Forthcoming Russian Elections in 2024

Putin’s Regime:

Vladimir Putin, who was appointed president by Boris Yeltsin on 31 December 1999, has already served as Russia's president for the longest period since Josef Stalin, surpassing even Leonid Brezhnev's tenure from 1964 to 1982. The 1993 Russian constitution, which was roughly modeled after France's 1958 constitution, was seen by some Western observers as a step toward democracy in post-Soviet Russia. Originally, it stated that a president could serve two four-year terms in succession, however, the 2008 amendments extended the presidential term to six years, while the 2020 amendments effectively permitted Putin to run for two additional six-year terms beyond 2024 [2]. With the Kremlin exercising absolute control over the country's political system, blocked independent media and opposition leaders either in exile or in prison, the results are likely to bring Putin back to power till 2030 [3].

Voters and Candidates:

The Russian Central Election Commission (CEC) declared in February that around 112.3 million people in Russia and areas in Ukraine under Russian occupation, alongside the 1.9 million overseas Russians are eligible to vote. The facility of online voting will be made available in 27 Russian regions and Crimea, marking the first presidential election in Russia to do so. Even though Russian forces do not have full control over them, the vote will also be held in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, the four regions annexed following the full-scale invasion in 2022. While Kyiv and Western nations have condemned conducting the poll there, early voting has already begun in some areas and will be gradually implemented in others [4].

Alongside Vladimir Putin running as an independent, the other candidates allowed to contest and who belong to parties said to be on friendly terms with Putin are Nikolai Kharitonov from the Communist Party, Leonid Slutsky from the nationalistic Liberal Democratic Party, and Vladislav Davankov from the New People Party. These candidates pose no real political challenge to Putin as, firstly, because the previous elections have demonstrated that such candidates are unlikely to receive enough votes (In the 2018 presidential election, the Communist Party's runner-up received 11.8% of the vote, compared to Putin's 76.7%.) and secondly, they are already in support of the existing Kremlin policies including the invasion of Ukraine [5].

No Strong Opposition and Continued Dissent:

The opinion at large has been that Putin is not likely to see any real competition in this election. More recently, Boris Nadezhdin, a popular anti-war candidate was banned from contesting the elections upon a Supreme Court ruling on 4 March. The Russian electoral law obliges a person to attain and submit 100,000 signatures for them to qualify for the presidential candidacy. In late February, the CEC declared that out of the 105,000 signatures submitted by Nadezhdin, 9000 were invalid citing discrepancies like names of many deceased people in the list [6][7]. Previously, a former TV journalist and another candidate who had voiced her opinion against the war was barred from contesting elections. The Supreme Court upheld the CEC members' unanimous decision to deny Yekaterina Duntsova's candidacy, noting "numerous violations" in the papers she provided in favor of her bid [8]. This essentially removes all vocal critics of the invasion of Ukraine in Russia.

Furthermore, Alexei Navalny who was popularly perceived to be a real political challenge to Putin is now deceased. His anti-Kremlin campaign efforts had already gotten insignificant after the invasion of Ukraine, the crackdown on anti-war demonstrations, and his supporters fleeing the country. Here, it should be noted that despite his widespread support, popularity outside Russia, and bid to contest elections, Navalny never actually came closer to toppling the government and his death has had a demoralizing effect among dissidents [9]. In this light, Navalny’s widow Yulia Navalnaya made a call for protest on election day against Putin which is being dubbed as “Midday against Putin”. The call has asked protestors to gather at polling stations, after which they can vote for any candidate other than Putin, spoil or write Navalny on their ballots [10]. After Navalny’s passing, there hardly remains any strong opposition against Putin but the political dissent is likely to continue through the network of his supporters under the banner “The Anti-Corruption Foundation” and other activists like Mikhail Khodorkovsky, Vladimir Kara-Murza and Ilya Yashin [11].

