During the COVID-19 times it has been increasingly debated that whether it will bring about a tectonic change in the global order or this biomedical (or pandemic) tragedy would impede the rise of China. If one evaluates the developments in the Indo-Pacific region one can very well presume that the countries in the region are hesitant with regard to castigating China or bandwagoning with the US. The developments in East China Sea, Taiwan presidential elections (reelection of Tsai Ing-wen), tensions in the South China Sea, and the impact of Wuhan virus on the political and economic structure of the whole of South Asia as well as Southeast Asia have cast shadow on the future of Indo-Pacific. This has also been because of the fact that the US has not been able to reinforce its military power, and ensure that its allies and partners are not affected by the Chinese aggressive approach. China, on the other hand, has been trying very hard to project itself as not the global culprit for the spread of Wuhan virus. However, its role with regard to informing the World Health Organisation (WHO) and undertaking preventive measures has come under scrutiny.
The US political leadership because of the forthcoming elections has been trying hard to hide its flaws and reassure its partners that it is willing to undertake strategic risks and military maneuvers to undermine China as growing military power. The turn of events in the post COVID-19 phase needs to be looked from the framework of socio-economic and political aspects. China has been accused of being responsible for spread of the virus and risking the lives of millions of people across the world. Anti-Chinese riots might break out in those countries where people have lost lives and also jobs. The US and the European countries understand that China would not be willing to reveal the actual conditions and allow investigation into the genesis of the virus. It would undertake all kinds of diplomatic maneuvers to protect its national interest and international standing. The social impact of the Corona virus can be felt across spectrum, and it would affect employment, mental health, lifestyle changes and socio-cultural aspects. The social impact of this whole virus would also permeate into the economic domain leading to savings and rational consumption patterns. Given the fact that the savings and the medical costs for treatment will escalate therefore people will try to postpone their extra expenses related to tourism, entertainment and other activities including arts, culture and related leisurely aspects.
In the economic domain, China which has been on the top of the global production ladder would try to make amends and compromise with the concerns of the trading partners with regard to the skewed trading pattern. Nonetheless, its own domestic fissures and angst against the regime would have an adverse effect on its economy. Xi Jinping might have to give doles to the people, and make provisions for the social security so that the unrest does not trickle down to the lower strata of the society. Most of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects which have been in the limbo or the projects have been reduced drastically would be facing deadlines for the repayment. In this respect if China provides cushion or forgoes a part of the interest for the loan, then many countries would not be willing to take cudgels against the communist regime. The US and the European nations need to reinforce the fact that China will be penalised for its wrongdoing and they are serious with regard to this. Otherwise, most of the countries which are neutral to China and the US would start believing that China is the default global power in Indo-Pacific region. Also, with regard to biomedical research and the development of the vaccine would create semblance and order at the global level. Countries in South Asia which are dependent on exports and expatriate labour for remittances would start feeling the pinch of the recessionary trends. Whether China or the US can generate the global demand would decide the fate of the post Covid 19 Indo-Pacific order.
Evaluating this concept from the point of view of South Asia, Southeast Asia, East Asia and the South Pacific, it would be pertinent to note that whichever power (US or China) provides the first succour. In East Asia, Japan and South Korea will be facing immense pressure on their economies and would try to get out of this recessionary phase and return to their economic growth during the pre COVID-19 phase. North Korea would be the cliffhanger as well as alibi for the Chinese in the long run. The suspicion and doubts with regard to the future of the North Korean dictator regime is still not clear and the health conditions of the Kim Jong Un are still a matter of conjecture. The re-election of the Taiwanese president has also in annoyed China, and the success of the Taiwan in overcoming COVID-19 crisis along with its dalliance with the US, has given sleepless nights to the mandarins in Beijing. The developments in Hong Kong particularly the imposition of the national security law of China would require deft handling from the international community as well as cajoling of the communist leaders so that the one country two systems experiment does not fail. Within Indo-Pacific the developments in East Asia would be a major aspect to decide about the future of the geopolitical construct.
In the context of Southeast Asia, the ASEAN outlook related to the Indo-Pacific has been very clear. As per the documents released by ASEAN the outlook on the Indo-Pacific highlights few critical points which include Indo-Pacific as a contiguous space encapsulating Asia Pacific and the Indian Ocean. ASEAN as an organization has been very cautious with regard to articulating the utility of this Indo-Pacific, and has clearly stated that it will be a forum for dialogue, development, prosperity with ASEAN centrality. Nonetheless, it acknowledges the fact that this concept would be very important for cooperation in maritime domain and helpful in developing regional architecture.
