Refugees are not terrorists. They are often first victims of terrorism.”- Antonia Guterres, United Nations Secretary-General

Introduction: -

Council of Europe (CoE) and European Union (EU) states have an undeniable sovereign right to control the entry of non-nationals/alien into their territory. The European Courts of Human Rights case of Saadi v. the United Kingdom of 2008 and Chahal v. the United Kingdom of 1996, further mentioned a consideration for this ultimate sovereign right (Kjaerum, 2015). The rights in line must be dealt with the provisions laid down by the European Convention of Human Rights (ECHR), especially after the 1996 case of Ammur v. France. EU Schengen Borders Code of 2016, fundamentally lays down the ideal of governing border control, including but not limited to the non- prejudice towards the rights of refugees in article 3[i] and the respect to fundamental rights of the refugees and migrants under article 4[ii] (Kjaerum, 2015). The argument of force or any military action is allowed as a last resort in the ECHR and focuses those states complete their obligation to protect people against loss of life, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment.

After the Belarusian independence of 1991, Minsk became an integral part of the European Economic Commission and via multilateral treaties, became an operating part of the European Union single market and trading system. Effective trade relations with EU, becoming member of the EU Generalized System of Preferences and active participation in the EU- Eastern Partnership (Kudrytski, 2021). But this clean array of EU- Belarusian relations came under red light after the election of Aleksander Lukashenko in 1994. A symbol of the bygone Soviet-era socialism and a former troop in the Soviet army, Lukashenko’s main objective were to continue the Soviet legacy in the country. State ownership of key industries was continued, the 1995 “four-question referendum” granted the Russian language equal status with Belarusian and retained the coat of arms of the national flag of Belarus, based upon the symbols of former Byelorussian SSR (Usov, 2008). Calling himself “Europe’s last dictator”, his authoritarian government has been a concern for the EU and international community (Richter, 2021). The western liberal world heavily questions the legitimacy of Lukashenko’s rule and the presidency in the region and refuses to believe that Lukashenko will be able to lead the political and economic affairs of the country. Since 1994, the EU and Belarus have gone back and forth considering condemning and ignoring each other practise and advice. Though the EU retracted some of its diplomatic sanctions in 2015 after it participated in the EU’s Eastern Partnership (Gustav Gressel, 2021), Belarusian relations with the EU have a saga of ideological, democratic polarization and diplomatic tensions which have resulted in both parties on the opposite side of each other for more than 2 decades.

Belarus and European Union have crossed paths once again but in the form of a migrant crisis which has started to attract serious international concern. The sudden influx of migrants outside the bordering nations of Lithuania, Latvia, Ukraine and especially Poland, have called upon the policies of Minsk and its obligation under international and EU law to manage the rising migrant crisis in the area. The severe degradation in the relations has introduced a crisis that is putting the lives of people at risk. Mainly because of Lukashenko’s policies, migrant pressure on the neighbouring countries has called upon the standards of the humanitarian ethics that Lukashenko tends to believe and increasing the risk of militancy and violent conflict in the region. But this issue has a lot of variables to consider. What is the role of Lukashenko in this crisis? What is the stake of migrants in this political crisis? Is this a case of weaponizing migration to pressure other state parties to come into terms with Lukashenko? The purpose of this article is to analyse the factors behind this crisis and explore the available political outcomes out of this crisis.

The Lukashenko Problem: -

“Authoritarianism is not pretending anymore to be a real alternative to democracy, but we can see many more authoritarian practices and styles being smuggled into democratic governments”- Ivan Krastev

