Charting China's New Normal: Insights from the 2024 National People's Congress

An overview of the meeting:

The annual convening of China's National People's Congress (NPC) stands as a hallmark event in the nation's political calendar, symbolizing the apex of political deliberation and policy formulation within the world's most populous nation. Historically, the NPC has served as a platform for the Communist Party of China (CPC) to reaffirm its leadership, unveil policy initiatives, and chart the course for the nation's socio-economic development[1]. However, the 2024 NPC unfolded against a backdrop of unique circumstances, characterized by both procedural anomalies and substantive shifts in policy emphasis, reflecting the intricate interplay of domestic imperatives and global challenges shaping China's governance landscape.

Amidst growing economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, the 2024 NPC assumed heightened significance as a barometer of China's resilience and adaptability in the face of mounting challenges. Notably, the absence of customary personnel announcements and Premier Li Qiang's post-speech press conference marked departures from established norms, prompting speculation about the underlying dynamics driving China's political elite and the evolving contours of power within the CPC[2]. Against this backdrop of political intrigue, the NPC's substantive agenda and policy pronouncements offer crucial insights into China's strategic imperatives and policy priorities in an increasingly complex global landscape. From recalibrating economic targets to reaffirming commitments to indigenous innovation and high-quality international engagement, the NPC's deliberations provide a window into China's efforts to navigate a rapidly changing world order while safeguarding its core interests and asserting its role as a global power.

As China embarks on a new phase of development marked by economic rebalancing and geopolitical recalibration, the 2024 NPC emerges as a pivotal moment in the nation's trajectory, offering valuable insights into the challenges and opportunities shaping China's governance landscape in the 21st century. Through a comprehensive analysis of the NPC's proceedings and policy pronouncements, this essay seeks to unravel the intricacies of China's political dynamics and shed light on the nation's evolving role in an ever-changing global order.

A Deeper Insight into China's 2024 National People's Congress

China's 2024 National People's Congress (NPC) broke away from the traditional norm, presenting notable departures from previous sessions. Typically characterized as a rubber-stamping exercise, the NPC's condensed duration, absence of personnel announcements, and the Premier's avoidance of questions signal significant shifts in China's political landscape[3]. Amidst continued economic malaise and domestic political challenges, the NPC convened against a backdrop of uncertainty. The vagueness of the GDP growth target for 2024, set at 'around 5%', underscores cautious optimism amid economic headwinds[4]. The absence of a scheduled Third Plenum, traditionally a platform for setting major economic policies and reforms, further exacerbates uncertainty[5]. Historical trends reveal that the NPC often serves as a stage for projecting stability, yet the 2024 session unfolds against a backdrop of unresolved economic challenges and delayed policy announcements, indicating potential turbulence ahead.

Speculation surrounding personnel announcements and the delayed appointment of key figures, such as the foreign minister and defence minister, reflects President Xi Jinping's personalized control over Party procedures[6]. These deviations from tradition suggest a consolidation of power within a smaller circle of Xi's trusted allies, potentially fostering groupthink and centralization of decision-making. Drawing from historical precedents, such as Mao Zedong's consolidation of power during the Cultural Revolution, parallels can be drawn to Xi's efforts to assert authority and centralize control over Party mechanisms.

Despite economic challenges, China's international policies remain robust, albeit with a nuanced shift in focus. The emphasis on a 'high-quality' Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), digital innovation, and green technology underscores China's commitment to strategic global engagement[7]. Concurrently, efforts to bolster indigenous innovation highlight China's bid for self-reliance in the face of external constraints[8]. Drawing parallels with China's historical emphasis on self-reliance during periods of geopolitical isolation, such as the Maoist era and the Cold War, sheds light on the strategic imperatives driving China's contemporary foreign policy agenda.

China's increased diplomatic spending, despite slower economic growth, underscores its unwavering commitment to foreign policy ambitions. Wang Yi's foreign-policy press conference emphasized strategic partnerships, particularly with Russia, while critiquing Western actions and advocating for a multipolar world order. However, declining Western investment and concerns over IP protection pose challenges to China's efforts to attract foreign capital[9]. Examining historical patterns of diplomatic spending and the geopolitical context of China's rise as a global power provides insights into the strategic calculations driving its budgetary priorities.

