Is China planning something in South China Sea?

Vietnam’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson said in her statement “The establishment of the so-called Sansha City and related activities seriously violated Vietnam’s sovereignty”. She added, “Vietnam demands that China respect Vietnam’s sovereignty and abolish its wrongful decisions”. Earlier in the first week of April 2020 China drowned one of the Vietnamese fishing boat seriously threatening the lives of the fishermen on board the boat. The US Department of Defense in its press note released on April 9 stated “is greatly concerned by reports of a China Coast Guard vessel's collision with and sinking of a Vietnam fishing vessel in the vicinity of the Paracel Islands in the South China Sea”.  In a follow up note, US state department in its statement (April 18) said, “The United States is concerned by reports of China’s repeated provocative actions aimed at the offshore oil and gas development of other claimant states”. Further it added, “in this instance, (China) should cease its bullying behaviour and refrain from engaging in this type of provocative and destabilizing activity”.   Former Foreign Affairs Secretary of Philippines Albert del Rosario has urged his government to take note of the provocative measures undertaken by Chinese navy and the establishment of two new districts. Justice Carpio who successfully presented the Philippines case at Permanent Arbitration Council (PAC) against China’s reclamation activities in SCS in 2016 stated that his government need to assail China’s establishment of new districts. The Duterte government is yet to make any substantial official statement in this regard.

In the last two years, Chinese activities have increased in the SCS region with particular attention in the close proximity of the islands occupied by Vietnam, Malaysia and Philippines. It has also started bullying tactics with its coastguard and fishermen militia near the Natuna islands which is a completely non-disputed area and falls under Indonesia’s EEZ. Last year in August 2019, China has increased its patrolling activities in Vanguard bank which is in Vietnam’s EEZ, in a bid to threaten the country from developing resources in the SCS, and now it has started its intimidating tactics in Union banks. The two countries most affected because of Chinese encroachment activities are Vietnam and Philippines. Vietnam has been demanding for a “substantive and effective” code after the draft CoC was finalized by the SCS claimant states. China has been procrastinating negotiations with the claimant states and has been stressing on bilateral dialogue with the claimant states, so as to avoid binding commitments and protect its core interests.

On December 12, 2019, Malaysia had represented its case of extended continental shelf beyond the 200 nautical miles (Article 76, paragraph 8 of the convention) to the Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS) which falls under the UN. Under this formal representation it is noted by Malaysia, “this is a partial submission for the remaining portion of the continental shelf of Malaysia beyond 200 nautical miles in the northern part of the South China Sea. Malaysia and the Socialist Republic of Vietnam had on 6 May 2009 made a joint submission for a portion of the two States’ continental shelf, in the southern part of the South China Sea”. This issue has been included in the provisional agenda of the fifty-third session of the Commission which would be held in July-August 2021. Further, Vietnam becoming the non-permanent member of the UNSC had increased anxieties for China. Vietnam is also the ASEAN Chair for the year 2020 and had a major say in listing the agenda items for the summit meetings. 

During the month of March 2020, China has been pugnacious in its approach and has been fomenting trouble for all the claimant countries of South China Sea islands. It has not stopped only to the claimant countries but has also started encroaching into the Indonesia’s Exclusive Economic Zone with a brute show of power, supported through its escorting coast guard ships and fishermen militia better known as People’s Armed Forces Maritime Militia (PAFMM). Filipino fishermen had been threatened in and around the Scarborough shoal area during last year while in the early April this year one of Vietnamese boats was drowned by the Chinese coastguard ship.

China undertook multiple sorties through Shaanxi Y-8 maritime aircrafts near the Luzon Strait connecting Taiwan and Philippines. The strategic purpose was a show of strength after US has conducted few exercises with Taiwan and also conducted surveillance flights with P-8I Poseidon maritime aircraft. Chinese ships also fired laser rays at the US surveillance aircrafts which was criticized by the US administration. The provocation in the SCS is happening at the time when the whole world is trying to save lives from the Wuhan virus pandemic and the global economy is likely to face severe recession. China is trying to divert international attention when it is increasingly accused for its non-transparency related to Coronavirus and the reported casualty figures inside Chinese provinces of Hubei 

Following the recent declaration of new districts, China has drawn international attention to the SCS issue and there is a need for international intervention so that Chinese activities can be curbed. A firm commitment from China should be sought for maintaining peace and tranquility in the waters. South China Sea is going to figure prominently in UN Security Council discussions as the world has started the process of asking for reparations from China for the damages that the coronavirus has caused to their economies and the lives of citizens.

There are certain measures that the international community needs to take to constrain Chinese activities. First it should acknowledge that the ASEAN draft CoC would be the primary documents for negotiations and force would be completely abhorred in the SCS. Secondly, the SCS must find mention in the UNSC discussion as already now when Malaysia has brought it to the attention of UNSC. Lastly, the Chinese activities should be matched with international group sail so as to show the responsibility to protect international commons and bring rationality within SCS. Vietnam on its part would have to urge ASEAN claimant states to accept the status quo till a lasting solution is found. Secondly, it must make a strong mention of the Chinese activities in the ASEAN Chairman statement which would be released this year. Lastly, it must ask for an online meeting among the ASEAN states to discuss this issue and bring consensus for the future course of action. Even a security partnership agreement with the US forces can be explored.  

{Pic courtesy –Vietnam News Agency(VNA)}

(The views expressed are personal)