“I am convinced that Armenia does not gain anything from having created this situation; in fact, it only loses[i]”. - Leonid Kuchma, Former President of Ukraine (1994-2005)

Former President of Ukraine, Leonid Kuchma, visited the territory of Azerbaijan back in 1993. This was his statement when he visited the land of Azerbaijan when he saw the conditions in which the Azeri refugees were living after the 1991-1994 war of independence for Nagorno-Karabakh. Thirty years later, the region has again attracted the attention of the international community along with a severe concern about a rising humanitarian crisis for the Armenians living in the mountains. In 2020, it was believed that an old conflict was on the verge of re-igniting into a full-scale war within the South Caucasus. Even though the international community hasn’t witnessed a full scale, the age-old conflict has escalated to an extent where an intervention from the United Nations is becoming necessary.

The re-ignited flares of 2020 were responsible was the death of 250 people living in Nagorno- Karabakh[ii]. Armenia- Azerbaijan conflict is becoming severely problematic for the international community which sees no end. And this conflict presents itself at a unique time for the global community. Countries are still trying to negotiate an end to the Russia- Ukraine War, Serbia and Kosovo are showing signs of increasing amounts of discontent amongst towards each other, Africa is riddled with a coup pandemic and the G20 summit in India has just concluded with an eye towards a democratic and peaceful world. At the international level, Nagorno-Karabakh is recognized as an official part of Azerbaijan’s territory, but its governance is claimed by ethnic Armenians in the region. The problem is enshrined in the fact that both sides have not reached a lasting diplomatic resolution to the dispute since the war of 1991-1994, which ended with only a Russia-brokered ceasefire.(Glantz, 2022)

But the situation seems more problematic than ever. With Russia dealing with the ongoing Ukrainian counter-offence, Azerbaijan has ramped up its forces around the Armenian border and pressured the state to relinquish the territory along with threatening to introduce the possibility of an armed invasion within Armenia. But will Azerbaijan invade Armenia? What does Baku expect to gain from this invasion? How will the Armenian Republic react to the possibility of an invasion? Should the international community be alerted to anotherdeadly war in the Caucasus? The purpose of the article is to critically evaluate the likelihood of Azerbaijan’s invasion of Armenia and the possible repercussions upon Baku’s governance and the geopolitics of the region.

Putting the conflict into perspective:

There are two lenses by which this conflict can be understood. For Azerbaijan, the conflict is primarily territorial. They believe that they have a rightful claim on the land as it falls within their border. Baku deems the 1991 referendum of Armenian citizens in the region to be illegal as it was conducted without prior authorization from the Azeri government.[iii] Azerbaijan considers the mountainous region of Nagorno-Karabakh essential for its national security and defence purposes by giving it a strategic advantage within the Southern Caucus. Armenians also agree on the strategic importance of the region but Nagorno-Karabakh is considered to be an essential part of the country’s identity. More than 140,000 Armenians reside in the region and a major reason behind the referendum was to unite themselves with the Republic of Armenia on the grounds of ethnicity and historical association.(Grgic, 2020 ) Armenia- Azerbaijan conflict is a quintessential case of ethno-territorial conflict and because of these reasons, the two sides continue to engage in conflicts and violent aggression.

After the fall of the Russian empire, a brief war erupted between the two sides before the Bolsheviks took control and the USSR swiftly allocated the territory to Azerbaijan. After the referendum of 1991, Nagorno-Karabakh’s “war of independence” erupted from 1991-1994. With the Russian ceasefire in place, Armenia acquiredcontrol of the region.But it’s the developments after the ceasefire of 1994, known as the Bishkek Protocol, from where the situation started to become complicated for all the parties concerned in the region.(Freizer, 2014) Bishkek Protocol established the Republic of Artsakh in Nagorno- Karabakh but it’s important to consider thatthe majority of countries consider Nagorno- Karabakh to be a part of the Azeri territory. But the de factocontrolis considered to be under the Republic of Artsakh. Even if the logic of International customary law is kept aside, Azerbaijan rightfully claims the territory purely by the virtue that internationally it is already considered to be a part of its border vis-à-vis territorial sovereignty. Not only the region was kept in limbo with no conclusive resolution plan between the two countries, but the international recognition of the territory within Azerbaijan was enough to aggravate both Baku and Yerevan. This has factored into why the situation has reached such an aggressive state of nature between the two countries. Even in 2020, after the conflict re-ignited, Russia again brokered a ceasefire agreement between the two sides but Armenia had to guarantee the security of transport connections in the region, between Azerbaijan’s territory in the Nakhchivan Exclave and Nagorno-Karabakh. But this agreement was also not completed by Armenia as it would have given Azerbaijan access to the Zangezur corridor, which would further allow Azerbaijan to have close ties with its partners like Turkey in the region[iv].

