India-Japan-Tajikistan Relations: A Strategic Partnership in the making?
Recently, China claimed half of Tajikistan. This claim wasn’t acceptable and soon, China emerged as an aggressing power for Central Asia and Russia. Thereby, the importance of Tajikistan emerged as a central point of conflict. The question is why Tajikistan is being claimed by China and should this be seen as an opportunity to increase the strategic cooperation among the other power like India and Japan with Tajikistan. India has maintained good relations with Central Asia and has a Central Asia Policy where they are extensively working on energy based projects and connectivity projects. Japan too, has good relations with Central Asian countries since 2004 and has carried out ‘Central Asia plus Japan’ conference yearly. Recently too on 11thAugust 2020, Motegi Toshimitsu, the Foreign Affairs Minister of Japan held the special video Conference of the ‘Central Asia plus Japan’ which depicted Japan’s continued relations. With China’s rise and aggressiveness, India and Japan could well develop stronger strategic relations with Central Asia and especially Tajikistan which could be a way forward for a strategic partnership.
China’s claim on Tajikistan
The Pamir region was claimed by China and this emerged as a major concern for Tajikistan and Russia. Cho Yao Lu, a Chinese historian quoted “the entire Pamir region belonged to China and also said that Tajikistan should now or in the future be returned to Beijing”. This claim would dramatically change and affect the geopolitical and geostrategic balance in Eurasia and also impact the overall positioning of the Central Asian nations. It is also believed that China through this claim is trying to test the waters of Tajikistan, Russia and Central Asia. Also, the other concern is that Dushanbe and Moscow have been watching China’s construction of border posts and airports in the Pamir region and China’s involvement in the gold mining industry, and all this could eventually lead China to completely annex this area[i]. By doing so, China would not only dominate this area of Tajikistan and northern Afghanistan but also connect it to their all-weather friend Pakistan’s country and this link could be further stretched to the Gilghit-Baltistan. Also, China has offered security assistance to Tajikistan in 2010 and in exchange China would be able to gain significant shares of small mountainous country’s raw materials sector and this was welcomed by Dushanbe, Moscow and even West as China’s presence would mean would help contain the Islamist forces of Afghanistan. The fear is of China’s setting up of military bases across Central Asia, and along with this, China has also opened an airport in Taxkorgan (Tashkurgan), which borders Tajikistan and Afghanistan and thus, gives access to people, natural resources and tourism. Also, China has built up three military commissariats along with three military units, four headquarters and a training base for the Tajikistani soldiers. This has made China set their stage in Tajikistan giving it access in the regional dynamics, which also involves Pakistan and Afghanistan[ii]. It is important to understand that apart from control over natural resources, security issues and it has raised an alarm for Russia as Chinese troops have quickly penetrated into that area and Russia and local powers feel that soon the whole region could be a cause of conflict in the future. There is another reason for concern about China’s growing power as China’s expansionist across the world has been alarming and China’s involvement in Central Asia can be seen as another attempt by China to expand.
India and Japan’s Central Asia Policy
The geographical area of Asia also compromises of Central Asia which includes Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan and has a confluence of 4 religious beliefs like Islam, Buddhism, Christianity and Hinduism. India and Central Asia share a long historical linkage through trade and culture. The Partition of 1947 led to a setback in the relations with Central Asia as the direct contact was lost. So, the goods would have to go through Pakistan and Afghanistan which would take much longer through using the sea route to Iran and the overland through Iran ultimately making it economically less viable. The situation changed after India and the Soviet Union signed the Friendship Treaty in 1971 and through this India was able to maintain closer relations through the Central Asian Republics. It was in the 1990’s, with the turn of the century, the importance of Central Asia increasing grew and so did the need to maintain regional stability on the border areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan. It was also during this time that this route was used for supplying the Anti-Taliban coalition, the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan which fought the war against the Taliban Government and had received support from many countries like Iran, Russia, Turkey, India, the USA etc. and the US eventually won the war against Taliban in 2001. This changed the power dynamics as most countries yet again focussed on Central Asia and India worked up its narrative of ‘Look North Policy’.
