independence.
Fourthly, with the demise of Queen Elizabeth, who was highly revered in these former colonies despite the crimes of colonialism, prince Charles has his tasks cut out as he faces growing demands for political independence and reparations further heightened in the wake of Black Lives Matter protests.
Future Trajectory
The future trajectory of the Commonwealth depends mainly on the kind of leadership that the United Kingdom continues to provide to the Commonwealth. First, it needs to bring our house in order. The likelihood of the UK and its Commonwealth being preserved as a cohesive entity depends very much on what prince Charles proposes as a new mechanism to rejuvenate the Commonwealth. The Commonwealth, to remain relevant, is in dire need of some radical reforms, such as making it less UK-centric. Also, the economic and political health of the UK needs to be good for members to see concrete benefits in continuing with the organization. The present scenario clearly shows the reverse.
A second likely scenario could be only a partial disintegration of the Commonwealth in which some countries are given the requisite political space to fulfil their long-standing desire for political independence. However, this would not imply the severance of ties with the Commonwealth or the United Kingdom. It would simply mean they remain part of the British Commonwealth while choosing the heads of state method they wish to use. Here again, the astute leadership of princes Charles III would determine if he could evolve such frameworks where relations could be strengthened without jeopardizing any constitutional or political crisis.
A third likely and rather dangerous scenario could be the complete disintegration of the Commonwealth and its replacement with an alternative framework. While this would not only deal a big blow to Prince Charles III's authority and legitimacy and further aggravate the already existing fissiparous tendencies, it would undoubtedly come as a moral and psychological shock for ordinary British citizens.
Conclusion
Therefore, to sum up, it could be argued that while the trends for disintegration have already become quite evident in the last few years, the current geopolitical and geoeconomic crisis coupled with the demise of the Queen has already accentuated the existing trends. A lot, therefore, depends on the UK's capability to get its own house in order in terms of managing internal political and economic contradictions and the deft, astute and nimble-footed leadership of newly appointed monarch Prince Charles III.
Pic Courtsey-Ang Bob at unsplash.com
(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)
