India- ASEAN Plan of Action (2021-2025):A vision and futuristic commitment
On November 4th 2019, Thailand passed the baton of ASEAN leadership to Vietnam. Vietnam officially became part of the ASEAN community in 1995 and became its 7th member. It remained outside the grouping during the Cold War era, and the ASEAN countries looked upon it as a security threat mainly after it invaded Cambodia in 1978. But later due to Chinese invasion of Vietnam and the international sanctions which were being slapped on Vietnam, it withdrew from Cambodia and initiated a series of domestic reforms which helped it to integrate again with the outside world. From a centralised economy, Vietnam moved towards a mixed-economy supported by ‘five-year plans’ which helped it to grow rapidly and foster its exports. Vietnam heavily relies on the FDIs to fuel its expanding economy.
This is the third time when Vietnam has assumed the ASEAN leadership. Previously it led the regional grouping in 1998 and 2010. The most interesting thing about Vietnam heading the ASEAN is its timing. The year 2020 marks the 25th anniversary of Vietnam’s integration with the ASEAN. It also coincides with the fact that the year 2020 is also the median mark for the ‘ASEAN Community Vision 2025’. Moreover, Vietnam, simultaneously, holds the non-permanent membership of the UN’s Security Council. All the three events have already made Vietnam an important player in world politics especially at a time when the world is facing a serious threat from the Covid-19 pandemic.
As per the ASEAN-Vietnam 2020 website, Vietnam aims to work on the ‘agreement and cooperation plan of ASEAN’ and move forward towards the goals which were set in 2019 under the leadership of Thailand. Vietnam plans to wrap up the negotiations for ASEAN Trade in Services Agreement (ATISA), which will boost the economic connectivity in terms of investment and services among the ASEAN nations. It also seeks to work towards the completion of the negotiations regarding the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Promoting the vision of ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific and the principle of ASEAN centrality is on the bucket list of Vietnam. Moreover, it seeks to promote the negotiations between ASEAN and China to complete the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea which aims at establishing rules-based order in the disputed waters of the South China Sea. Some other big-ticket issues like reviewing the ASEAN Community Vision and the ASEAN Charter and preparing a new ASEAN Vision post-2025 are also on the agenda of Vietnam.
‘ASEAN Community Vision (ACV)’ 2025 was launched in 2015 and is fragmented into three parts i.e. ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), the ASEAN Political-Security Community (APSC), and ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community (ASCC) Blueprints 2025. The Mid Term Review (MTR) of the ASEAN Community Vision 2025 is in the progress and aims to assess the performance of ASEAN nations in implementing the targets of the ACV 2025. A review of the implementation of the ASEAN Charter is also in the progress and a Scoping Report on the review will be prepared soon. The MTR and the Scoping Report will aid in the development of the “ASEAN Community Post-2025 Vision.” ASEAN announced that 96 per cent of the first five years goals laid out in the APSC Blueprint 2025 have been completed.
Vietnam has assumed the Chairmanship of ASEAN at a time when the whole world has been ravaged by the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic has negatively affected the socio-economic equilibrium which in turn has a multidimensional impact on the supply chain, connectivity, jobs and has led to the slowing down of the world economy. The COVID-19 pandemic is going to be watershed moment in world history. So, mitigating the disrupted supply chains, job losses, demand shocks and geo-political-cum-economic costs associated with the pandemic would be a major priority for ASEAN under the leadership of Vietnam. ASEAN has introduced and set up the COVID-19 ASEAN Response Fund, medical supplies warehouses and SOPs to ramp up its efforts to “prevent, detect, control and respond” against the COVID-19. ASEAN also seeks to deepen the cooperation among the partners and with the other countries in the research and development of the vaccine for the COVID-19. Moreover, collective plans have been laid out to boost the education, sports, transport, labour, tourism, social welfare, health and sports sectors which have been affected by the pandemic.
ASEAN has reaffirmed its commitment to deepen the integration among ASEAN countries.
Till now, twenty-two out of twenty-six actions (86.4 per cent) of the “IAI Work Plan III (2016-2020)” has been implemented. This plan was formalised to assist Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam and Myanmar in meeting the commitments and targets to realise the ASEAN Community goals. Goals such as ASEAN Connectivity, Sub-regional cooperation among the ASEAN states and ASEAN Smart Cities Network were also echoed in different meetings of ASEAN countries. Several non-traditional security threats like terrorism, violent extremism and radicalisation; illicit drugs; human trafficking; border management and cybersecurity have also been addressed by ASEAN through different initiatives which are being implemented through various specialised agencies. ASEAN considers Peace and Security as an important pillar of their policy towards the Indo-Pacific. It seeks to realise the true potential of the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation. ASEAN is working towards formulating an ASEAN Extradition Treaty. It wants to work towards the values enshrined in the ASEAN Charter and the Southeast Asia Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone (SEANWFZ) Treaty to maintain the nuclear-free status of South East Asia. In various meetings, the idea of maritime cooperation among various countries was echoed as the most important point in ensuring a peaceful Southeast Asian region. In the joint communique of the 53rd ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting it is mentioned:
“We encourage ASEAN Member States to intensify cooperation in promoting maritime security, safety and freedom of navigation and overflight, addressing transnational crime at sea, creating conducive environment for peaceful settlement of disputes, ensuring marine sustainability, providing humanitarian assistance to persons and vessels in distress at sea, combating Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated (IUU) fishing, promoting maritime connectivity and commerce, strengthening marine scientific research, in accordance with international law, including the 1982 UNCLOS, the relevant Standards and Recommended Practices (SARPs) of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), and the relevant instruments and conventions of the International Maritime Organization (IMO).”