In 2012, India formulated its ‘Connect Central Asia Policy’ which focussed on an all sectors based approach covering politics, security, economic and cultural connections. The key point of India’s Central Asia policy focused on political cooperation, economic cooperation, strategic cooperation, regional connectivity, information technology (IT), cooperation in education, people-to-people contact, medical cooperation and cooperation in regional groupings and majorly focussed upon 4Cs-Commerce, Connectivity, Consular and Community. Also, Central Asia has been positioned in a very strategically advantageous location with an access point between Europe and Asia, paving a way for immense trade, investment and growth accompanied with an extraordinary region full of natural resources like crude oil, natural gas, cotton, gas, gold, copper, uranium, aluminium and iron. India has been negotiating on TAPI pipeline and has also signed a civil nuclear deal with Kazakhstan. In the realm of national security, India has been able to lay an overseas airbase line in Farkhor, Tajikistan which in itself is a major boost in the relations. Central Asia also neighbours the ‘Golden Crescent’ of opium production in Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan, so Central Asia also becomes a victim of terrorism and illegal arms trade and this spill over effect would also impact India. The Central Asian countries have been instrumental in bidding for India’s permanent membership in the UNSC.
On 13th July 2015, Prime Minister Narendra Damodardas Modi visited 5 Central Asian countries-Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in one single visit, and this was a major highlight in India’s Central Asia policy till date. This had happened particularly when Russia was trying to consolidate its influence in the region after the annexation of Crimea in 2014. China had parallel announced its Silk Road Economic Belt Road Initiative with major focus on developing economic corridors through China, Mongolia, Russia, Central Asia, West Asia, Southeast Asia and South Asia. In 2015, after meeting Prime Minister Modi, Emomali Rahmon, the Tajik President quoted “We share deep historical, cultural and civilizational links. Tajikistan is nearest to India among all Central Asian countries. We are separated by a narrow corridor. Our linguistic links are the closest in Central Asia... We discussed measures to tap the rich potential in trade and commerce and to encourage joint ventures and investments." Prime Minister Modi spoke on connectivity and said that both the countries had agreed to promote the International North South Transport Corridor. This was first agreed upon between India, Iran and Russia in 2000 and later on, 10 more countries signed the project to cut the costs involved in transporting goods to Central Asia by 30 per cent. Also, the route which connects Mumbai to Bandar Abbas port in Iran and from there to another port Bandar-e-Anzali in the north of Iran are essential connecting points, and from there, goods are expected to be transported to Astrakhan in Russia and further onwards to Central Asia. India was looking for a route shorter than the current one and aimed from Suez Canal and the Mediterranean Sea. Also, for India, the North-South Corridor would help bypass Pakistan and yet reach Central Asia faster and in 25 to 30 days. India was also looking for a second route through Iran’s Chabahar Port which would help join another transit corridor linking Iran and Oman with the other Central Asian nations. In the present times, the Chabahar port issue has shifted base with China coming into the picture, thus, India must continue to work with Iran despite the US sanctions on Iran and India must convince America about Iran’s importance in the future strategic dynamics.[iii]
After Tajikistan, Prime Minister Modi visited Kyrgyzstan and opined “both the countries shared interest in combating extremism and terrorism that has become a threat without borders and pacts were done to boost cooperation in the realm of medicine and information technology cooperation." Prime Minister Modi was quoted “We see an important place for Central Asia in India’s future. We can reinforce each other’s economic progress." Both sides agreed that a “Free Trade Agreement between India and EEU (Eurasian Economic Union) will substantially increase our cooperation." For India, Kyrgyzstan is a country with enormous hydel power potential which is of vital importance for them. Turkmenistan was the next stop for Prime Minister Modi’s visit where he pushed for the early moment of the gas pipeline TAPI-Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India and so India’s relationship is of most significance. He further opined “this could transform regional economic cooperation and bring prosperity along the route... We underlined the need to implement the project quickly and both the countries also signed 7 agreements and one focused on defence cooperation.” Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Kazakhstan aimed for the signing of five agreements in sectors of defence, railways and uranium supplies and Prime Minister Modi quoted “We are pleased to have a much larger second contract for purchase of uranium with Kazakhstan and expanding our civil nuclear cooperation." For India, Kazakhstan is one of the biggest economic partners within the region and in order to increase the level of ties, the two nations signed an agreement for Kazakhstan’s nuclear company NAC Kazatomprom to deliver 5,000 tonnes of uranium between the years of 2015 and 2019. The last visit was to Uzbekistan by Prime Minister Modi and together both the countries aimed to improve their connectivity and implementing the contract for supply of uranium from Uzbekistan[iv]. Thereby, this visit was major step forward toward the Central Asian nations by India and paved the way for greater relations for the future.
