China-Russia-Pakistan Axis: Concerns for India
Ever since its formation, India has been dealing with alliance adversaries of all kinds from one end or the other. The cold war paved way for the Non-Aligned Movement that sharply defined India’s approach on the global scale, and the wars that unfolded in its neighbourhood carved out a clear distinction of friend and enemy states. However, the only thing static in international relations is the fact that it is “not static at all”. Following the realist understanding, or even a slight liberalist approach both would spell out that “states act according to their self-interest”, and therefore, “there are no permanent friends or enemies in the international domain”.
This realisation has been manifested in the Asian conundrum as well. Pakistan, which has been a dear ally of the United States throughout the cold war tensions is slowly drifting away and siding with the remerging Russia. This development has been coupled with its forever strong ties with India’s hostile neighbour China. Put together, these states form a triple alliance, that is, Russia-China-Pakistan, each one of which has a history of bittersweet relations with India.
Russia expressed and extended support to India all this while especially in the matters of Kashmir, but its growing proximity towards Pakistan has been sending tremors down the line. Russia signed a prominent treaty with Pakistan that lifted the arms trade ban. This “military agreement” engulfed better cooperation on the politico-military front, collaboration in defence and counter-terrorism, along doing business. Likewise, Russia’s not so friendly relation with the West over Ukraine, and its annexation of Crimea has pushed it closer to China who has been serving a similar fate owing to its adversaries in the South China Sea. Hence, all these three states, whose leaders have been hawkish end up being together to counter India, which shares the same aspiration of being a Super Power. Albeit, whether this alliance which has been forced to form by external factors with countries who has been at odds with others will survive or not is a question that only time, and the response India gives will decide.
Apart from the Indian factor, another threat that brings these countries on a single platform is their current perception of the United States. The US has never shied from propagating its policy of containment, and it has been in full swing for Russia earlier, and China now. This nudges China, which aims for global dominance to bring a strong alliance at least in Asia. The strongest link of this trilateral alliance is that of China and Pakistan. They have been each other ‘all-weather ally’, with China aiding Pakistan against India, helping it to develop the nuclear reactors, supplying its defence equipment, and developing fighter jets. Furthermore, China’s heavy investment in Gwadar Port in the Karakoram corridor speaks volumes for this association. Their bonhomie has been pitched against the growing closeness that India and United States share. Their trade ties, military and strategic cooperation have been on a rise, and QUAD is the finest explanation for it. It at first counters the growing axis of China-Pakistan-Russia, and simultaneously, acts as a stimulus to pull them together. Nevertheless, India too has been expanding its base to be subtle in its countering as it is using U.S and Israel for its military supply and not solely relying on Russia. In addition, India has been trying to make it explicit and obvious by using diplomatic channels and means to keep Russia in the loop. However, a balancing at this moment depicts the tilt that Russia has towards the China-Pakistan faction for more reasons than one.
The crisis that has unfolded in Afghanistan has further compelled these three powers to come together in unison. The fading role of the United States with suspicion of it using IS who are being sent to Afghanistan via Syria to work as a proxy. This creates a problem for Pakistan as continued unrest in its immediate neighbour would bring home equal trouble, and would fuel the separatist tendencies in the region. Therefore, to root for a stable Afghanistan, Pakistan would exploit its friendship with China and Russia to the fullest, a cause that can be seen developing as there occurs growing consensus for “recognising Taliban”. All of it put together mounts enormous pressure on India on all fronts. On the one end, after prolonged involvement and confidence-building measures in Afghanistan, it can’t turn a blind eye to the crisis or hand over the reins to the neighbouring trio. India can’t afford to let go of the Afghan equation from its influence. Likewise, the other cause that needs continuous attention and response from the Indian side is the hostile nature of China and Pakistan over its boundary question.
India needs to be on its toes and look out for a strategic balancing where it maintains its ties with its old friend Russia, given till date they share trade for roughly $10 billion along with the agreements on the supply for S-400 missile defence system which is summed at $5.2billion, four frigates for $950 million and a nuclear power submarine that would replace INS Chakra. Moreover, they have held continued summits since 2000, and have caught each other bilaterally during multilateral summits. These feats while reassures that India still has its stakes in the Russian circuit, it also needs to take into account the picture that Russia is “willingly” indulging with Pakistan on matters at all levels. Furthermore, Russia fills the void of the United States in the Pakistan equation by supplying them with technology, while China has been the economic facilitator. In return, Pakistan has a young population and market, a feat that it shares with India. Moreover, a factor that equalises the equation is “nuclear weapons”. All four states involved in this equation have nuclear powers, and if put together for China-Russia-Pakistan, they account for 7,602 which bluntly outnumbers India. Similarly, saving Pakistan, both Russia and China are permanent members of the UN Security Council, hence giving an undue advantage to Pakistan. This equation puts India’s security aspect into question. A possible way out is, strengthening its ties with the QUAD that would work for Balance of Power, while rigorously advancing its military capabilities and capacities that would generate the necessary deterrence. Lastly, a diplomatic approach with Russia owing to their “cold war friendship”, and a market-led economic approach to keep China in the loop will help bring down the adversarial impact of this nourishing bond of Russia-China-Pakistan.
References
1. China, Russia, Pakistan joining hands on Afghan Problem: Report, The Economic Times, July 2018.
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/sign-of-worry-for-india-china-russia-pakistan-joining-hands-on-afghan-problem-says-report/articleshow/57985232.cms
2. China On its Side, Pakistan Going All Out To Woo Russia; Counter India-Alliance, The Eurasian Times, July 2020.
https://eurasiantimes.com/china-on-its-side-pakistan-going-all-out-to-woo-russia-counter-india-u
3. Russia, China and Pakistan: An Emerging New Axis?, The Diplomat, July 2015.
https://thediplomat.com/2015/08/russia-china-and-pakistan-an-emerging-new-axis/
4. India Anxious, as Russia, China, Pakistan May Build Strategic Alliance? The Eurasian Times, August 2018.
https://eurasiantimes.com/russia-pakistan-india-china/
5. China, Russia and Pakistan: New Superpower Triangle, South Asian Journal, October 2016.
http://southasiajournal.net/china-russia-and-pakistan-new-superpower-triangle/
Pic Courtesy-Joel Heard at unsplash.com
(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)