Notable remarks on reunification from both Premier Li and Foreign Minister Wang Yi suggest a firm stance on cross-strait relations[10]. Despite subtle shifts in rhetoric, China reaffirms its commitment to peaceful reunification while emphasizing the inevitability of the One China principle. The increase in defence spending signals a prioritization of military modernization amid regional tensions. Historical analysis of China's military posture and cross-strait relations, particularly during periods of heightened tension such as the Taiwan Strait Crises, offers context for understanding China's contemporary strategic imperatives.

Analysing “the Revised State Council Organic Law”[11]

The revision of the State Council Organic Law during China's National People’s Congress (NPC) meeting reflects not only a procedural update but also deeper structural and ideological considerations within the Chinese governance system. While the changes may seem superficial at first glance, a closer examination reveals significant implications for China's political landscape, governance structure, and the role of the Communist Party.

Symbolism and Party Leadership:

At its core, the revision underscores the Communist Party's entrenched role in China's political system. Article 3 of the revised law explicitly mandates the State Council's adherence to Party leadership and ideological principles[12]. This provision codifies the Party's dominance over state institutions, aligning with the Party's longstanding commitment to maintaining control over all aspects of governance. While such assertions of Party authority may seem redundant given its de facto supremacy, enshrining them in law reinforces the Party's ideological primacy and serves as a symbolic assertion of its legitimacy.

Reinforcement of Centralized Authority:

The revised law reinforces the centralized authority of the State Council, emphasizing its role as the highest organ of state administration. Article 2 clarifies the Council's constitutional status, aligning it with the highest organ of state power[13]. This reaffirmation of centralized authority is consistent with broader trends under President Xi Jinping, who has centralized power within the Party and state apparatus. By consolidating authority at the top, China aims to streamline decision-making processes, enhance governance efficiency, and maintain social and political stability.

Transparency and Accountability Measures:

While the revision may appear to be primarily symbolic, it includes provisions aimed at enhancing transparency and accountability within the State Council. Articles 16 to 18 emphasize the importance of democratic decision-making, administrative oversight, and adherence to legal norms[14]. These provisions reflect China's ongoing efforts to improve governance effectiveness and address concerns about corruption and bureaucratic inefficiency. By promoting transparency and accountability, China seeks to enhance public trust in government institutions and strengthen the legitimacy of Party rule.

Coordination and Efficiency:

The revised law also emphasizes the need for coordination and efficiency within the State Council. Articles 19 and 20 underscore the importance of cooperation among different departments and bodies to implement government policies effectively[15]. This focus on coordination reflects China's recognition of the complex challenges it faces, including economic restructuring, social development, and environmental sustainability. By promoting coordination and efficiency, China aims to overcome bureaucratic obstacles and achieve its policy objectives more effectively.

China and the Future: Navigating Challenges and Shaping Global Dynamics

As China navigates the complexities of its 2024 National People's Congress (NPC), it confronts a myriad of challenges that will shape its future trajectory. From economic uncertainties to geopolitical tensions, China's actions reverberate far beyond its borders, impacting countries like India, the US, Russia, and the EU. Understanding China's strategies, challenges, and global implications is crucial for charting a way forward in an increasingly interconnected world.

Challenges Facing China: China's economic challenges loom large on the horizon, exacerbated by domestic political uncertainties and external pressures. The vagueness of the GDP growth target reflects the difficulty in sustaining robust economic expansion amid structural shifts and global headwinds. Moreover, rising labor costs, demographic shifts, and technological disruptions pose formidable challenges to China's growth model, necessitating comprehensive reforms to ensure long-term sustainability[16].

Geopolitically, China faces escalating tensions with key global players, including the US, over issues ranging from trade disputes to territorial claims in the South China Sea[17]. The lack of clarity surrounding cross-strait relations with Taiwan adds another layer of complexity to China's foreign policy calculus, risking regional instability and potential conflict[18]. Additionally, China's assertive posture in the Indo-Pacific region has elicited concerns among neighbouring countries, fuelling strategic competition and geopolitical rivalries[19].

Global Implications of NPC 2024

The outcomes of China's 2024 National People's Congress (NPC) will reverberate across the globe, influencing the strategic calculations and policy priorities of key stakeholders, including the United States, India, the European Union (EU), and Russia. The decisions made and the directions set during the NPC have the potential to shape geopolitical dynamics, trade relations, and regional stability in significant ways.