What was the reason behind the region being kept in a prolonged state of limbo? Russia’s handling of the situation has been a major cause of the instability in the region. Russia assumed the responsibility of maintaining peace in the region, partly because the problem originated from the administration of the Soviet Union but also because Russia preferred to keep peace in its neighbourhood. However, the responsibility of keeping peace in the region requires an extended effort and participation by a nation-state. Russia has been absent from its duties in the region. Starting in 1994, post-ceasefire, Russia had the responsibility to maintain peace in the region by being part of the region’s politics and ensuring that the claim of Nagorno-Karabakh was resolved between the parties. Russia has been acting as the mediator and Armenia’s major security provider in the region. But as the situation was kept in limbo, a real solution was never realized. Even though any major conflict was never seen before 2020, Armenia and Azerbaijan continued to have little skirmishes of conflict and violence, which signifies that peace was never kept in the region.

Even after the 2020 conflict, Vladimir Putin may have reached an agreement on the ceasefire, but it was never fully implemented in the region. When Azerbaijan attacked Armenia in September of 2022, Russia completely ignored the mandate under Article 4 of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).(Ohanyan, 2023) Article 4[v] of CSTO tries to replicate the sense of collective security mentioned under Article 5[vi] of NATO by establishing the clause of mutual defence in the event of an invasion. When Armenia invoked this article, Russia completely ignored this obligation stating that Nagorno-Karabakh is not covered under Russia’s concern for the safety of Armenia. With Armenia not having any strong and reliabledefence partner in the region,Azerbaijan forces took control of the Lachin corridor in December 2022, cutting off essential ties between the Armenian people in Nagorno-Karabakh and the Armenian Republic. The status quo is now convoluted with the intervention of many external actors and interests compounding upon each other.

Complications in solving the conflict: -

Four major complications are present while trying to solve this conflict. Firstly, the plight of ethnic Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh. In April of 2023, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan publicly announced that Armenia could only achieve peace on one condition: that it limit its territorial ambitions to the borders of the Armenian Society Socialist Republic.(Krivosheev, 2023) It implies that Armenia needs to relinquish its claim to Nagorno-Karabakh, the same territory upon which Armenia has had several skirmishes against Azerbaijan. The announcement was a national humiliation for Armenia for it means that Yerevan is ready to surrender the mountainous region to Baku. Why did Armenia opt to take this decision?Since the first war of 1991-1994, Azerbaijan has substantially developed its country resources. Not only does Azerbaijan have a huge advantage in terms of its growing economy, military capabilities of the two countries are vastly different, with Azerbaijan expected to have a better and abundant military arsenal than Armenia.(Gavin, 2023) Therefore, since 2020, Azerbaijan has been able to consistently mount pressure on the Armenian borders whereas Armenia still struggles to revive its army post the six-week war of 2020. The public announcement certainly shows that Armenia is not able to mount a challenge to Baku. For Armenia, the focus has shifted from regaining the territory to protecting its citizens. But Armenia is seeking a security guarantee from Baku asking that they protect the ethnic Armenians living in the region.[vii]

The second dynamic pertains to the actions of Baku. Azerbaijan is holding a political and diplomatic grudge against Armenia. Baku’s actions are very similar to what Russia did before invading Russia. Baku’s prime minister has been declaring Armenian territories, including Nagorno- Karabakh as its own, deploying troops around the Armenian borders for the last 3 months[viii]. Compounding on that, the blockade at the Lachin Corridor is a way of pressuring Armenia to relinquish its territories, along with taking all the ethnic Armenians back into its territory. Although both Armenia and Azerbaijan have respectfully filed a case at the International Court of Justice, Azerbaijan refuses to slow down at any point[ix]. Armenia has filed a case against Baku claiming that the country violates the International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial discrimination on the grounds of promoting ethnic hatred towards ethnic Armenians, to which Baku counters it by saying that Armenia has been engaged in a decade long process of ethnic cleansing against Azeris[x]. Azerbaijan doesn’t believe that there are any reasons as to why it should stop right now with military pressure, albeit a military takeover. Its closest ally Turkey is openly supporting its cause and supplying weapons to the government. Russia seems to be absent from supporting Armenia in their cause and Azerbaijan recognizes that the Armenian government won’t be able to mount up any significant counter-offense in the case of an invasion. Even the threat of international sanctions or violations of international law doesn’t seem to affect Azerbaijan as Armenia’s major security partner, Russia, declared war on Ukraine in 2022, and there seems to be no sanctimonious reason tofollow international law.