Economic agenda of ASEAN under the leadership of Vietnam includes the progress on Vietnam’s Priority Economic Deliverables; fourth Industrial Revolution and digital connectivity; wildlife trafficking, agriculture, energy and fisheries. Under the agenda, ASEAN nations seek to enhance cooperation in the above-mentioned fields to achieve deeper integration of the partner economies. ASEAN’s socio-cultural agenda focuses on different points which include gender mainstreaming, culture, Human Resource Development, Social Welfare Development, Information, Youth Development, Health Development, Civil Service and Labour and Migrant Workers. Under its environmental agenda, ASEAN plans to continue its efforts to address climate action, marine debris and transboundary haze pollution, and to conserve biodiversity.
ASEAN laid its agenda for Disaster Management and Emergency Response by emphasising on a bigger role of ASEAN in ensuring humanitarian assistance to Rohingyas in the Rakhine state and to move forward with the repatriation process. It announced its support to the “Arrangement on Return of Displaced Persons from Rakhine State” which was signed between the governments of Myanmar and Bangladesh in 2017. It also reiterated its support to the renewed MoU between Myanmar, United Nations Development Programme and United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.
In order to promote the reinforcement of rules-based, transparent, open, inclusive and multilateral architecture in the region, it talks about the cooperation among the partner countries, with the regional stakeholders, and other regional and International organisation. It also expressed its intention to use platforms like East Asia Summit, ASEAN Plus Three, ASEAN-US Summit, ASEAN-EU Summit and ASEAN Regional Forum. To reduce the risk of accidents, tensions, miscalculations and misunderstandings, it seeks to undertake preventive and confidence-building measures. In the wake of land reclamation activities in the South China Sea which have increased the tensions and threatened peace, stability and security in the region, it reaffirmed its support to resolve disputes in an amicable manner under the UNCLOS, 1982. It is in favour of the resolution of disputes and conflicts in the Korean Peninsula in a peaceful manner. It reiterated its support to the rights of Palestinian people and the two states solution.
Evaluating India-ASEAN Plan of Action
In September 2020, India and ASEAN reviewed their strategic partnership under the 2016-2020 India-ASEAN Plan of Action. They also rolled out a new action plan to further boost the strategic ties between ASEAN and India. India and ASEAN are cooperating in a number of domains and the new plan of action resonates with the previously set targets and priorities set by them.
New Delhi and ASEAN capitals understand the importance of their partnership and will work together to strengthen political and security cooperation. India reaffirmed its support to the idea of ASEAN Centrality in the region, the EAS Declaration on the Principles for Mutually Beneficial Relations (Bali Principles), the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia. Both the parties seek to work towards maritime security, disaster relief, defence dialogues, preventing transnational crimes, preventive diplomacy, counter-terrorism, security, non-proliferation, cybersecurity, peacekeeping operations, disarmament and humanitarian mine action in the region which has seen a lot of volatility, quite lately. India and ASEAN call out for peaceful resolution of territorial disputes in the South China Sea. From the past decade, China has been engaging in territorial reclamation activities which are being perceived by many ASEAN countries as an encroachment in their territorial sovereignty. Both parties call out for multilateral world order and to resolve all the disputes in accordance with the principles laid out in UNCLOS, 1982.
India and ASEAN indulged in bilateral trade of USD 86.92 billion in 2019-2020. Trade and economic cooperation between India and ASEAN are gradually on an elevating path. One-fourth of global population i.e. 1.85 billion people belong to India and ASEAN combined. With their combined GDP pegged at over USD 3.8 trillion, India and ASEAN together are the new powerhouses of the global economy. Both India and ASEAN plan to work towards the integration of their economies in a more profound and sustainable way. To facilitate capacity building, cross border investment flows between India and ASEAN, technical cooperation they seek to make the ASEAN-India Free Trade Area more efficient. They call for the ratification of the ASEAN-India Investment Agreement by all parties and implementation of the ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement.
India and ASEAN pledged to cooperate in wide arrays of areas like clean and renewable energy; transport; food, forestry and agriculture; ICT; tourism; science, technology and innovation; disaster management and emergency response; environment, climate change and biodiversity; public health; culture, youth, education and people to people exchange; connectivity and sustainable development.
