Fissures in Japan-US Ties as Japan halts Missile Defence System Deployment

In the Indo-Pacific region, despite the smooth sailing of the security alliance relationships with two important Asian allies – Japan and South Korea – for the past seven decades, Trump is needlessly needling on issues that threaten to undo the advantages both sides have enjoyed so far. Under compelling circumstance amid the current pandemic and overlooking the economic pressures faced by friendly countries, including alliance partners who are forced to allocate a substantial amount of money by way of stimulus measures to rescue the countries’ economies as well as providing financial relief, Trump is miffed when Japan on 15 June abruptly suspended to halt plans to deploy the US-made costly land-based Aegis Ashore missile defense system.[1] Trump might not take this sportily as US' plans for its ally’s defence against external threats are suddenly suspended.[2]  

Despite the continuous threat from neighbouring North Korea and China over a series of missile firings over Japan by the former, and territorial aggrandisement by the latter, Trump overlooks Japan’s domestic constraints/compulsions and the fact that deployment of the two land-based US missile defense systems is extremely unpopular, despite that such a decision could probably bolster Japan’s capability against threats from North Korea. It is a different matter that Japan decided to “stop the deployment process” of the missile defense system when it was found that the safety of one of the planned host communities “could not be ensured without a hardware redesign that would be too time consuming and costly”.[3] 

It may be recalled that the Japanese Cabinet decided to take the decision in 2017 to add the two missile defense systems to bolster the country’s defenses, in order to safeguard the country’s security in the wake of North Korean missiles flying over the southern island of Hokkaido. It consisted of Aegis-equipped destroyers at sea and Patriot missiles on land. The objective behind choosing this was that the two units, one stationed at Yamaguchi-ken in the south and another at Japan Ground Self-Defense Force, or JGSDF bases at Akita-ken in the north of Japan’s main island of Honshu, could cover the entire Japan, providing security against potential missile attacks from North Korea.

Based on basic preparedness, Japan negotiated with the US, and in January 2019, the US agreed to sell two Aegis Ashore missile defense systems and other military equipment to Japan at an estimated cost of $2.15 billion (about 231 billion yen). This cost was escalated to almost double to the amount negotiated by June 2020. At that time, the plan was to deploy the two units in Yamaguchi and Akita prefectures, planned to be completed after the fiscal starting April 2025. The objective was to cover the whole of Japan by these missile defense systems. The perceived threat from North Korea and China hastened this process.   

The reason behind reconsidering the decision to deploy the two Aegis Ashore units stemmed from questions raised about the selection of one of the sites and escalation of costs that climbed to 450 billion yen ($4.1 billion). This amount was estimated if the two units were to remain in operation for 30-years and was inclusive of maintenance costs. Safety concerns and local opposition further influenced the government’s thinking.

Being an island nation with no officially designated military, Japan’s security vulnerability is always a bother for the Japanese government. Despite remaining under the American security umbrella, it has maintained limited capability and thus responsibility to be ready with defense preparedness, if the nation’s security comes under threat. The North Korean threat was the trigger this time around. Though Japan already operates seven such destroyers and is building another, these are no match to Aegis Ashore radars than what are used on the ships. “The land-based systems also reduce the demands placed on the ships and their crews by the missile defense mission.”[4] Deploying the system would have helped Abe accomplish his two goals – enhancing Tokyo’s ability to track and intercept North Korean missiles and addressing Trump’s complaints about Japan not doing enough for regional security.   

The objective behind this move was to further enhance the country’s safety net though Japan had already upgraded the deployment of an upgraded Patriot Missile Segment Enhancement, or MSE, interceptors at four different locations throughout the country in early June 2020. These four locations were Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) based at Narashino, Mamamatsu, Ashiya and Tsuiki, where missile batteries could be used against aircraft or short-range ballistic missiles.[5]

Abe has long aspired to enact constitutional revision, particularly the war-renouncing clause in Article 9. This has remained a touchy issue in Japan and strong critics to this proposal and the difficult procedure to achieve this has frustrated Abe enough to abandon his aim. Technically the Self-Defense-Forces are still not a full-fledged Army, though it has acquired most of the capabilities that a country’s Army possesses. This has been possible because Abe has reinterpreted the war-renouncing clause, which has served some of his purposes without amending/removing Article 9. Critics have opposed in every opportunity Abe’s attempts to tamper with the clause and even this time they saw the proposed two units planned to be deployed to intercept long-range North Korean missiles, arguing that the units’ main aim was to defend Guam or Hawaii, rather than strengthen the SDF’s task to defend Japan. They also saw fear in possibly interfering with the war-renouncing constitution.

Though the Defense Minister Taro Kono defended that the amount of 180 billion yen ($1.7 billion) that Japan had already spent for the systems as not a waste as the units were compatible with those used on Japanese destroyers, the argument remained unconvincing for the critics.