Thirdly, the active involvement of external actors. Turkey is becoming surprisingly the biggest actor which is pulling the strings in the conflict. Turkey and Azerbaijan share historical and cultural relations as both the countries have a majority population of ethnic Turks in the region and appealing to Azeri’s desires is Erdogan’s plan of Uniting the Turkic world[xi]. However cultural considerations tend to have an underlying economic agenda within the international community. Turkey imports energy from Azerbaijan. Currently, the gas is transported through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline and Turkey hasto pay for the transit cost, for the pipeline running through Georgia.[xii] If Azerbaijan is successfully able to annex the territory and the nearby Zangezur corridor, then a new pipeline can be created because,within the corridor, Turkey shares its 17 km border, which could allow Turkey to import more gas at a lower cost. Economically, it benefits Turkey and Azerbaijan. But is it a substantial economic gain for Azerbaijan? Azerbaijan will be able to export gas easily to Western countries, where the Iranian objection comes into place. Iran has been a historical ally to Armenia but more than that, if the new pipeline is built, then the demand for Iranian hydrocarbons will be reduced and Iran won’t be able to pressure the West and USA specifically to negotiate around the international sanctions imposed on Tehran. Hence, one of the reasons why Erdogan believes that currently, more than Armenia, it is Iran that is being problematic in gaining full access to the Zangezur Corridor and Nagorno-Karabakh.

Fourthly, there seems to be an incongruity in terms of any international intervention in the conflict. Russia and the West, rather than having a coordinated effort to solve the conflict, have been at loggerheads in terms of imparting their influence into the region. Even the OSCE Minsk Group, which was created back in 1992 by the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe to encourage a peaceful resolution to the Azerbaijan and Armenia conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh (headed by Russia, France and the United States of America) has lost its influence when Donald Trump was elected as the president of USA in 2016.[xiii] And Armenia has an increasing distrust amongst the international community as to who are its allies or not as Armenia has openly declared grievances for Russia’s lack of participation.Therefore, what is required is an active United Nations intervention in the conflict. Currently, as Nagorno-Karabakh is under the siege of Azerbaijan, no international journalists or observers are allowed to be inside the region. But as per the videos and pieces of evidence given by Armenians living in the region, the region has turned into a situation of humanitarian crisis. Hence, what needs to be called upon is for at least a fact-finding mission under the United Nations to get an accurate idea of the situation inside Nagorno-Karabakh. TheUN’s active intervention can also prevent the threat of an inter-state conflict.

Conclusion:

The international community cannot afford to have another inter-state war. Wars have consequences on a much larger scale. It takes a heavy toll on humanity, and people residing in the adjacent areas always must deal with the likelihood of instability and violence in the region and the dismantled relations take years to repair. And it seems that Russia’s aggression into Ukraine is making the international community revert to the norm where wars, aggressive conflicts and invasions are becoming a legitimate tool again. For now, the actions of the Azeri government cannot be foretold to an absolute, but the threat of conflict will continue to increase day by day if the international community and especially institutions like the United Nations don’t take strong action on the issue. It's important to note that the issue can be resolved by persistent diplomatic negotiations. But expecting Armenia and Azerbaijan to resolve it on their own doesn’t seem to be the most prudent option available at this point. Only guided conflict mediation can assist in resolving the situation.

It is true that within a realist paradigm of international relations, national interests supersede everything and anything. And as the national politics of countries reverts more and more to populist rhetoric, it’s becoming increasingly difficult for countries to think about global issues first and national issues second. However international institutions need to be more proactive in this situation. Currently, thereare no Western boots on the ground within Nagorno-Karabakh. Only Russian soldiers are in the region. What is required is that more countries should take part in defence exercises in the region. Baku would not be able to see the long-term repercussions of the invasion as for the country, territory is all that matters. But that’s where the international institutions can assist in constructing peaceful negotiations between the two sides.

The geopolitical landscape of the 21^st century needs to be protected by taking more proactive steps toward resolution. And Armenia- Azerbaijan conflict presents a perfect opportunity for the United Nations to ensure that countries can resolve their issues via diplomacy even in tense altercations. But what is required is an active intervention in the region. The issue with the conflictwas exaggerated when the future of Nagorno-Karabakh was kept in limbo. This time, rather than only targeting a ceasefire agreement, the energy and the attention must be also shifted towards reaching a conclusive decision regarding the situation of Nagorno-Karabakh between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Bibliography

Freizer, S. (2014). Twenty years after the Nagorny Karabakh ceasefire: an opportunity to move towards more inclusive conflict resolution . Caucasus Survey, Vol. 1(2), 109-122.