Putin’s Manufactured Incumbency:

Russian elections are notoriously unfair and are largely seen as a formality that showcases Putin’s extended position as the ruler of the state and victory in this election would mark the first of the two additional terms granted to him as the 2021 amendments. Putin’s incumbency can be attributed to the tightly controlled and preferential media that essentially runs Putin’s propaganda. At present, all media outlets in Russia remain under strict state control. This practice of suppressing all modes of independent journalism has continued since his commencement as the authoritarian leader and has been intensified since the invasion of Ukraine with new legislation in place that criminalizes reporting news that undermines the Russian military or “spreading false information” with 15 years of jail time. This way Putin is able to put the Russian people in an information bubble making sure that the public sentiment remains in his favor [12] [13].

Russian observers are of the view that these elections are a way through which Putin seeks to legitimize the decision to invade Ukraine and would portray that day-to-day life for Russian people is normal despite an ongoing war and that he is still in complete control of his regime [14]. To claim a mandate to exercise power, an authoritarian leader like Putin must demonstrate popular support from the masses. While Putin retains complete authority over Russia, elections are a vital instrument to demonstrate his claim to legitimacy to the Russian people. The three candidates in opposition display different viewpoints and internal policies, but collectively they contribute to Putin's goal of tightening his grip on Russia during his coming presidential term. This is also evident from looking at the candidates who have been rejected by the CEC.  Choosing to run as an independent candidate, despite the full support of his 'United Russia' party, sends a clear message to the people that, while Putin functions within the political system, he is above it [15].

Significance of this Russian Election:

The task ahead for Putin is to persuade a large public turnout at polling stations to showcase popular support in an essentially uncontested election. If a large public turnout occurs, Putin will emerge victorious in an electoral cycle while Russia is in a major war which will be used to showcase a sense of national unity behind the ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine. Beyond the war efforts in Ukraine, Putin’s state address from 29 February included the announcement of five national-level projects encompassing health, education, family, big data, and technology. This indicates that under the confident demeanor of Putin, there was an awareness of the perpetual challenges that Russia faces and the lack of adequate policies to address them [16]. This election is particularly significant in the sense that while Putin has been somewhat successful in controlling the narrative around the war in Ukraine, he is still to project the war as something that will once again bring him public support.

When Putin was being nominated for reelection, a particular faction in the Kremlin was leaning towards progress and development on the domestic policy front and formulating a vision on a nonmilitary agenda and wanted Putin to announce his decision to contest accordingly. Instead, the announcement came at a military ceremony in response to a staged question to Putin about reelections from a former military commander. Putin’s decision to make this announcement with a military adage propounds a sacrificial and nationalistic attitude among voters which Putin most likely wants to mobilize [17]. 

Although Russia has a politically authoritarian environment, Russian voters are an “overlooked factor in elections.” Despite no political issues to contest upon fairly, the focus of the regime remains on ensuring a sufficient public turnout. In a way, the Kremlin takes account of the electorate to get people to come to the polling stations in order to attain the desired turnout. Here, the elections essentially function as a ritual for the individuals in favor of whom the elections are rigged but a distinction does exist between convinced voters and those compelled to take part [18]. In the past few months in Russia, the opposition has been silent, the economy has performed better and on the war front, the Russian military has successfully countered a Ukrainian offensive. All of this collectively demonstrates Putin’s lasting power over Russia [19].

Analysts are of the view that Putin's decision to declare his candidacy in front of Russian soldiers reflects his attempt to link the conflict to his reelection campaign. Andrei Kolesnikov from the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Moscow said that “The elections are meant to legitimize his decision to invade Ukraine," and that Putin "wants to demonstrate that the majority of Russians support the war " [20]. Abbas Gallyamov, a political analyst and formerly a speechwriter to Putin, described the vote as a dichotomic choice of ‘Are you for or against Putin?'" and stated that it will be a "referendum on the issue of the war, and a vote for Putin will become a vote for the war." Alexei Navalny made a similar remark from behind bars. However, with no viable alternatives to Putin on the ballot, the opposition sees the election as a scarce opportunity to express discontent with him [21].

