India’s approach to the China-Bhutan border negotiations
On October 23, Lyonpo Tandi Dorji, Minister of Foreign Affairs and External Trade met with the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing as part of the 25th Round of Boundary Talks in Beijing where the Chinese delegation was led by Sun Weidong, Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs of China [1].
In the meeting, China expressed that Bhutan must establish diplomatic ties with it and resolve the boundary dispute at the earliest to formalize relations between the two neighbors. Minister Dorji also met with Chinese Vice President Han Zheng, who stated the two countries agreed to speed up the process of demarcating borders and establishing diplomatic relations [2]. As part of Beijing's efforts to expedite the resolution of the boundary problem, both nations established a technical group on the delimitation of the China-Bhutan border. Moreover, at an 'Expert Group Meeting' (EGM) in August, both sides agreed to form a technical group and to take "simultaneous steps" to hasten the implementation of a 'three-step roadmap' leading to border demarcation [3].
Dorji's visit to Beijing marks the first visit by a Bhutanese foreign minister, before which efforts to resolve the disputed border had been ineffective. This 25th round of discussions was also held after a seven-year hiatus. This protracted pause followed the Doklam standoff in the summer of 2017 when Indian and Chinese soldiers became embroiled in the remote yet sensitive Himalayan region where Bhutan, India (Sikkim), and China (the Tibet Autonomous Region) meet. The boundary talks went through a further setback in the aftermath of the Covid-19 outbreak [4].
China-Bhutan Border Demarcation:
Bhutan, a historic ally of India, does not have diplomatic relations with China and alongside India, is the only two of China's 14 land neighbors that have yet to resolve boundary issues with Beijing. According to the official Xinhua news agency, Han Zheng described Bhutan and China as "friendly neighbors sharing mountains and rivers," and praised recent progress in bilateral ties as both sides were able to reach an agreement on accelerating the demarcation process and the establishment of diplomatic relations where Dorji also reiterated Bhutan's support for the One-China principle [5]. Despite the perpetual setbacks and long hiatuses, Bhutan and China's border-related meetings appear to demonstrate their seriousness in resolving their boundary disputes. Their territorial issues center on 495 square kilometers of land in north-central Bhutan and 269 square kilometers of land in western Bhutan. Beijing has also claimed 740 square kilometers in the Sakteng Wildlife Sanctuary in eastern Bhutan since 2020. Bhutan and China signed the Guiding Principles on the Settlement of Boundary difficulties in 1988 and the Agreement on the Maintenance of Peace and Tranquility along the Border Areas in 1998 to address their boundary demarcation difficulties. These accords serve as the foundation for Bhutan and China's boundary negotiations and the status quo on the boundary is to be preserved in accordance with Article Three of the agreement. The two parties also agreed not to take any unilateral action on their border whereby which both parties signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on a 'Three-Step Road Map' in October 2021 to expedite their boundary negotiations [6].
During the 25th Round of negotiations, the two sides held extensive discussions on the border negotiations, noting the progress made through a series of Expert Group Meetings since the 24th Round of border talks in 2016 and praised the Expert Group for its efforts. During the talks, the two delegation leaders signed the Cooperation Agreement between the People's Republic of China and the Kingdom of Bhutan on the Responsibilities and Functions of the Joint Technical Team (JTT) on the Delimitation and Demarcation of the China-Bhutan Boundary. During the 13th Expert Group Meeting, the JTT was formed to assist the Expert Group in the implementation of the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on the Three-Step Roadmap [7].