Gavin, G. (2023). Armenia vows to recognize disputed Nagorno-Karabakh as Azerbaijan aming rising tensions. POLITICO, Link- https://www.politico.eu/article/armenia-vow-recognize-azerbaijan-nagorno-karabakh-tensions/.

Glantz, M. (2022). Amid Ukraine War, Armenia and Azerbaijan Fighting Risks Broader Conflict. United States Institute of Peace.

Grgic, B. (2020 ). The EU suffered a major loss in Nagorno-Karabakh. Opinions, Al Jazeera, Link- https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2020/11/23/the-biggest-loser-in-nagorno-karabkh-is-not-armenia?traffic_source=KeepReading .

Krivosheev, K. (2023). Armenia Is Ready to Relinquish Nagorno-Karabakh: What Next? . Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Link- https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/89635.

Ohanyan, A. (2023). Is Amrmenia's Move to Join the ICC a Strategic Necessity or Geopolitical Suicide? . Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

End-Notes

[i]Svante E. Cornell. How Did Armenia So Badly Miscalculate its War with Azerbaijan (Silk Road Studies Program: Central Asia- Caucasus Institute, 2020), Link- How Did Armenia So Badly Miscalculate Its War with Azerbaijan (silkroadstudies.org) .

[ii]Alex Ward. The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, explained (Defense& Security: VOX, 2020). Link- The Armenia and Azerbaijan conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, explained - Vox

[iii]Carey Cavanaugh. Eruption of Conflict Over Nagorno-Karabakh (Strength Through Peace: Council on Foreign Relations, 2020). Link- Eruption of Conflict Over Nagorno-Karabakh | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)

[iv]Kirill, Krivosheev. Armenia Is Ready to Relinquish Nagorno- Karabakh: What Next? (Carnegie Politika: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2023). Link- Armenia Is Ready to Relinquish Nagorno-Karabakh: What Next? - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

[v]Article 4 of CSTO- “If one of the Member States undergoes aggression (armed attack menacing to safety, stability, territorial integrity and sovereignty), it will be considered by the Member States as aggression (armed attack menacing to safety, stability, territorial integrity and sovereignty) to all the Member States of this Treaty.” Link- COLLECTIVE SECURITY TREATY, dated May 15, 1992 (odkb-csto.org)

[vi] Article 5 of NATO- “Article 5 provides that if a NATO Ally is the victim of an armed attack, each and every other member of the Alliance will consider this act of violence as an armed attack against all members and will take the actions it deems necessary to assist the Ally attacked.” Link- NATO - Topic: Collective defence and Article 5

[vii]Lilit Shahverdyan. Deadly clash erupts in Nagorno- Karabakh amind Armenia- Azerbaijan peace talks (EURASIANET: 2023). Link- Deadly clash erupts in Nagorno-Karabakh amid Armenia-Azerbaijan peace talks | Eurasianet

[viii]REUTERS NEWS AGENCY. Armenia will accept Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan subject ro rights guarantee- Armenian PM cited (Europe: REUTERS NEWS AGENCY, 2023). Link- Armenia will accept Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan subject to rights guarantee - Armenian PM cited | Reuters

[ix] AL JAZEERA. Armenia accuses Azerbaijan of etnic hatred at UN court (ALJAZEERA, 2021). Link- Armenia accuses Azerbaijan of ethnic hatred at UN court | Courts News | Al Jazeera

[x]Ibid, AL JAZEERA.

[xi]Urooba Jamal. Turkey’s foreign policy: From past to potential post- Erdogan era (AL JAZEERA, 2023). Link- Turkey’s foreign policy: From past to potential post-Erdogan era | Politics News | Al Jazeera

[xii]Thomas De Waal. In the South Caucasus, Can New Trade Routes Help Overcome a History of Conflict? (Carnegie Europe: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2021). Link- In the South Caucasus, Can New Trade Routes Help Overcome a History of Conflict? - Carnegie Europe - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

[xiii]Sangeeta Nair. Armenia- Azerbaijan Conflict: Armeia, Azerbaijan agree to a humanitarian ceasefire, Know all about it (JAGRAN JOSH: 2020). Link- Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict: Armenia, Azerbaijan agree to a humanitarian ceasefire, Know all about it (jagranjosh.com)2

Pic Courtsey-Eberhard Gross Gasteiger at unsplash.com

(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)