Complications of the Kuril Islands Dispute: By-product of Russia- Ukraine War
The purpose of this paper is to re-visit the Russia- Japan territorial conflict on the Kuril Islands. Kuril Islands dispute has been a contentious issue for both parties since the start of the Cold War. Disputed on the grounds of ownership of the islands, both parties have not been able to conclude a peace- treaty when it comes to the ownership of the islands. The Kuril territorial islands dispute has not been an active conflict between both parties, but the diplomatic contest has been ongoing between the two countries. Japan has previously called out Russia on account of militarization of the Kuril Islands by Russia and exerting military strength against Japan, substantiated by the fact that Russia has amended its constitution stating that the Kuril Islands form a formidable part of its sovereign territory. With the Russia- Ukraine war-waging and Putin’s administration showcasing the world that it's ready to use force to attain advantage in the conflict, it begs a question how the dynamics of Russia- Japan Kuril Island will change and develop. Analytically, this article will try to question and evaluate what the status- quo looks like for both the parties regarding the conflict and what are the potentialities of development for both parties.
“Northern territories (Kuril Islands) are territories to which the sovereignty of our country extends, they are also our ancestral territories. There are no changes in our position of this matter.”- Yoshimasa Hayashi, Japanese Foreign Minister[1].
Introduction: -
Russia- Ukraine war has amplified the global tensions to new heights since the end of the Cold war in 1991. Since the beginning of the war, Russia has showcased to the international community that it's not shying to be an aggressive state. Aggressive coercion is still legitimate in international relations and seemingly questioned the legitimacy of the existing international legal and institutional instruments. It should be clarified that Russia- the Ukraine war is not the first conflict since the end of the cold war. Israel- Palestine conflict, Syrian Civil War, Ethiopia’s civil war, are some of that examples that prove the notion of international relations continuing to operate on the metrics of war and conflict, albeit the intensification of this metric is nowhere near when the world was riddled with World Wars and Cold War.
Amidst the rising international hostility against Putin’s actions, countries that are engaged in some sort of diplomatic conflict with Russia have a peculiar position during this scenario. Japan, in this sort of scenario, comes out as a country of interest. On the context and historicity of the Russo- Japanese conflict on the Kuril Islands, an article published on 5th December 2021 on CESCUBE, should be referred to for a better understanding of the recent developments.
The dispute of the Kuril Islands between Russia and Japan have put the countries in a deadlock amongst each other. The Kuril Islands resonates similar historicity to the Ukrainian dispute. Even though the Kuril Islands lacks any immediate geographic contiguity to Japanese territory, islands running from Japan to Russia, separating the Okhotsk Sea from the Pacific Ocean, it was annexed by Russia after World War 2 and the southern part of the islands have been administered by Japanese sovereignty since the annexation (Jerusalem Post Staff, 2022). The previous Shinzo Abe administration in Japan had sought to improve the relations between the two sovereign countries by engaging in various economic and political relations i.e., eight-point economic cooperation (Shevchenko, 2022). Even though the six- decade long territorial dispute over ownership of the islands lacks a formal peace treaty to end their conflict, substantial gains were of cooperation were achieved on reaching towards peace negotiation (Jerusalem Post Staff, 2022). Abe’s administration mechanism relied on fostering trust to establish political and economic relations to settle the dust over the question of ownership of the Southern Kuril Islands.
Fumio Kishida, incumbent prime minister of Japan, is tackling the question of the Kuril Islands differently. The question of the ownership of the islands can startle the international community, regarding Russia’s current course of actions. The most sanctioned country in international relations will now be the most suspicious in global politics. The security dilemmas for Japan will certainly be revised.
The purpose of this article is to analyse this change of outlook in the Russia- Japan dispute of Kuril Islands. Certain questions will be necessary to answer in this article, focusing on how the issue of Kuril Islands will evolve from here. Should Japan start considering military tactics and manoeuvres to anticipate or deter any future threat from Moscow? Will Putin’s administration choose to intervene and military annexe the territories, as its ambitions in Ukraine? Where and how the Russian- Japanese relations will evolve from here? These answers will be categorically answered by first looking at the recent developments of the Southern Kuril Islands dispute and then analysing that how these actions have contributed to the conflict or whether it has escalated or de-escalated the contentious issues of the conflict.
