Evaluating Taiwan's ability to defend itself against China
It has been almost a year since Russia invaded Ukraine the world witnessed chain reactions all across the world in many aspects because of this conflict, and now most of the world is looking at Taiwan as the next vulnerable thing to experience an invasion. According to China, it is obligated by presidential decree to invade Taiwan in the event of exhausting all the peaceful measures and negotiations to stop Taiwan from getting independent. the "Anti-Secession Law" enacted by the National People's Congress of the People's Republic of China in 2005. This law authorizes the use of "non-peaceful means" against Taiwan if it seeks formal independence from China. The law was seen as a response to growing calls for independence in Taiwan and was seen as a means of deterring the island from moving in that direction.
China and Taiwan are separated by a 130km strait which is called the Taiwan strait or Formosa strait. China’s Fujian province is the closest to Taiwan, in 1995 China does many exercises and missile tests in this province which mimicked combat exercises to cross the Taiwan strait. these exercises were the results of US congress approving a Visa to then Taiwan’s president, denying China’s claim over Taiwan. After the exercises of China in Fujian province, The US (then president Bill Clinton) sent Aircraft carriers, destroyers and guided missile cruisers to go through the Taiwan Strait. after this China backed down on its exercises.
A lot has changed since that time in economic, political and military aspects in China, it is well-documented that there have been multiple instances in which Chinese military aircraft have flown close to or entered Taiwan's air defence identification zone (ADIZ). These incidents typically occur during times of heightened tensions between the two sides and are seen as a demonstration of China's military capabilities and a signal to Taiwan and the international community. Chinese incursions into Taiwan ADIZs increase substantially in September 2021, to try and calm things down Biden tried to use the same strategy as Clinton, but this time it didn’t work, The USA went through the Taiwan Strait with guided-missile destroyers accompanied by a few ships from Canadian Navy in September 2021, China in return increased the number of incursion into Taiwan ADIZ instead of backing down like in 1995. This shows the increased military might of the PLA.
This campaign of China to intimidate Taiwan with its daily military exercises, patrols and surveillance fall under grey-zone warfare, China and Taiwan have a complex and politically sensitive relationship. Taiwan, officially known as the Republic of China, has its government and military, while China, officially known as the People's Republic of China, considers Taiwan to be a province that has yet to be reunified with the mainland. Despite this, both sides have maintained economic, trade, and cultural links, and there have been some attempts at dialogue and reconciliation in recent years. However, the issue remains a source of geopolitical tension and is closely watched by the international community.
The international community has expressed concern over the potential for a conflict between China and Taiwan, and most countries do not support the use of military force to resolve the issue. The overwhelming majority of nations do not officially recognize Taiwan as an independent country, instead recognizing the People's Republic of China as the sole legitimate government of China. However, there have been increasing tensions in recent years, particularly as China has become more assertive in asserting its claims to Taiwan and the region more broadly.
Many experts believe that the risk of a military conflict between China and Taiwan is low, but not impossible. The situation is closely monitored by the international community, and there are calls for peaceful and diplomatic solutions to be pursued. The use of military force would likely have severe consequences for both China and Taiwan, as well as for regional stability and the global economy.
Taiwan has a modern military force that includes a variety of weapons systems that could be used in the event of aggression from China. Some of the key weapons systems in the Taiwanese military include:
Naval vessels: Taiwan has a modern navy that includes frigates, corvettes, and submarines. Some of these vessels are equipped with anti-ship missiles, which could be used to engage Chinese ships in the event of a conflict.
Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs): Taiwan has some UAVs, including the Teng Yun, which can be used for reconnaissance and surveillance.
Military defence: Taiwan has a well-equipped military with modern weapons systems, including fighter jets, tanks, and surface-to-air missiles. Taiwan has a fleet of F-16 and Indigenous Defense Fighters (IDF) that can be used for air-to-air and air-to-ground combat. Taiwan has several Surface-to-air missiles (SAM) systems, such as the Patriot and Sky Bow, that can be used to defend against incoming missiles and aircraft. Taiwan has a fleet of modern tanks, such as the M60A3 and CM-11 Brave Tiger, that can be used in ground combat. Taiwan has several cruise missiles, including the Tien Kung III and Tien Chien II, that can be used to attack ground targets. Taiwan has a variety of artillery systems, including self-propelled howitzers, that can be used to provide long-range firepower.