Developments so far:
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated that China and Bhutan have a deep traditional relationship and that the conclusion of boundary discussions and the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two nations completely fulfills Bhutan's long-term and fundamental interests. "The two sides should seize historical opportunities, complete the important process as soon as possible, and designate and develop the friendly relations between the two countries in legal form," he said. Wang Yi also stated that China has traditionally prioritized neighborhood diplomacy in its broader diplomatic efforts and that China respects all countries' sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity [8]. Dorji, for his part, informed Han Zheng that the government of Bhutan places a high value on the development of relations with China and adheres strictly to the one-China principle. Both parties are determined and serious in their desire to demarcate their borders and establish diplomatic relations as soon as possible, according to the state-run Xinhua news agency [9]. China has increased its efforts in recent years to develop full diplomatic ties with Bhutan and to speed up negotiations to resolve the vexing border dispute, which has been exacerbated by Beijing's attempts to claim Doklam despite Thimphu's insistence that the area belongs to it [10].
Concerns for India:
China claims approximately 764 square kilometers in Bhutan's northwestern and central areas. While the disagreement began as part of border talks between India and China, direct talks between China and Bhutan began in 1984. Since then, there have been over 24 rounds of border negotiations and 12 rounds of expert-level meetings, with a focus on the Jakarlung and Pasamlung territories in north Bhutan and the Doklam area in west Bhutan. While India considers the Doklam plateau to be Bhutanese territory, China has asserted that it is an extension of its territory in the Chumbi Valley. China is also accused of constructing multiple villages on Bhutanese land, which Bhutan's Prime Minister, Lotay Tshering, denied in an interview with the Belgian newspaper La Libre. PM Tshering had also stated that the demarcation of the Bhutan-China boundary would be resolved as soon as possible, but that the tri-junction point with India would be dealt with separately, with India included, and that the discussions on the tri-junction could begin only after India and China have settled their border disputes [11].
India’s concerns about these developments stem from Doklam since Chinese control over the territory would endanger India's Siliguri Corridor, which connects the Indian mainland to its Northeast region [12]. These concerns are further exacerbated by the reported Chinese infrastructure buildup alongside the contested border. In this regard, Chatham House is of the view that the new outposts in Bhutan's remote Jakarlung Valley, part of the Beyul Khenpajong region, might become permanent Chinese territory if a border agreement between the two nations is announced shortly. Bhutan is expected to make a huge concession by handing up the land that China has taken in both Jakarlung and the neighboring Menchuma Valley [13].
China’s actions ultimately have a strategic undertone. Chinese presence inching deeper into Bhutan and initial offers of relinquishing control over certain territories have indicated that the negotiations are actually aimed at gaining a strategic edge over India by taking control over Doklam [14]. This argument is further strengthened by observations from Indian analysts that the desire to establish diplomatic ties is aimed at countering India’s direct influence over Bhutan and since the region lacks economic resources, it is indeed aimed at gaining control over Doklam [15].
India’s approach to the developments and the way forward:
While New Delhi was cautiously monitoring the progress of the boundary negotiations following the 25th session of talks, Bhutan's King Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck began a week-long visit to India from 3-10 November [16]. This visit indicates that while Bhutan might see a demarcated border alongside China as desirable, it is not willing to forego its historic ties with India. In this regard, the visit also suggests that Bhutan seeks to keep India in the loop regarding any developments at the border and maintain its confidence in Bhutan. Bhutan has also maintained the position that the tri-junction is a trilateral issue and progress cannot be made in the absence of India.
It should be noted that Bhutan understands its geographical location between two major powers puts it in a complicated position. While a demarcated Bhutan-China border might not be of overwhelming concern, it is the subsequent establishment of diplomatic ties that should be a worry for India. A successfully negotiated boundary and a subsequent establishment of formal diplomatic ties are likely to allow China a significant influence over Bhutan policy-wise which so far has been confined to friendly exchanges. China might seek further wins of taking control over Doklam which will always be strategically desirable for China. Hence, for India, while allowing Bhutan to make its own decisions in the boundary talks, it is imperative to stay in the loop regarding any progress made simultaneously overtly maintaining the status quo of its relations with Bhutan. However, it is the establishment of formal ties that India should actively seek to counterbalance to avoid any conflict of interest from its Bhutanese counterparts when the discussions on the tri-junction happen.
