Exploring possibility of reapproachment between Russia and the US
After World War II, the world was characterized as bipolar with the presence of the United States and the then-USSR. But after the Cold War, the United States became the only superpower or hegemon, and the world became unipolar. However, since the start of the twenty-first century, we have noticed that the era of unipolarity in international relations has passed and that multipolarity has taken its place. In this multipolar world, the United States' main competitors are not just the People's Republic of China but also the Russian Federation.
The relationship between the United States and Russia, however, is among the most critical. On one side, they have shared interests in a diverse set of areas, including nuclear security and nonproliferation, regional security in Europe and Eurasia, countering terrorism and violent extremism, and managing the upheaval in the greater Middle East; on the other hand, they compete to become the most powerful, or hegemon, in the world. Because of this, there has been a lengthy history of conflict between the two nations, with the Cold War being the most notable.
However, their conflicting interests have changed in the twenty-first century. The scholars claim that their relationship has never been worse than it is right now. In this context, the article seeks to determine whether there is any possibility of a rapprochement between the two while also outlining some of the factors that have contributed to their current strained relationship. However, before moving forward, let's take a cursory peek at what "reapproachment" means.
Reapproachment is a situation in which two previously hostile countries or groups of people now share a stronger bond. So, in order to explore the possibilities of reapproachment in the context of Russia and the United States, two countries at different ends of the spectrum, we must first identify the significant cracks in the relationship in order to provide a solution to fill these cracks.
Russia-Ukraine war - Ukraine has grown into a key point of dispute between Russia and the USA since February 2022. Ukraine, which has long-standing cultural ties with Russia, is also considered a buffer between Russia and the West. Russia has always maintained that Ukraine is the "red line" that the West must not cross. Therefore, as part of this understanding, Russia demanded some sort of assurance from the West that Ukraine wouldn't be admitted to NATO, an organisation with anti-Russian goals. However, the US was unwilling to concede to Russia's demands.
Furthermore, several events—such as the presidency of Volodymyr Zelensky, who is viewed as harsh on Russian supporters in Ukraine; the United States' disorderly exit from Afghanistan; President Joe Biden's indecisive administration in the United States (Biden had a role in the policy of sanctions on Russia in 2014 following the annexation of Crimea); NATO expansion; the threat of regime change under the guise of democracy promotion; and, finally, Russian President Vladimir Putin's intense interest in Ukraine—aggravated Russia's decisions to attack Ukraine.
As a result, the USA also got involved because Russia was infringing on the sovereignty of its neighbours, backing repressive regimes, and establishing closer strategic ties with countries like Iran and China. The relationship between the United States and Russia has gotten worse since then and continues to do so now. Since each party perceives the other as posing a serious threat and responds by escalating the opponent's sense of fear, the Russia-Ukraine war has actually produced a security dilemma between Russia and the USA.
Therefore, one could conclude from this discussion that both nations must first address their security issues. Both parties must negotiate with one another to achieve this. Similarly, Russia and Ukraine can sign a cease-fire or peace treaty to prevent further escalation. However, this is the major issue. Apparently, all sides now see benefits in a protracted conflict.
For instance, in December 2022, the foreign minister of Ukraine offered a "peace summit" in February, to be presided over by U.N. Secretary General António Guterres, with the condition that Russia must be held accountable for war crimes before the event (Medea Benjamin, 2023). On the other hand, Sergey Lavrov, the foreign minister of Russia, gave Ukraine a frightening ultimatum: either accept Russia's proposals for peace or "the Russian Army will determine the matter." (Medea Benjamin, 2023) This demonstrates how the disputing parties are putting forth conditions that the other party will never accept.
According to the Global Times Report, the US and EU hold the key to resolving the Russia-Ukraine crisis. However, they haven't done much to defuse the Russia-Ukraine war, and by continuously supplying arms and ammunition, they've really gone in the opposite direction (Times, 2022). Instead of soothing the situation or negotiating on security concerns, the United States and its allies are attempting to find tactics, such as imposing sanctions, to make war costly for Russia and ultimately win by defeating it. As a result, Russia isn't slowing down and is launching new attacks on Ukrainian territory on a continuous basis. So, if the United States and Russia are to re-approach, they must first address their security concerns. Unfortunately, this is not going to happen anytime soon.
Furthermore, most of the bilateral nuclear arms control treaties that contributed to maintaining the precarious military balance, such as SALT, SALT II, the INF Treaty, START I, START II, and START III, are no longer in effect.
New START, which was set to expire on February 5, 2021, was extended by five years until 2026 as allowed by the treaty text. As per the U.S. Department of State, the New START Treaty provides for 18 on-site inspections per year (State, 2023). However, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, these inspections were first mutually suspended. Later, in August 2022, Russia unilaterally declared a temporary halt to U.S. inspections, claiming that the U.S. had gained "unilateral advantages" due to visa restrictions, sanctions on Russian flights, and other barriers that prevented Russian military experts from visiting U.S. nuclear weapons sites (Press, 2022).
Additionally, there is little interaction between people, which could have helped reduce geopolitical tensions. Few Russians visit, study, or work in the US, and the same is true the other way around. This makes this alternative seem unworkable as well.
To conclude, re-engagement between Russia and the US is unlikely at this time, as many doors have been closed. However, one door remains open: the door of diplomacy. Russia and the United States are two of the world's most powerful countries. Their rivalry and disagreement over the issues has had a global impact. Given the stakes involved, it is reasonable to suggest that both parties meet and discuss their concerns, whether ideological or security-related. Only in this way can everything be brought back to normal.
References
- Medea Benjamin, N. J. (2023, January 05). The Ukraine Crisis Is a Classic ‘Security Dilemma’. Retrieved from The Progressive Magazine : https://progressive.org/latest/ukraine-crisis-classic-security-dilemma-benjamin-davies-5123/
- Press, A. (2022, November 29). Russia says nuclear talks with U.S. delayed amid differences, tension over Ukraine. Retrieved from PBS News Hour : https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/russia-says-nuclear-talks-with-u-s-delayed-amid-differences-tension-over-ukraine
- State, U. D. (2023, January 12). New START Treaty. Retrieved from US Department of State : https://www.state.gov/new-start/#:~:text=The%20New%20START%20Treaty%20provides,only%20non%2Ddeployed%20strategic%20systems.
- Times, G. (2022, December 20). Key to solving Russia-Ukraine conflict lies in hands of US and EU. Retrieved from Global Times : https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202212/1282243.shtml
Pic Courtsey-Michael Afonso at unsplash.com
(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)