Future of India-ASEAN ties
In previous years, Indo-Pacific has gained prominence in world politics. The region holds an abundance of natural and human resources and thus has the potential to provide the required propellant to boost the global economy which has seen a decline due to the Covid-19 and the trade war between the US and China. The region has become a new Coliseum where the major powers of the worlds are deploying their diplomatic and strategic tools to maintain the multipolarity of the region in the wake of growing revisionist policies of China. Land reclamation activities in the South China Sea, the border dispute between China and India, the nuclear threat in the Korean peninsula and the presence of terrorist groups pose a direct threat to the peace and stability of the region.
India is a natural stakeholder in the region with a large coastline in the Indian Ocean and maintains cordial relations with most of the Indo-Pacific nations. ASEAN is a very important partner for India to ensure the peace and rules-based order in the region. No doubt, India has tried to deepen the engagement with the ASEAN by introducing several policy changes and launching new initiatives like the Act East Policy but the progress has not been satisfactory in various domains like economic cooperation and integration. It is to be noted here that the bilateral trade between China and ASEAN in the first half of the year 2020 stands at USD 299 billion. It is a humongous chunk as compared to the India-ASEAN bilateral trade in the year 2019-20 which stands at USD 86.92 billion. It has been seen that India’s interest in the ASEAN as a multilateral forum is non-satisfactory and it considers bilateral partnerships as better tools to engage with Southeast Asia. From various policies of the Indian government, it can be analysed that New Delhi is placing its bet on Myanmar and Thailand to create a bridge between India and the Southeast Asian region. There is an urgent need to engage with the ASEAN as a whole rather than pursuing bilateral relationships policy. Several initiatives like ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement are still in the box and should be formulated and implemented within a time-based manner. Moreover, India needs to focus on time-based delivery of the projects like India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway which will be India’s gateway to ASEAN.
Both India and ASEAN countries are involved in the territorial disputes with China which make them natural partners. A peaceful and open Indo-Pacific is necessary for both the partners to pursue their respective goals. India should engage with the ASEAN in a more profound way through military exercises, maritime patrols and logistics support mechanisms to deepen the defence ties with Southeast Asia. India has the opportunity to interact with the ASEAN nation through Quad+ initiative which will boost up the measures to ensure maritime freedom and better economic prospects. There has been a policy shift from India’s side and it is moving away from SAARC to BIMSTEC. India should engage in a more robust way through the BIMSTEC to play a major role to connect the South Asian and Southeast Asian geography.
ASEAN has stated its vision to play a major role in the upcoming Industrial Revolution 4.0. India has a huge potential to steer the upcoming watershed moment because of its demographic advantage. Coordinating with ASEAN in this field will surely bolster India’s attempts for a successful transition towards the new era. India can work together with ASEAN in the domains of digital connectivity, AI, machine learning, quantum computing, cloud computing and IT services. Cybersecurity is a growing concern among all the nations especially due to growing and repeated cyber-attacks in the wake of Covid-19 vaccine research and development. India and ASEAN can collaborate in this field to ensure better security and vigilance measures to tackle these attacks in an efficient way. India and the ASEAN nations have historical ties which date back to ancient times. This cultural interconnectedness between India and Southeast Asia provides India with a box full of opportunities to deepen ties between the two regions.
Notes
1. https://asean.org/storage/2020/09/FINAL-Joint-Communique-of-the-53rd-AMM.pdf
2. https://vovworld.vn/en-US/current-affairs/vietnams-asean-chairmanship-2020-active-and-creative-900160.vov
3. https://www.asean2020.vn/web/asean_en/thong-diep-cua-thu-tuong
4. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/ChanakyaCode/china-and-code-of-conduct-for-south-china-sea/
5. https://thediplomat.com/2019/11/how-will-vietnams-asean-chairmanship-play-out-in-2020/
6. https://vietnam.vnanet.vn/english/vietnams-efforts-and-initiatives-as-asean-chair-2020-challenges-of-and-response-to-the-covid-19-pandemic/446014.html
7. https://vietnamlawmagazine.vn/vietnam-shows-proactive-responsible-chairmanship-of-asean-opinions-27243.html
8. https://commerce.gov.in/InnerContent.aspx?Id=74
9. https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/greater-cooperation-india-asean-adopt-plan-of-action-for-2021-25/story-NPLjEa3Mcj8JPxtC671CQI.html
10. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/india-asean-review-strategic-ties-adopt-new-five-year-plan-of-action/articleshow/78078718.cms
11. https://asiatimes.com/2020/07/chinas-trade-with-asean-up-5-6-in-1h/
12. https://www.deccanchronicle.com/nation/current-affairs/061020/steps-on-to-complete-india-myanmar-thailand-trilateral-highways.html
13. https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2020/10/20/india-asean-relations-under-vietnam-chairmanship-of-asean/
14. https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/the-future-of-india-asean-partnership/
Pic Courtesy-asean.org
(The views expressed are personal.)