The effect of the Lukashenko regime has been quite visible in Belarusian society since 1994. Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) has accused Lukashenko of conducting fraudulent elections and restricted the monitoring capabilities of the European Union in the region (Barigazzi, 2021). The crisis has its roots in the 2020 presidential elections when Lukashenko stood for the 6^th term in Belarus. The Lukashenko Brand came under increased scrutiny when OSCE reported that Belarusian 2020 elections were severly tampered with by the centre to retain power at the head. Even the case of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the only strong opposition to stand against Lukashenko, was dealing with election tampering from Lukashenko’s administration, forcing her to exile in Lithuania after the elections (Loffe, Is the Belarusian Political Crisis Finally Coming to an End?, 2021). The landslide victory that was declared for Lukashenko, which was 80% of the total vote, led to huge protests and dissent against the 6^th Lukashenko term. The international reaction to the elections was met with complete disdain and rejection of the results, especially from the EU’s western allies namely the United States of America, Canada, and the United Kingdom. Independent electoral and voting organizations indeed pushed the conclusion that Tsikhanouskaya was the actual winner of the elections, which further prompted the nationwide refusal of the 2020 elections (Kudrytski, 2021). With the protesters being oppressed by the state violence, the EU further pushed for sanctions towards Minsk due to the democratic fraud and usage of violence upon the citizens of Belarus, indicating a strong presence of state terrorism during this event. Polarized ideas of governance and state structure, existing between the EU and Lukashenko, continued to be a factor of diplomatic friction. Though the economic front might have seen developments and cordial relations between both the parties, but the problem of ideology and the governing system have led to this confrontation. Lukashenko’s 6^th term is seen as a threat to the western ideals of democracy and constitutionalism. Totalitarianism, with the roots of Stalinist authoritarianism hidden behind the administration's claims and engineered perception of civil liberty for its citizens.  

Lukashenko’s regime has failed to restrict the growing international recognition of the deplorable human rights situation, manifesting as a conflict among the citizens and the state. The severity of the concern can be measured as the opposition parties have played a major role in convincing that sanctions should be put in the country (Felgenhauer, 2021). A measure that the opposition believes can only bring some change or disability to Lukashenko’s regime. His ideas continue to rule the country as a dictator with the disguise of a democratic mechanism. The options of voting and dissenting against the president might exist in the country’s constitution but they are rendered meaningless when it comes to the actual results and implementation of those mechanisms in the country. Sanctions, both by the West and opposition parties to Lukashenko are being viewed as a measure to force him to make concessions on the rising number of repressions, freeing the political prisoners in the form of opposing parties’ leaders and journalists and re- conducting 2020 presidential elections or accept the results of the populous, not the leaders (Mark Leonard, 2021). The problem was not only limited to botched elections. 2021 interception of Ryannie Flight 4878 furthered caused distress among the international community regarding the modus operandi of his regime (Mark Leonard, 2021). The plane was carrying the opposition activist and journalist Roman Protasecvis. Coercible landing of the plane led to Protasecvis’ arrest and the sanctions of the West directed its focus towards the state-owned Belarusian companies, including travel bans, asset freeze and banned from flying into the EU airspace. At the 2020 Summer Olympics in Tokyo during July and August 2021, Belarusian sprinter Krystina Tsimanouskaya criticized national coaches, who then tried to force her back to Belarus (Kudrytski, 2021). The empirical understanding of these events proves the rhetoric of dictatorship that his regime is trying to establish.  This rhetoric is heightened by the hostility that Lukashenko continues to have against the European Union. The enactment of policies, specifically targeted to make a mockery of the EU Law, adds this dynamic of revenge and hatred towards the supranational institution. The illusion of democracy, mockery of the international democratic regime has led to an influx of migrants, which is a construction of the Lukashenko regime. A pattern of controlling domestic and international affairs, affecting the diplomatic reputation of Lukashenko, is a similar trait found in every dictator regime in the past. Argumentation on a similar scale that Hannah Arendt tried to contextualize in her work, “The Origins of Totalitarianism”.

