China’s Zero-COVID Policy:

Under this programme, localities in China were instructed to conduct rigorous lockdowns and adhere to strict isolation measures even when the number of cases were reported were low. The plan's goal was to prevent any further infections so that the virus could be eradicated and normal social and economic activities could be resumed in the country [2]. Draconian measures were being put in place to eradicate the virus, including isolating people and dividing families when someone tested positive. These tactics were causing emotional upheaval among the general public due to the prolonged period of separation in addition to delayed necessary medical care due to administrative errors.

Public Resentment:

There were also accounts of situations in which people complained regarding the oppressive approach of the government. Public disagreement with the government's strategy was initially limited, and many people expressed pride in their nation for being able to keep cases to nearly zero. However, as the virus spread more rapidly, and the severity of lockdowns grew, numerous cities saw protests as a result of growing public resentment. The Chinese authorities, however, had refuted all accusations and stressed upon the necessity of the policies for saving lives. [3].

Public challenges post-Omicron variant outbreak:

China managed to maintain the Zero-COVID streak for two years, but when the Omicron variant reached its peak with more than 8,000 deaths, the government was unable to continue. The elderly residents who had not received vaccinations were among those most susceptible to this extremely contagious variant. Due to the widespread belief that the risks associated with vaccinations outweigh the chance of contracting Covid-19, the majority of residents were reluctant to become immunised. For China, politics are equally as important as public health, and occasionally it becomes crucial for them to demonstrate that their choices are better than those made by the West [4]. Since there were fewer deaths in China than everywhere else in the globe during the early years of the pandemic, it was praised as the ideal model. Therefore, shifting course would suggest that the model was doomed from the start, harming Xi Jinping's legacy.

Beijing has been experimenting with ways to reduce the economic uncertainty the zero-COVID policy causes while staying committed to it. For instance, officials in Shenzhen used a more constrained shutdown than in some other cities and used a "closed-loop" mechanism to allow select industries to remain open. The reaction to the strict lockdown also demonstrates how the Communist Party faces new dangers from maintaining Zero-COVID. The lockdown sparked an extraordinary amount of public outcry, both publically and online on social media, as well as opposition to some of the program's most extreme components, like separating parents from their children who have tested positive for COVID-19. Residents' suffering from a lack of food and other needs caused sympathy and worry throughout China and the rest of the globe, which contributed to the negative perception of China's approach in tackling the pandemic.

Technical Challenges:

The "Zero-COVID" strategy was based on two presumptions: that SARS-CoV-2 could be destroyed totally and that the pandemic's trajectory would be similar to the SARS epidemic of 2002–2003 which ended with the disappearance of the pathogen and evolved into a variant which was non-lethal for humans. Both theories have been disproven more than two years later [5]. The majority of the world's population is becoming more resistant to COVID-19 due to multiple outbreaks and immunisations, but at a cost of at least 6 million fatalities globally. However, despite a widespread vaccination programme that supposedly protected more than 89% of the population of the nation, the Chinese citizens are still just as susceptible to it as it was in the first half of 2020. The absence of universal immunity is caused, among other things, by the vaccination program's sole reliance on local vaccines, which, even at the stage of clinical trials, demonstrated significantly poorer efficacy and shorter duration of immunity than Western vaccines. The low 61% immunisation rate in the 80+ age range is another issue, however, separating the populace from the coronavirus has also contributed to it. As a result, there has not only been no widespread acquisition of immunity by vaccination, but also no transmission of immunity acquired through vaccination due to the lack of interaction of vaccinated individuals with the virus. Therefore, straying from a "Zero-COVID" strategy runs the risk of a quick progression of succeeding waves of infection with new SARS-CoV-2 variants, which have a greater reproduction rate because they emerged outside of China in a population with acquired immunity. The Omicron BA.5 sub-variant, which was behind the spike in cases around the world, arrived in China in July of 2022. Because of this variant, even though mainland China was only tracking hundreds of new infections, the numbers kept on rising.

Political Challenges:

The Communist Party seemed helpless to address the growing issues, both in terms of the escalating humanitarian crises and the irate public response. The response to severe lockdown indicates another new threat the Communist Party faces due to Zero-COVID. In addition to criticism to some of the program's most harsh elements, such as separating parents from their children who have tested positive for COVID-19, the lockdown caused an exceptional amount of physical and online public protest. China and the rest of the world sympathised with the people who were suffering from a lack of food and other necessities, which added to the impression that China's administration was becoming more ruthless and authoritative. Both in terms of the worsening humanitarian difficulties and the outraged public response, the Communist Party appeared powerless to solve the issues [6].

In that regard, Zero-COVID has highlighted both China's political and social system's advantages and disadvantages. Few other governments in the world had the means or the inclination to match what China was able to do in order to impose a level of societal control during a crisis. However, as is the case with authoritarian governments more generally, China's government is constrained by the lack of public participation in politics and policymaking, which results in rigid policy. The Chinese Communist Party's claim that it alone can bring prosperity to the Chinese people is being challenged by the economic crisis caused by this rigidity. Additionally, Zero-COVID was touted as a symbol of Chinese superiority by its proponents, but the tactic may also prove to be one of the system's greatest challenges.