Endnotes:

1.     Defrak, Russian Elections 2024 Date, Candidate, Polls, Result, Winning Prediction, GMRIT, 10 March 2024 https://www.gmrit.org/russian-elections-date/

2.     The Russian presidential election: The who, what and when, Reuters, 08 December 2023 https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-putin-run-again-president-2024-2023-12-08/

3.     Katie Marie Davis and Dasha Litvinova, What to know about Russia’s presidential election, set to give Putin another six-year term, Associated Press, 10 March 2024 https://apnews.com/article/russia-presidential-election-2024-what-to-know-04a363dd56d4b3f15d3048ed8585fe55

4.     Katie Marie Davis and Dasha Litvinova, What to know about Russia’s presidential election, set to give Putin another six-year term, ABC News, 29 February 2024 https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/russias-2024-presidential-election-107647823

5.     Katie Marie Davis and Dasha Litvinova, What to know about Russia’s presidential election, set to give Putin another six-year term, Associated Press, 10 March 2024 https://apnews.com/article/russia-presidential-election-2024-what-to-know-04a363dd56d4b3f15d3048ed8585fe55

6.     Nishtha Badgamia, Russian presidential election: Top court upholds decision barring anti-war candidate; Nadezhdin vows to appeal, WION, 05 March 2024 https://www.wionews.com/world/russian-presidential-election-top-court-upholds-decision-barring-anti-war-candidate-nadezhdin-vows-to-appeal-696609

7.     Russia's Supreme Court upholds ban on anti-war presidential candidate, France 24, 21 February 2024 https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240221-russia-s-supreme-court-rejects-election-ban-appeal-by-anti-war-presidential-candidate

8.     Anti-war candidate says top Russian court backs barring her from challenging Putin, Reuters, 27 December 2023 https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/top-russian-court-backs-move-bar-anti-war-politician-running-against-putin-2023-12-27/

9.     Alexander Titov, Alexei Navalny's Death Spells the End of Politics in Russia, The Wire, 17 February 2024 https://thewire.in/world/alexei-navalnys-death-spells-the-end-of-politics-in-russia

10. Laura Gozzi, Alexei Navalny: Widow urges Russians to protest on election day, BBC News, 07 March 2024 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68479832

11. Miranda Nazzaro, After Navalny death, who are the remaining Russia dissidents?, The Hill, 19 February 2024 https://thehill.com/policy/international/4477116-after-navalny-death-who-are-the-remaining-russia-dissidents/

12. Rob Picheta, Russia’s presidential election is nearing. We already know who the winner will be, Milken Institute, 08 March 2024 https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/25/europe/russia-presidential-election-explainer-putin-intl/index.html

13. Emma Burrows, On Russian TV ahead of the election, there's only one program: Putin's, ABC News, 11 March 2024 https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/russian-tv-ahead-election-program-putins-107999692

14. Pjotr Sauer, Vladimir Putin will use election to show war-weary Russia he’s still calling the shots, The Guardian, 03 January 2024 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/03/vladimir-putin-will-use-election-to-show-war-weary-russia-hes-still-calling-the-shots

15. Callum Fraser, Putin’s Grand Plan for Russia’s 2024 Elections, Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies, 29 January 2024 https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/putins-grand-plan-russias-2024-elections

16. Thomas Graham, Why Russia’s Election Matters to Putin, Council on Foreign Relations, 07 March 2024 https://www.cfr.org/expert-brief/why-russias-election-matters-putin

17. Tatiana Stanovaya, As Election Looms, Putin Is in a Wartime Trap of His Own Making, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 15 January 2024 https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/91383

18. Ekaterina Kurbangaleeva, Why Russia Keeps Holding Elections, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 22 September 2023 https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/90619

19. Vladimir Putin Seeks 5th Presidential Term, And A New World Order, NDTV, 08 December 2023 https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/vladimir-putin-seeks-5th-presidential-term-and-a-new-world-order-4646828

20. Vladimir Putin to run for Russian president again in March 2024, The Guardian, 08 December 2023 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/08/vladimir-putin-to-run-for-russian-president-again-in-march-2024

21. Russia presidential election 2024: Is Putin poised for another six-year term? All you need to know, Live Mint, 10 March 2024 https://www.livemint.com/news/world/russian-election-2024-president-vladimir-putin-ukraine-war-communist-liberal-democratic-party-alexei-navalny-death-news-11710052785341.html

Pic Courtsey-RT today

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