Weaponization of the Migrant Crisis: -

“Human beings should be treated as an end itself but not as a means to end.”- Immanuel Kant

Since the start of the summer of 2021, Lukashenko being frustrated and angry over the international sanctions put over Minsk, threatened to increase the influx of human traffickers, drug smugglers and migrants in Europe and the erstwhile European Union (Dallison, 2021). Belarusian authorities and state-controlled tourist enterprises, together with some airlines operating in the Middle East, started promoting tours to Belarus by increasing the number of connections from the Middle East and giving those who bought them visas, ostensibly for hunting purposes. Fraudulent advice was being put out on the newly revised rules of crossing the border to possible prospective migrants (Bornio, 2021). This advice becomes a problem considering most of the migrants direct their route towards nations like Germany and France. A fraudulent mechanism by Minsk to increase trespassing into the European Union. Migrants reaching Belarus’s border were being taught with information by the state authorities to gain access into the European border, including the areas which had more open borders than others (Bornio, 2021). For migrants, which were not able to cross the borders, were dealing with the problem of lack of aid from the Lukashenko administration and state oppression for dispersing them away from the Belarusian border. Poland, being the geo-political entrant into the EU border, has been dealing with the influx that led to the establishment of makeshift camps but the strict security of Polish forces and the rising nationalist waves in Warsaw has led to the objective of keeping migrants behind the barbed border fence. Directing to the EU authorities, Lukashenko’s refusal to abide by the international agreement of protecting the migrants and restricting the flow of illegal migrants in the EU, led to Brussels cutting EU funds towards the Minsk government (Wesel, 2021). Planes carrying migrants from Iraq, Syria and other countries began arriving in Belarus, and they soon headed for the borders with Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia (Zerka, 2021).

Belarusian opposition member, Pavel Latushka, disclosed the tactics of the administration in terms of assisting with visa support (DW News, 2021). Brussels has indeed accused Lukashenko of deploying a “hybrid attack”, involving the usage of migrants to counter the sanctions by the West (BBC News, 2021). The debate of humanitarian ethics has been now tilted towards the EU by Lukashenko, stating the violation of migration rights by the EU. The reason Poland has become the centre of this migrant influx has a two-fold analysis. Firstly, as stated above, Polish territory provides direct access to the EU mainland. Therefore, the quest of seeking asylum in better nations rests with crossing the Polish border. Secondly, neighbour countries like Lithuania have introduced a state of emergency to deal with migrants (France 24, 2021). Though the Lithuanian government has been assisting in allowing access to small groups of migrants and providing them with reasonable humanitarian aid, it seeks to avoid a violent confrontation with Belarusian authorities. The increasing act of migrants entering is being witnessed on the Polish border. Polish authorities declare that the recent week influx being around 3,000- 4,000 migrants, the acts of using shovels and wire cutters have subsequently increased (BBC News, 2021). Warsaw’s retaliation has been equally strong as deploying increasing security forces and using water cannons to disperse them away from the migrants from the borders, showcases the Polish determination of not allowing huge groups of migrants into the mainland. EU is determined to showcase a strong sight of solidarity with Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Ukraine but the current focus for the council is to increase the severity and consequentiality of sanctions towards Lukashenko. Though EU officials and European Council President Charles Michel are deliberating for a possibility of financing “physical infrastructure” such as barriers or fences on the border, the question of Lukashenko’s dexterity towards the migrant influx remains unshattered. (Spirlet, 2021)