Status Quo and the Kuril Islands Dispute: -
It’s contentious regarding what Putin principally wants to attain from this war. The diplomatic answers and responses from Moscow stick to a special operation that supposedly is trying to remove the neo-Nazi influence in Ukraine and restrict the NATO expansion in the region. Regardless of what Putin presents as justifications, one thing stands out the Russian attack on Ukraine has a particular resonance with the military tactics of annexing a country deployed during the epoch of World Wars. In that regard, the paranoia of countries like Japan, tied in a territorial conflict with Russia seems justified. Specifically, on 8th March 2022, Japan’s foreign minister, Yoshimasa Hayashi, declared and politically made it a fact that the Kuril Islands stand as an integral part of the country and are not in the sovereign domain of the Russian federation (Ryall, 2022). During a debate in the National Diet of Japan, the originality of Kuril Islands as an indistinguishable part of Japan was affirmed as the political and diplomatic stance of the Japanese delegation (Siripala, 2022). By establishing it on diplomatic and political grounds, Tokyo hopes to take a front foot into the issue and assert the fact that Russia does not engage in similar diplomatic bullying with the Japanese government. “Primordially Japanese[2]”, was the term that was used by the minister, which indicates the fact that Japan is ready to consider a strong and affirmative international stance on the issue. This affirmation is not new to the international context, but it certainly is interesting with the Japanese question is involved. Shinzo Abe’s policies on the Kuril Islands was focused on maintaining balanced diplomatic ties with the Russian delegation (Letman, 2022). Abe’s pragmatism was focused because the much-needed peace treaty regarding peace treaty, can only be achieved through a gradual development between the diplomatic ties of the countries.
Kishida administration has been vocal about the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Supportive of the Biden Administration’s tactic of diplomatically isolating the Russian administration, the Kishida administration since it entered the National Diet, has adopted a rather anti- Russian narrative as compared to Shinzo Abe (Toshuo Dokei, 2021). Japan has also ramped up its demand regarding the Kuril Islands insofar during the Russian invasion, stressing that Russia has violated the international order with its claim over the Islands as it violates the sovereign sanctity of the Japanese government. Not only exclusive to this month, in February 2022, but Japan had also started objecting to Russian military drills close to the Southern Kuril Islands as well as conducting firing drills near the Kunashir Islands (Ryall, 2022). Japanese diplomacy has always been critical of Russia's military developments in the islands. Even though under Shinzo Abe, the Japanese opposition was controlled. Under the current administration, the diplomatic channels have opted for open objections and problems to the military presence. In October 2021, Fumio Kishida, in a meeting with the upper house of the National Diet, Kishida affirmed its parliament that the subject matter of negotiations on the conclusion of a peace treaty with Russia will not be compromised with its ownership of the Kuril Islands (Toshuo Dokei, 2021). Kishida’s administration is focused on maintaining political and diplomatic consistency with the issue.
The Russian delegation has continued to be stable and firm on its historical stance, despite the open declarations of the Japanese government. Even though Russia is aware of the increasing claims that the Japanese government is making, they counter-argue these claims as a historic violation of the Japanese diplomatic position, interpreting it as an obstacle to the success of the peace- treaty (Kobara, 2022). Russia continues to believe that the matter was resolved in 1945 and stated that the peace treaty is ready if the territories are not being questioned anymore (Kobara, 2022). This indicates a new complication. The Ukrainian crisis is an affirmation that Russia will not bulge to any sort of pressure whether that is the national pressure of Kyiv, the rising NATO pressure or international moral pressure. The fact that remains is that Moscow gives unremarkable precedence to its constitutionally recognised territories. The complication in peace talks doesn’t automatically imply that international relations will be seeing a new inter-state conflict. What this implies is that the polarization of the Western lead countries and Russian narrative of anti-West can further increase, thereby decreasing any chance of peace talks, case in point Japan and Russia. Moscow has declared in the past that acts of aggression will be considered by the country if Japan is seen encroaching the territory. Though Russia has declared that it will not reject further negotiations, the question stands that after the actions of the Japanese government, how constructive will be the negotiations.
Contextualizing Russo- Japanese Complications: -
The complications will be expected from the Russo- Japanese negotiations on the Kuril Islands dispute. Complications can be divided into two halves. Firstly, complications can arise out of the fact that how Japan has reacted towards the Ukrainian conflict. Russia has adopted a harsh stance against counties that have taken a diplomatic and political stance against Moscow and continue to support the Ukrainian republic. The delusion that the international community is supporting the neo-Nazi regime in Ukraine, led to Putin increasing his paranoia. Currently, Japan has frozen more than dozens of financial assets related to Russian and Belarusian governments and oligarchs, a trend that is being adopted by a lot of countries to weaponize globalization against Russia and Belarus (Siripala, 2022). The latest sanctions target 20 Russians, including deputy chiefs of staff for Putin’s administration, the head of the Chechen Republic, and executives of companies with close ties to the Kremlin such as Volga Group, Trans-Neft and Wagner (Siripala, 2022). What Japan is trying to target with these financial sanctions is that any individual or an entity-based payment will now require a direct authorisation from the Japanese government, giving the full financial and capital control to Tokyo.
