India Turkey Relationship and the looming Pakistan factor
A senior Turkish lawmaker described India and Turkey as 'natural allies', who have a historical relationship which has grown over the years. Their bilateral relationships have strengthened over the years as the number of official exchanges have increased along with economic ties. However, one of the hurdles to developing a more fruitful relationship between the two countries is - Turkey's pro-Pakistan stance. This hurdle is yet to be overcome and a recent Pakistan factor in the Kashmir conflict has emerged when the Modi government revoked the special status given to Kashmir. This has emerged as a source of contention between the Turkey-India relationship.
India and Turkey might differ in history, religious and economic demographics and population size, but they have two elements in common - both these countries which were founded in 20th century have gone through tremendous technological and economic advances and have become important players in the international politics, capable of influencing foreign policy decisions. United against their struggle against the colonial powers, both Turkey and India have been on friendly terms. However post-independence, India and Turkey did not maintain this friendly relation, as post partition, Turkey's engagement in South Asia became Pakistan centric, which, till date, continues. Another differing stance post-independence between the both countries was having different Cold War strategic orientations, where Turkey, a newly decolonised country, became a part of NATO by joining Baghdad pact which was in sharp contrast with India's non-aligned posture and friendliness towards the Soviet Union.
Post-Cold War, the then Prime Minister of Turkey Turgut Ozal sought to rebuild the relations with India. During his 1986 visit to New Delhi, both the sides agreed to open Défense Attache's offices in each other's capital. Over the next several years, both Turkey and India made several advancements in economic and strategic sphere. Both the countries agreed to bilateral investment promotion and protection, prevention of trafficking in narcotics (1998), avoidance of double taxation and tourism (1995).
Under the governance of the Turkish Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit, India's relationship with Turkey improved significantly. This was mostly attributed this his pro-India stance which was primarily because he disapproved of the coup d’état led by Parvez Musharraf who became the Prime Minister of Pakistan post that. During his governance, Ankara revised its traditional stance on the Kashmir issue, moving away from advocating a resolution to conflict based on UN supervision to calling for a bilateral settlement of the dispute.
The era of new engagement was also promoted by Atal Bihari Vajpayee, who, during his visit to Turkey in 2003, diversified the cooperation agenda by promoting an open and non-discriminatory global trade regime and collaborating in the development of Central Asian energy sources. The engagement high continued when Justice and Development (AKP) came to power. AKP party in its initial stages under Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdo?an had a strong EU and developmental agenda as the Turkish leadership wanted to diversify Turkey's trade network to escape the middle-income trap. India, as a rising power, was a more lucrative partner to do that as it offered more benefits to Turkey in comparison to Pakistan. This led to deepening of economic ties between the India and Turkey. The volume of bilateral trade between both the countries has increased from $505 million in 2002 to $8.7 billion in 2018, making India Turkey's second largest trade partner after China. In 2019, the volume of India-Turkey trade was around at 7.7 billion, moving way beyond Turkey's trade with Pakistan (around $803 million).
The economic partnership between both the countries has growing significance amongst the Turkish policymakers and this was highlighted in President Erdo?an’s 2017 visit to India when he was accompanied by 100-member business delegation. During the same visit, Ankara showed interest in India's smart cities initiative to increase capitalization of Turkish firms in construction and infrastructure sector. There is also a growing interest from Indian investors to tap into the Turkish market especially after Turkey’s growing proximity to expansive markets including Europe. These developments suggest that there is mutual interest between both the countries to deepen the economic ties.
Despite the recent positive developments in commercial and other economic fronts, Turkey-India relations have continued to have their share of differences. Political issues threaten to hamper the relationship between both the countries. There Turkish leadership has put pressure on the Indian government to shut down the Gülen movement schools, a network of private or semi-private schools founded by Turkish Americans, after Ankara declared Gülen Movement as a terrorist organisation in 2016.
At the same time, Indian officials have become increasingly wary of the growing proximity of Turkey with Pakistan. The Indian officials are worried about the Turkish government intention of using India's Muslim minority (a huge number) and use it for Pakistan's benefit. Also, the past developments have soured the relationship between the two powers. India's exclusion from Turkey led dialogue in Afghanistan in 2010 and Ankara's attempt to block India's membership to Nuclear Supplier Group, both allegedly due to Pakistan’s pressure has strained the relationship.
Successive governments of Ankara have supported Pakistan on the issue of Kashmir. Despite their best efforts to overcome their differences by promoting economic cooperation, Indo-Turkish relationships have worsened under Erdogan’s leadership. In 2017, just before his state visit to New Delhi, Erdogan had made comments where he suggested “multilateral dialogue” to resolve the Kashmir dispute. This statement came at a time when Erdo?an was fully aware that his comments were contrary to India's long-standing position that Kashmir is a bilateral matter with Pakistan. The Modi government has been quite unforgiving when it comes to the Kashmir issue. Erdogan has been cosying up with Pakistan especially after India abrogated Article 370 of the Indian Constitution in early August 2019, scrapping the special provisions for the state of Jammu and Kashmir. In September 2019, Erdogan told the United Nations (UN) General Assembly (UNGA) that the international community has not paid “enough attention” to the Kashmir conflict, further arguing that “despite the resolutions adopted by the UN Security Council, Kashmir is still besieged and eight million people are stuck in Kashmir.” His statements did not go down well with New Delhi. Relations nosedived to such an extent that Modi decided to cancel his two-day state visit to Ankara, which was scheduled in October 2019. Going a step further, India condemned Turkey’s military operation in northern Syria. During a joint session of Pakistani Parliament during his February 2020 visit to Pakistan, Erdo?an again pledged his continuous support for Islamabad's stance on Kashmir.
While Ankara's relationship with New Delhi has become sour, Turkey's ties with Pakistan have been upgraded to a strategic partnership. The Pakistan factor has always been a big hurdle between both the countries and has soured their bilateral relationship time and again. Recent trends in the geopolitical landscape do not bode for the development of bilateral relationship for both the countries. While India is an important trading partner for Turkey, there is a need to neutralise the Pakistan factor in the Indo-Turkish relationship, which will surely be very difficult for Turkey to achieve and for India to move beyond.
Pic Courtesy- Osman Köycü at unsplash.com
(The views expressed are personal.)