On 11th August 2020, Motegi Toshimitsu, the Foreign Minister of Japan conducted a special video conference on ‘Central Asia plus Japan’s '[v] along with the other leaders of the Central Asian countries, and the leaders discussed regional cooperation between Central Asia and Japan along with the spread of COVID-19, discussing the upcoming 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations with Japan in 2022, and also discussed the 8th Foreign Ministers’ Meeting. Central Asia and Japan aimed for “more critical for the open, stable and self-sustained development of Central Asia and Japan continues to make its contribution as a catalyst.” It is important to understand that at present the world is still recovering from the Coronavirus Pandemic, and China who is supposed to have started this Wuhan Coronavirus is now holding a water pool party in Wuhan, teasing the world of its recovery from coronavirus which was the epicentre of the virus. Apart from this, China has been actively expanding territorially and China’s latest claim is on the half of Tajikistan, seeing which most countries are worried. Japan has been working and maintaining relations with the Central Asian nations since 2004, but this meeting by the foreign minister is special because it is a virtual meeting, which it is a way to show and extend support to Central Asian countries from Chinese aggression especially now after China’s Tajikistan claim.
India-Japan-Tajikistan Relations: A Strategic Partnership in the making?
It is important to understand that most countries have decided to counter and contain China and India and Japan too can counter China in Central Asia. Central Asia is extremely important for India and Japan for natural resources, which are the needs of the future. Tajikistan is a hub of agricultural produce and Japan is the leader in processed food production. If Tajikistan agrees with Japan in collaboration, then Tajikistan can benefit in a big way through their agricultural products which would help Tajikistan expand its products to the European and Indian markets. Also, since Tajikistan is in enroute toward Europe, if Japan and India want to get direct contact to Europe and its markets. Also, Tajikistan is a landlocked country and surrounded by Russia and Afghanistan, so, it is important for India to maintain good relations with Russia and Afghanistan. Japan should also work with Russia on its territorial issues which would help all of these countries against Chinese aggression. Thereby, there is a possibility of a trilateral agreement between India-Japan- Tajikistan as Tajikistan is rich in different minerals and there is a major scope of exploration, which if Japan invests along with India, can greatly benefit all these three countries. The other thing is that Tajikistan has got high levels of hydropower which should also be harnessed by India and Japan and should also involve Russia as Russia also has good machinery in the exploration of rare earth elements which all these countries should collaborate. India and Japan need rare earth resources which Central Asia can give and that can also economically benefit Tajikistan. Also, Tajikistan faces a major issue on its border area where Chinese labourers are brought and Tajik labourers are devoid of their work. This, too, is a cause of concern for Tajikistan. If rare earth resources are harnessed in Tajikistan, then Tajik labour should be used for the exploration which would help increase employment[vi]. All in all, India-Japan-Tajikistan can lead to a possible strategic partnership.
[i] Paul Goble. 2020.”Beijing Implies Tajikistan’s Pamir Region Should Be Returned to China” published by Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 17 Issue: 112 dated 30 July 2020. URL:https://jamestown.org/program/beijing-implies-tajikistans-pamir-region-should-be-returned-to-china/(Accessed on 18 August 2020)
[ii] “After Ladakh, Nepal & Bhutan, China Now Claims Territory In Tajikistan” published by EurAsian Times Desk dated August 8, 2020. URL:https://eurasiantimes.com/after-ladakh-nepal-bhutan-china-now-claims-territory-in-tajikistan/(Accessed on 18 August 2020)
[iii]Elizabeth Roche. 2015. “Narendra Modi’s visit brings Central Asia back in focus” published in the Livemint dated 15th July 2015. URL:https://www.livemint.com/Politics/7iJD1gvVb9VWUoIiPLHjQK/Narendra-Modis-visit-brings-Central-Asia-back-in-focus.html(Accessed on 19 August 2020)
[iv] Ibid.
[v] MOFA. 2020. “Foreign Ministers’ Special Video Conference of the “Central Asia plus Japan Dialogue” dated 11th August 2020. URL:https://www.mofa.go.jp/press/release/press6e_000233.html(Accessed on 18 August 2020)
[vi] I would also like to thank and extend my gratitude to Dr Pankaj K Jha for his inputs and helping me brainstorm.
Pic Courtesy-Thomas Lipke at unsplash.com
(The author is research assistant with Centre for Land Warfare Studies(CLAWS). The views expressed are personal.)