Economic Challenges:

The Zero-COVID policy in China had its advantages, particularly in reducing the death rate, but there were also significant expenses. The government's much-lauded efforts to rebalance growth was set back by the policy, leaving the economy with severe permanent damages. All forms of economic activity were hampered by the irregular and oppressive lockdowns, but household consumption and the services industry were particularly heavily damaged. Up until recently, industrial activity remained largely stable, but employment growth has lagged and the unemployment rate has risen significantly [7].

China today deals with more challenging internal and external conditions. A key element of household wealth and a major engine of economic growth, real estate is currently experiencing a downturn. Exporting its way out of a crisis is not a viable option as the rest of the globe grapples with recessionary threats. The recent meeting between US president Joe Biden and Chinese president Xi Jinping went well, but it is evident that USA has no intention of relaxing its limits on technology exports, which is most crucial among Chinese needs. Contrary to other major countries, China's inflation rate is low and steadily declining. The People's Bank of China has loosened monetary policy but has more room for improvement. But if interest rate differentials with the US continue to expand, it has been constrained by worries about financial risks and capital outflows. Measures to lower taxes and boost spending in line with the switch to renewable energy could help boost domestic demand and aid in the rebalancing of growth. However, this will necessitate the development of a better financial system that allocates resources to the economy's more productive sectors, the freedom of private enterprise from arbitrary government interference, and a strong human capital base of workers who are proficient in emerging technologies.

Each of these factors has suffered due to concerns about a potential transition toward a more command-driven economy as well as policy uncertainty.

Response from China:

China started implementing a "dynamic zero-COVID" policy last year to replace its strict zero-tolerance posture. A city will no longer be placed under lockdown due to a few isolated diseases. Instead, when more than two new cases are discovered in a town within 14 days, lockdown measures would be targeted at particular communities rather than entire cities or provinces are quickly implemented [8]. Under this, there would be more adaptable preventive approaches, as opposed to city-wide lockdowns which would strive to find a balance between disease control and allowing people to live regular lives.

Conclusion:

It is currently difficult to predict the political and economic repercussions of the Zero-COVID policy's failure. The chaotic nature of Chinese domestic affairs is evidence that Xi and the CPC failed to foresee the necessity of changing course and to manage the transformation more effectively. The Chinese economy might experience a brief, severe interruption before stabilising. China's reopening after three years of isolation may actually spark an economic boom with global repercussions. The CPC hopes that this will help people move past their Zero-COVID trauma, but given the way it has handled the pandemic there may be long-lasting political repercussions. The CPC’s along with Xi Jinping's credibility would be negatively impacted by this.

Further, China would need to immunise a lot more of its people, especially the frail elderly who are more susceptible to the virus, and significantly upgrade its healthcare system in order to go beyond Zero-COVID. Given these difficulties, the Chinese government is forced to decide between loosening the Zero-COVID regulations and running the risk of a high infection and death rate, or continuing on the existing course and running the risk of sustaining public dissatisfaction, irritation, and rage.

Endnotes:

1.      George F Gao, “Active case finding with case management: the key to tackling the COVID-19 pandemic”, National Library of Medicine, 10 July 2020 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7272157/

2.      “What is China’s zero Covid Policy”, Hindustan Times, 24 July 2022 https://www.hindustantimes.com/ht-insight/public-health/what-is-china-s-zero-covid-policy-101656065706406.html

3.      “What is China’s ‘Zero-COVID’ Policy?” Voa News, 28 November 2022 https://www.voanews.com/a/what-is-china-s-zero-covid-policy-/6854291.html

4.      “What is China’s zero Covid Policy”, Hindustan Times, 24 July 2022 https://www.hindustantimes.com/ht-insight/public-health/what-is-china-s-zero-covid-policy-101656065706406.html

5.      Michal Bogusz, “China: the consequences of the ‘zero COVID’ strategy”, Centre for Eastern Studies, 27 July 2022 https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-commentary/2022-07-27/china-consequences-zero-covid-strategy

6.      Jeremy Mark and Michael Schuman, “China's Faltering "Zero COVID" Policy: Politics in Command, Economy in Reverse”, Geoeconomic Center, Atlantic Council, April 2022 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Chinas-Faltering-Zero-COVID-Policy-Politics-in-Command-Economy-in-Reverse.pdf

7.      Eswar Prasad, “Despite abandoning zero-Covid, China’s economic challenges are huge”, Financial Times, 16 December 2022 https://www.ft.com/content/66d80ae3-083e-4fcb-a81c-2fed56b16b99

8.      Chen Gang, “China Stands by Its Zero-COVID Policy As Omicron Rages on in Shanghai”, Commentary, East Asian Institute, National University of Singapore, 08 April 2022 https://research.nus.edu.sg/eai/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2022/06/EAIC-48-20220408-3.pdf

Pic Courtsey-Ling Tang at unsplash.com

(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)