The developments in South China Sea (SCS) which have been increasingly been seen as the dividing factor among the ASEAN nations are emerging as the unifying force among the ASEAN claimant countries, including Indonesia. The submission which has been made by the Malaysia with regard to its continental shelf in South China Sea and the representation of Vietnam in the UN for protection of its strategic assets in the region is being supported by the Philippines and Indonesia. While it is well acknowledged that the draft Code of Conduct on SCS will not see early conclusion. It depends on the commitment of major powers towards global commons, and a responsibility to enforce the rule of law by undertaking the freedom of navigation operations (FONOPS) in this contested region. The US activity in South China Sea is a reinforcing promise but US belief in brinkmanship has not deterred China from declaring the unilateral fishing ban or militarisation of the reclaimed islands. Even lately the QUAD 2.0 architecture has been seen as a promising strategic idea but even before it takes off there are already conditions and aspirations cast on its blueprint. The concept of Quad plus which includes New Zealand, South Korea and Vietnam chooses the dialogue partners of ASEAN along with one ASEAN member for representational purposes. It is a reinforcement of US hub and spokes model without acknowledging the fact that free riders on a nascent concept are detrimental to the growth of this idea. There exist differences between the Quad members and the likely objectives of this defence forum which is highly militarist in nature. The dichotomy that exists between the role of Indo-Pacific concept and the utility of Quad 2.0 needs to be resolved so as to increase subscription and regional acceptance.
In the early 1990s when Asia Pacific concept was in nascent stages, the reinforcement with regard to the regional organisations such as APEC along with US commitment to the cause made a big difference. The commitment need to be reinforced in the case of Indo-Pacific also even though there has been talk with regard to the blue dot network as well as in the Indo-Pacific economic corridor encapsulating the two economic regions of South Asia and Southeast Asia, there is a need for a game plan to integrate the countries in the region through supply chain mechanisms as well as integrated production centers. The statement with regard to Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) because of India not joining this grouping has left a big market outside the geographic outline of RCEP. Nevertheless, the utility and success of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) is still to be seen. The US has not been involved in any major emerging regional economic grouping with the exception of APEC in the region. The US need to provide the market as well as increasing demand so that these economies can come out of the COVID-19 affect. The bilateral trade between ASEAN and China is nearly 600 billion dollars. With US in the mode of technology denials and soft sections on China, the countries in the region would try to harvest the economic capital in this change circumstances.
China has also been making inroads in the South Pacific through its aid and assistance program because of which two of the island economies have shifted affiliation from Taiwan to China. This includes Kiribati and Tonga. China is planning to develop military base in Vanuatu and in Tulagi Island in South Pacific. The pro-China president of Kiribati lost elections in April. This encroachment in strategic spaces governed by the European powers, the US and Australia would define the importance of China in the geopolitical dynamics and how its manoeuvres its resurgence in the post Covid-19 period.
In this context there are five major factors which need to be considered for defining the utility of Indo-Pacific and how the Chinese countermeasures can be effective or ineffective in the post COVID-19 phase. Firstly, the development of the vaccine and its availability to the masses in the Indo-Pacific region would be critical game changer. Second, the ways to avoid global recessionary trends and the role the US and the Western powers can play in generating demand. Third, any military confrontation between China and the US involving Taiwan, East China Sea or South China Sea would define and chart the future of the US. The US credibility will impact the utility of this concept. The only alternative which can emerge is the development of an Asian quad which can be effective and committed to this aspect of Indo-Pacific, in case the US is not able to bring its act together. Fourth, the shifting of the production centres cannot be done overnight however if there are trade sanctions on China while at the same time US giving liberal tariff concessions to the competing economies would create a new narrative related to the subject. Also the role of the international institutions such as WHO, UNSC and international economic institutions would be instrumental in defining Beijing stature. Fifth, in case there could be a new Cold War or possibility of a rapprochement between US and Russia would define the future of the Indo-Pacific. People have started writing that Indo-Pacific would be an inclusive concept including China but in the current scenario this is a far-fetched opinion .The regional middle powers and major powers would define the Indo-Pacific and the possible utility of this concept having geo-political and strategic underpinnings.
(The views expressed are personal)