Endnotes:
1. China, Bhutan Vow to Conclude Border Talks Soon; Will Have Implications for India, The Wire, 24 October 2023 https://thewire.in/south-asia/china-bhutan-vow-to-conclude-border-talks-soon-will-have-implications-for-india
2. China asks Bhutan to establish diplomatic ties, settle border issues soon, India Today, 24 October 2023 https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/china-asks-bhutan-to-establish-diplomatic-ties-settle-border-issues-soon-2453231-2023-10-24
3. China, Bhutan Vow to Conclude Border Talks Soon; Will Have Implications for India, The Wire, 24 October 2023 https://thewire.in/south-asia/china-bhutan-vow-to-conclude-border-talks-soon-will-have-implications-for-india
4. Hemant Adlakha, Expert Explains | Bhutan’s King in India as Beijing-Thimpu speed up border talks: Why New Delhi is concerned, Indian Express, 06 November 2023 https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/bhutans-king-in-india-beijing-thimpu-border-talks-9014771/
5. Shi Jiangtao, In ‘big test’ for India, China and Bhutan push to solve border dispute and establish official ties, South China Morning Post, 25 October 2023 https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3239177/big-test-india-china-and-bhutan-push-solve-border-dispute-and-establish-official-ties
6. Amit Ranjan, India and Bhutan-China Boundary Talks, Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore, 15 September 2023 https://www.isas.nus.edu.sg/papers/india-and-bhutan-china-boundary-talks/
7. Joint Press Release on the 25th Round of Boundary Talks between China and Bhutan, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, 24 October 2023 https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/wjdt_665385/wshd_665389/202310/t20231025_11167414.html
8. China aims to establish diplomatic relations with Bhutan soon: FM, Xinhua News, 23 October 2023 https://english.news.cn/20231023/c2070abd8cec441c8e4df6504dcad463/c.html
9. China asks Bhutan to establish diplomatic ties, settle border issues soon, India Today, 24 October 2023 https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/china-asks-bhutan-to-establish-diplomatic-ties-settle-border-issues-soon-2453231-2023-10-24
10. China prods Bhutan to establish diplomatic relations and settle border issues soon to make ties legal, Indian Express, 24 October 2023 https://indianexpress.com/article/world/bhutan-china-diplomatic-ties-border-issues-8997561/
11. China, Bhutan Vow to Conclude Border Talks Soon; Will Have Implications for India, The Wire, 24 October 2023 https://thewire.in/south-asia/china-bhutan-vow-to-conclude-border-talks-soon-will-have-implications-for-india
12. China, Bhutan Vow to Conclude Border Talks Soon; Will Have Implications for India, The Wire, 24 October 2023 https://thewire.in/south-asia/china-bhutan-vow-to-conclude-border-talks-soon-will-have-implications-for-india
13. John Pollock and Damien Symon, China takes more land in Bhutan before expected border deal, Chatham House, 01 December 2023 https://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/the-world-today/2023-12/china-takes-more-land-bhutan-expected-border-deal?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=organic-social&utm_campaign=twt-decjan-2023&utm_content=osint-bhutan
14. Marcus Andreopoulos, China’s Border Talks With Bhutan Are Aimed at India, Foreign Policy, 18 July 2023 https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/07/18/china-bhutan-border-talks-india-dispute-security/
15. Shi Jiangtao, Why Bhutan’s tilt towards China may ‘significantly change’ regional dynamics, South China Morning Post, 29 October 2023 https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3239549/why-bhutans-tilt-towards-china-may-significantly-change-regional-dynamics
16. Anirban Bhaumik, Bhutanese king to visit New Delhi amid Thimphu-Beijing border talks, Deccan Herald, 03 November 2023 https://www.deccanherald.com/india/bhutanese-king-to-visit-new-delhi-amid-thimphu-beijing-border-talks-2754422
Pic Courtsey-Pankaj Jha
(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)