Suffice to argue, the obvious outcome of this stalemate will only lead to diplomatic toxicity between both the representatives and complicate the process of negotiation between the EU and Belarus. Russia continues to be a strong ally for Lukashenko via the financial and political support that Putin continues to exert on his regime. Diplomatic support on the migrant crisis is witnessed as the foreign ministry of Russia has been arguing that the root cause of the migrant influx is primarily because of US intervention in Iraq and Afghanistan (Gustav Gressel, 2021). Claiming that Belarus has already hosted between 20,000 migrants, Russia support has allowed Lukashenko to continue with this deplorable diplomatic tension in the region (Gustav Gressel, 2021). The stalemate continues to exist as Lukashenko believes that it will be able to bend the EU according to his political will, whereas the EU continues to pursue its policy of sanctioning and ostracizing Lukashenko from the EU law to persuade him to increase Belarus’s intake of migrants and solving its ongoing political crisis. But the continued instrumentalization of migrants and a European Commission argues Lukashenko’s “inhuman, gangster-style approach”, is creating a landscape reminiscent of a war zone (BBC News, 2021). Weaponizing the migrant crisis is an instrument of state terrorism. Lukashenko’s intention of creating a culprit out of European Countries and scapegoating the US for creating the influx in the first place is a clear sign of the tactics that his regime is willing to deploy. Humanism at this junction doesn’t exist for Lukashenko. Already being charged with numerous human rights violations, involving suppression of free speech, kidnapping of political opponents, this manufactured migrant crisis showcases the quintessential authoritarian regime under Lukashenko’s control. Engineering of this crisis involves a migration disposition, to appropriate territory or resources of the targeted mainland and migration exporting, to solidify power or politically destabilize the party’s diplomatic contest. At the heart of this crisis, there’s a humanism that is not only being ignored but resorted to a narrative where the relentless pursuit of a political stronghold has no limits.

Conclusion: -

EU’s imperative should focus on not tolerating the weaponization of migration. Not only the liberal democratic regime is a question but the precedent of not considering deplorable treatment of human beings as a force of political coercion. Concessions at this point mean that Lukashenko will have an upper hand over the supranational institute. EU must establish its firm ground for its political and diplomatic reasons. The situation as compared to Belarus’s entry during the ECC is much different. In a post- 2008 Global Financial Crisis scenario, the legitimacy of a supranational institute is not limited to economic feasibility. Political legitimacy can only be strengthened if, during the time of political crisis, the party concerned can pursue its ideological stance. In a world order, which has moved past the phase of authoritarians and dictators, the EU and West need to consolidate their strength against “Europe’s last dictator”. But the route should be one dimensional. The problem of sanctions is that at one point they can become pointless. If Belarus will continue to receive financial assistance from Moscow, sanctions won’t be an effective measure of isolating a nation-state. EU and the West can establish a multilateral partnership along with the nations bordering Belarus and in Eastern Europe. At the heart of this migrant crisis, is a political failure of the Lukashenko regime. But the difference of the 6^th term is the rising discontent among the nation and international community. The political crisis in Belarus continues to haunt the European Union. When it comes to the state of migrants entering Polish territory, here the legitimacy of international organisations such as the United Nations Human Rights Council and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees will be tested. The sole responsibility of handling a manufactured refugee crisis cannot be handed out to Warsaw. The spirit of the Refugee Convention, European Convention of Human Rights and Universal Declaration of Human rights, not leaving out the commitments of International Humanitarian Law to protect refugees and migrants, will only continue to exist if a multilateral effort of nations acts during these crises. Post- Covid- 19 world needs this outlook for the success of liberal institutionalism and democratic peace of the international society.

Notes

[i] Article 3- This Regulation shall apply to any person crossing the internal or external borders of Member States, without prejudice to:

(a) the rights of persons enjoying the right of free movement under Union law.

(b) the rights of refugees and persons requesting international protection, in particular as regards non-refoulement. (REGULATION (EU) 2016/399 OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL

 of 9 March 2016 on a Union Code on the rules governing the movement of persons across borders (Schengen Borders Code Link- EUR-Lex - 02016R0399-20190611 - EN - EUR-Lex (europa.eu))

[ii] Article 4- When applying this Regulation, Member States shall act in full compliance with relevant Union law, including the Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union (‘the Charter’), relevant international law, including the Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees done at Geneva on 28 July 1951 (‘the Geneva Convention’), obligations related to access to international protection, in particular the principle of non-refoulement, and fundamental rights. In accordance with the general principles of Union law, decisions under this Regulation shall be taken on an individual basis. (REGULATION (EU) 2016/399 OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL

 of 9 March 2016 on a Union Code on the rules governing the movement of persons across borders (Schengen Borders Code Link- EUR-Lex - 02016R0399-20190611 - EN - EUR-Lex (europa.eu))

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Pic Courtesy-Folco Masi at unsplash.com

(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)