Deciphering Undercurrents in Trump visit to India

Strategic Energy Partnership between the two countries also highlights the possibility of cooperation in long term supply agreement between the two countries and also possibility in research in renewable energy, coal bed methane, gas hydrates and shale gas exploration. For US the bigger issues were the lopsided balance of trade between the two countries which has been addressed through energy imports from the US. India has complied with US request for significantly reducing oil imports from Venezuela and completely stopping oil imports from Iran because of the US sanctions regime. Energy imports from US now account for about US $ 7.7 billion dollars and with India looking for long term LNG supply agreement, the volume and value would go high in future. India is looking for about US$60 billion investment to accelerate research in its renewable energy sector and promote renewable fuels.

In the case of defence there have been milestone agreements with regard to purchase of Romeo and Apache helicopters. One must admit to the fact that the quality controls and commitment to the agreement is flawless with regard to US defence contractors and the government itself. Albeit there have been cases of vendors indulging in shady contracts and corruption. Therefore, Government to Government agreements is usually resorted to. The US major military aircraft manufactures have suffered a shock when instead of buying F-16 or F-18, India chose to purchase Rafale fighter jets from France; again on a G2G basis. This has helped India in diversifying its weapons basket as well as the associated weapon systems. India’s import of Russian S-400 missile defence systems is a forgone conclusion that India would purchase the missile defence system and during the visit there was tacit approval from the US side with only an underlying concern that no additional weapons systems should be purchased from Russia. However, Russia is still in the process of meeting the orders which have been signed nearly ten years back including the supply of spare parts and maintenance of many critical defence equipments. Therefore, the possibility of complete curbing of Russian weapons imports in also not possible. However, the joint ventures with Russia be it the case of the development of hypersonic Brahmos project or Russia proposal to start the AK-203 factory in India would meet the US roadblocks. Brahmos might skirt this because this is an ongoing project but any possibility of joint venture would need to placate US through import of more US weapon systems. People and writers in the pursuit of undermining the visit have completely ignored the third major agreement which was discussed between the two leaders and which is the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA). The question arises that why India is reluctant to sign on the dotted lines and which are the reservations relate to BECA. The important aspect related to BECA is the geospatial cooperation and the problem is identifying location nodes and coordinates of the different military installations which would act as ground control and transmission system. The geospatial data sharing and exchange would be a critical issue because then it would expose important military installations and also other critical infrastructure.

The Industrial Security Annex (ISA) which provides necessary structural support to India-U.S. General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) have been discussed during the 2+2 talks in December 2019 meeting. US has given its acceptance to locate its headquarters of Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI) In India which has been the brainchild of Indian PM Modi. These structural support of the cooperation are critical for long term vision and critical ventures in which both the countries are partners. Defence Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI) has been seen as a major initiative between the two countries and the Standard Operating procedures have been adopted but India despite not being an alliance pattern is stressing on the fact that DTTI should be identical with Defence Technology Trade Agreement(DTTA) which the US has signed with Japan and Australia. The collaboration between two in the field of science, technology and innovation had certain impediments like Intellectual Property Rights which India acknowledged and accepted which were much in sync with the India’s National policy. The holding of the India-U.S. joint tri-services and amphibious exercise- ‘Tiger Triumph’ on an annual basis for HADR purposes was already agreed. This technically means the exercises would be placed somewhere between Milan and Malabar in terms of interoperability and collaboration. The intensity of Milan which is more of a liaison meeting with PASSEX exercises and comparing it with Malabar series means full spectrum of coordination including group sail. The HADR might be a façade to look into critical cooperation beyond the usual military exchange.

In strategic parlance it is often stated that if the Ocean is calm and there are no ships on the surface it might mean that any submarine might be lurking round. The same is the case with the India- US partnership, if there are no apparent ripples in the water then it means that there is a long range planning at subsurface level taking shape. It is good to negate the achievement of the visit but it would be foolhardy to say that it was more symbolism because both leaders agreed on Global Strategic Partnership.

(Dr. Pankaj Jha is Executive Director of Centre for Security and Strategy Studies www.cescube.com)