Banning exports of Russia-bound oil refinery equipment and Belarus-bound general-purpose items that could be used by its military, banning exports to the Belarusian defence ministry, armed forces, and police organisations, as well as a Minsk-based company, JSC Integral are actions taken by Tokyo just after a raft of sanctions against Russia, including measures targeting the country’s central bank and its access to the SWIFT international payments system (Shandilya, 2022). Japanese carmakers including Toyota have also halted exports to Russia, while Japanese airlines have suspended flights to Europe, amid logistical issues and safety concerns (Tasnim News Agency , 2022 ). Not limiting to that, the Kishida administration looks to suspend the issuance of visas and freeze the assets of individuals linked to the pro-Russian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk (Tasnim News Agency , 2022 ). A trade ban will also be imposed on imports and exports to the separatist regions as well as a ban on the issuance and circulation of new sovereign bonds by the Russian government in Japan. This is a major step for the Japanese government as even though Japan has affirmed its stance towards the moral obligations that Russia has violated, Abe’s administration trade and economic talks will take a direct hit under the Kishida administration. This is a major step for Japan. Since the Crimea war of 2014, Japan has taken one of the most drastic measures in terms of condemning another country and trying to convince Russia into a ceasefire against Ukraine[3]. What Japan also is trying to do is that by taking strong financial and diplomatic actions against Russia, it trying to set a precedent in the international relations for Indo- Pacific and Asia countries into adopting a concrete stance against the diplomatic and moral violations of Moscow.
Secondly, complications can arise if Russia decides to see these actions as a long-term problem for Russo- Japanese relations. The Russian ambassador to Japan, Mikhail Galuzin, warned against sanctions and said it would have an “opposite effect” and could undermine relations with Japan. Shinzo Abe’s ability was praised because he was able to create a stable diplomatic channel with Putin’s government and continue it for a long term (Shandilya, 2022). Japan is seen as the strongest ally of the United States of America in the Indo- Pacific. The establishment of the QUAD is not only a threat to China but is also a threat to Russian forces as well. The Kuril Islands is a dispute which is not at all isolated. West aligns with the Japanese on this issue. Following this logic, what Russia can see is not only a diplomatic intervention or stance by Tokyo alone but a joint intervention by the United States and Japan into the Kuril Islands. This is necessary to consider for this argumentation because Russia’s argumentation for the Crimean annexation and continued resilience towards NATO expansion was one of the main arguments why Russia wanted to control the political dynamics of Ukraine. During the Crimean crisis in 2014, Tokyo banned five major Russian banks from raising funds in Japan and the current sanctions have been seen as an upgrade by the Japanese in terms of its sanctioning capacity (Kobara, 2022). Energy sanctions can also play a considerable as Japan imports 12 % of its thermal coal and 10 % of its LNG from Russia (Al Jazeera, 2022 ). Kishida has argued that the sanctions do not pose a risk to Japan’s immediate energy supply and the focus will diplomatically pressurize the Russian government into a cease-fire. When Kishida took power in October last year, his greatest foreign policy challenge was the intensifying confrontation between China and Japan’s main ally, the United States (Siripala, 2022). But worsening relations with Russia could see Moscow play a more dominant role in Japan’s foreign diplomacy mix (Shevchenko, 2022). If Russia decides to mount pressure on the Japanese on the grounds of the Kuril Islands dispute, Japan could find itself in a difficult position on its sovereign position.
Conclusion: -
How will the dynamics of Russo- Japanese relations evolve? For the time being, the Japanese government will continue to stand as a persistent objector to the Russian delegation. By focusing on providing diplomatic support and financially curbing Russia's assets, Japan will try and continue to diplomatically isolate Moscow. But the question of the Kuril Islands hangs in the balance between the diplomatic tensions of Japan and Russia. What the international community can expect is that Japan continuing to exert force upon the inclusion of Kuril Islands under its sovereign territory on a level that was not seen during Shinzo Abe’s regime. Kishida has proved in fact that Japan is now ready to take an active political and diplomatic stance on the Kuril Islands and looking at the recent attempts of coercion by Putin, Tokyo will be focused on affirming its diplomatic strength on the islands. What will be a continued question is whether Japan will seek to involve other diplomatic actors in asserting its value and claim over the Kuril Islands. Currently, Kuril Islands stands as a bi-lateral territorial conflict between Russia and Japan. But the Ukrainian conflict proves one point that countries engaging in diplomatic conflicts with other countries will certainly be considering creating stronger multilateral partnerships to avoid similar events like Ukraine- Russia. Japan on that ground might consider a similar plight or a reference by which it will decide to exert considerable pressure on Moscow and Putin on the Kuril Islands. Russia- Ukraine crisis has not degraded international affairs.
The 21st-century international community was never completely free of war and conflicts. This narrative of the war in civilized countries and continents has started this discussion that the world has gone back to the pre- cold war era. But what will be a definite consequence of the war will in fact that the international community will be more paranoid and concerned about its territoriality. Globalization and globalism had countries and individuals convinced that the era of conflict has surpassed, and diplomatic passage will be the only contentious issue remaining. But looking at Moscow’s actions, the Japanese decision to reaffirm its sovereign stance on the Kuril Islands stands as an inevitable consequence.
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Endnotes
[1] S. Jha. (2022). “Japan says Kuril Islands ‘primordially Japanese’, Russia’s Occupation Against Int’l order”. RepublicWorld.
[2] Ibid.
[3] Ibid.
Pic Courtsey-Nicki Eliza at unsplash.com
(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)