Explaining the technical aspect[6], Kono said that the two units planned to have been deployed were to ensure that the rocket boosters of the interceptor missiles that are used to accelerate the missile to supersonic speeds following their launch, were to fall on the designated areas following separations from the missiles. Kono further observed: “Attempts to modify the software on the SM-3 Block IIA missiles to ensure correct booster separation so as to not put civilian lives and infrastructure at risk have not been successful so far, with modifications to the missile hardware likely to be needed.”[7] The two units have the ability to intercept both short and intermediate-range ballistic missiles, mainly targeted to firing by North Korea. Kono, however, gave no indication that the plan has been kept in the backburner or permanently shelved.   

The government’s argument was weak as safety guarantee to the people in Yamaguchi remained unaddressed. The people of Yamaguchi expressed concern that the area would have become a high-priority target if any armed conflict breaks out in its vicinity.[8] It may be remembered that the government was constrained in similar situation in Okinawa not long ago when the local opposition forced the government to relocate bases from areas close to houses of peoples. This time, the opposition from the peoples and local government was because they feared the radiation from the system’s Lockheed Martin Long Range Discrimination Radar.

It may also be recalled that when North Korea continued to fire series of long-range missiles three years ago, posing a threat to the neighbouring South Korea, then South Korean government led by hardliner President Park Gyun-hye negotiated with the US to deploy the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) to deter the North Korean threat. That time, Beijing strongly protested as it perceived as threat to its own security. Japan did not go for the same missile defense system as it found Aegis Ashore cheaper in terms of cost and versatility.[9]  

The Japanese decision to halt the deployment of the two units might not please President Trump. With the US economy already on the red, and economic ties with China under considerable strain on the issue of correcting trade imbalance and unethical trade practices, Trump could have factored to have some economic mileage in this election year, the Japanese decision could pose another challenge to deal with its alliance partner in East Asia. This adds to the existing cost-sharing burden issue that has been troubling between Japan-US ties. Seen differently, the decision could also mean some relief for Abe as considerable amount of money is saved as the country’s economy plagued by the pandemic needed to be reset. The US successfully negotiated similar land-fixed Aegis Ashore deployment with Romania and Poland. While the site in already operational in Romania, the other in Poland, right on Russia’s doorstep is under construction. Japan would have been the third to host the system.

Besides the likely opposition from China, even Russia considered the Aegis deployment in Poland an immediate threat to its security. Though defensive in nature, the system can be converted easily to fire offensive munitions like Tomahawk cruise missiles. No wonder Russia too worried over Japan’s deployment plans as the same could have “adversely affected the Russian strategic containment arsenal”. 

That has been frozen for the time being. It is uncertain if Japan’s decision would remain unchanged if the security situation in its neighbourhood dramatically deteriorates either because North Korean threat escalates or China’s belligerence increases, posing Abe with fresh challenges to craft new policies to cope with these.

The Japanese decision to halt deployment of the two units could again reignite the festering security burden-sharing issue. Though the free-ride concept has been there for quite some time, domestic opinion in Japan is sharply divided. Given the current pandemic and stress on the economy, Abe might not be under any compelling reason to yield space to Trump’s pressure to reverse the decision. If Trump was planning to use this deployment as a leverage to make Japan share greater regional security role, that is unlikely to happen. Trump’s own home situation is now quite vulnerable and the possibility to relook the alliance relationship with Japan may not be a priority, as was the case with his dealing with the TPP or WHO, for example. Trump could continue to build pressure on Japan if those fetch some economic rent for the US but Japan is unlikely to yield to all of his demands.

(Pic courtesy- Maciej Ruminkiewicz at unsplash.com)

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Prof. Rajaram Panda is Lok Sabha Research Fellow, Parliament of India and Member, Governing Council of Indian Council of World Affairs, and Centre for Security and Strategic Studies, both in New Delhi. He was also Senior Fellow at IDSA and ICCR Chair Professor at Reitaku University, Japan, E-mail: rajaram.panda@gmail.com. The views expressed are personal.

Notes

[1] “Japan to Scrap Costly Land-Based US Missile Defense System”, 15 June 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2020/06/15/world/asia/ap-as-japan-us-missile-defense-.html

[2] Mike Yeo, “Japan suspends Aegis Ashore deployment, pointing to cost and technical issues”, 15 June 2020, https://news.yahoo.com/japan-suspends-aegis-ashore-deployment-135204116.html

[3] N.1.

[4] N. 2.

[5] Ibid.

[6] “Japan halts plan to deploy Aegis Ashore missile defense system”, The Japan Times, 15 June 2020, https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/06/15/national/japan-halt-deploy-aegis-ashore-missile-defense-system/#.Xud1aEUzZPZ

[7] N. 2.

[8] “Japan halts plans to deploy Aegis Ashore missile shield, citing costs & technical issues”, 15 June 2020, https://www.rt.com/news/491844-japan-halts-aegis-ashore-deployment/

[9] N. 2.