Taiwan has a robust cyber defence system, which can defend against cyber attacks from China. Taiwan has a strong economy, which can withstand economic pressure from China. Taiwan has diplomatic support from several countries, including the United States, which could provide military assistance in case of aggression.
It's worth noting that Taiwan's military capability is largely defensive, and is meant to deter a potential invasion by China rather than engage in offensive operations. The defence equipment of China and Taiwan differ in terms of both quantity and quality. China has a larger military and a more robust defence budget, which allows it to maintain a larger and more advanced arsenal of weapons and equipment. This includes a large number of advanced fighter jets, missiles, amphibious assault ships, and artillery, as well as investments in cyber and electronic warfare capabilities.
Taiwan, on the other hand, has a smaller military and a limited defence budget. However, it has sought to modernize its military in recent years and has made investments in upgrading its weapons and equipment. Taiwan's military is primarily focused on defence and has a strong emphasis on air defence and asymmetric capabilities, such as coastal defence missiles and submarines.
In terms of overall military capabilities, China has the advantage in terms of sheer size and resources, but Taiwan has made significant investments in modernizing its military and has a strong emphasis on defence. The outcome of any potential conflict would likely depend on a variety of factors, including tactics, strategy, and the political and diplomatic context. Taiwan has a population that is highly supportive of its independence and will likely resist any attempts by China to reunify Taiwan by force.
Preparations:
A modern war between great powers (and even not-so-great powers) consumes huge stocks of key munitions, especially precision-guided ones for high-intensity naval, air, and amphibious warfare. So China would have already started surging production of ballistic and cruise missiles; anti-air, air-to-air, and large rockets for long-range beach bombardment; and numerous other items, at least a year before D-Day. Non-governmental analysts have used commercial satellite imagery to discover fresh military installations and weaponry in China, including what seems to be novel fields of silos for its rapidly expanding nuclear-armed fleet of intercontinental ballistic missiles. If China were to produce large amounts of crucial munitions, this activity would be detectable by both government and non-governmental observers worldwide.
In addition, China would adopt noticeable measures to protect its economy, military, and important industries against interruptions and sanctions. These steps would go further than China's current industrial policies and "dual circulation" strategy, which aim to achieve self-sufficiency in technology and materials, or its limited responses to the United States' increasing use of export controls, sanctions, and economic and financial pressure.
CIA Director William Burns has revealed that Chinese President Xi Jinping has instructed his country’s army "to be ready by 2027 to conduct a successful invasion" of Taiwan. This comes after the 20th CPC national congress, the president said “The entire military should devote all its energy to and carry out all its work for combat readiness, enhance its capabilities to fight and win”. He also said that “security is increasingly unstable and uncertain”.
War is one of the hardest things to predict, but we can consider some of the most probable scenarios. Even though we tried to list out some of the actions that will be taken by China in preparation for the invasion, the exact scenario of an invasion might start with one of China’s routine exercises of entering Taiwan's air defence identification zone (ADIZ), which will end up in a bombing of the military facilities, airstrips, Radars, power stations, communication networks etc. this might be followed by missile launches. Chinese ships landing on the shores of Taiwan carrying men and equipment, plenty of amphibious fighter vehicles, and military hovercrafts will be included in this fleet. Even though China can cripple some of Taiwan’s defence capabilities of Taiwan with a first strike, Taiwan also has Hidden airstrips and Missile Silos which it will use in the case of retaliation.
If the United States decided to respond, then their nearest bases are in Japan and Guam which have aircraft carriers with jets, bombers and stealth aircraft, these bases also hold fast attack submarines, and any direct response from the USA can imply direct combat between the USA and China, two of the largest militaries in the world with nuclear weapons. Any involvement of the USA can also lead to the involvement of its allies Japan and Australia. And from here it can always escalate to scenarios that a man cannot even imagine.
In conclusion, while Taiwan has made impressive strides in enhancing its military capabilities, its ability to defend itself against a potential attack from China remains limited. The geographical proximity of China and its military prowess pose a significant challenge to Taiwan's defence strategy. Furthermore, any direct intervention by the United States in response to an attack on Taiwan could lead to a dangerous escalation of the conflict, potentially involving other major powers and even leading to the use of nuclear weapons. Ultimately, the best course of action for Taiwan is to continue strengthening its military and diplomatic ties with other countries while pursuing a peaceful resolution to the ongoing tensions with China.
Pic Courtsey-Eurasian Times
(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)