United States:

For the United States, China's NPC holds profound implications for the ongoing strategic competition between the two superpowers. The NPC's focus on bolstering indigenous innovation and technological prowess underscores China's ambition to challenge American dominance in key sectors such as artificial intelligence and green technology[20]. As China continues to invest heavily in research and development, the United States faces heightened pressure to maintain its technological edge and preserve its leadership in the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Moreover, China's assertive foreign policy stance, as articulated in Premier Li Qiang's speech and Foreign Minister Wang Yi's press conference, presents challenges for U.S. policymakers[21]. The emphasis on strategic partnerships, particularly with Russia, and the critique of U.S. actions as undermining global stability signal China's intention to counter American influence and shape the geopolitical landscape in its favour[22].

India:

In India, the outcomes of China's NPC are closely watched for their impact on bilateral relations and regional dynamics. China's economic slowdown and structural reforms, as reflected in the vague GDP growth target and delayed Third Plenum, may have implications for India's economic engagement with its neighbour. While economic cooperation remains significant, geopolitical tensions, particularly along the disputed border, continue to strain bilateral relations. Additionally, China's strategic initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its growing influence in South Asia pose challenges for India's regional security and strategic autonomy. India must navigate these dynamics carefully, balancing its economic interests with its strategic imperatives and leveraging partnerships with like-minded countries to counterbalance China's influence.

European Union:

The European Union (EU) grapples with balancing economic opportunities with strategic concerns in its relationship with China. While China remains a vital trading partner for the EU, concerns over human rights abuses, unfair trade practices, and technological competition persist- factors that are likely to be exacerbated by the outcomes of China's NPC. The NPC's emphasis on technological innovation and self-reliance may fuel concerns in the EU about China's growing dominance in critical technologies and its potential to undermine European competitiveness. As the EU seeks to assert its strategic autonomy and uphold its values, it must engage with China from a position of strength, addressing areas of contention while seeking cooperation on shared challenges such as climate change and global health.

Russia:

Russia views China as a strategic partner in countering Western hegemony and advancing multipolarism. The burgeoning Sino-Russian alliance, characterized by economic cooperation and diplomatic alignment, challenges the traditional balance of power and shapes the geopolitics of Eurasia[23]. China's NPC outcomes, particularly its emphasis on strategic partnerships and multipolarity, further solidify the Sino-Russian axis and enhance Russia's strategic leverage vis-à-vis the West[24]. As Russia navigates its complex relationship with China, it must balance its interests in maintaining regional stability and promoting its own influence with the imperatives of preserving its sovereignty and independence.

China's Post-2024 NPC: A Realist Perspective on Strategic Engagement

China's 2024 National People's Congress (NPC) has significant implications not only for its domestic governance but also for the global geopolitical landscape. As China consolidates its power and asserts its influence, stakeholders worldwide must adopt a pragmatic and realistic approach to engage with the evolving dynamics. Drawing inspiration from the realist paradigm of international relations, this essay explores a strategic framework for navigating China's trajectory post the 2024 NPC, considering the interests of key players such as the United States, India, the European Union, and Russia.

1.      Maintaining Strategic Autonomy:

At the heart of China's foreign policy lies a quest for strategic autonomy, characterized by efforts to safeguard its core interests and assert its influence on the global stage. From a realist perspective, engaging with China necessitates recognizing its pursuit of power and autonomy. As such, stakeholders must approach China from a position of strength, safeguarding their own national interests while seeking areas of cooperation where mutual benefits can be derived.

2.     Balancing Competition and Cooperation:

The inevitability of competition with China across economic, technological, and geopolitical domains underscores the need for a balanced approach that prioritizes areas of cooperation. While strategic rivalry is inevitable, pragmatic engagement requires identifying common ground on issues such as climate change mitigation, global health security, and non-proliferation efforts. By striking a balance between competition and cooperation, stakeholders can mitigate the risks of conflict while capitalizing on opportunities for collaboration.

3.     Managing Strategic Rivalry:

The intensifying strategic rivalry between China and its counterparts necessitates a nuanced approach to managing tensions and avoiding escalation. Realist principles advocate for investing in military capabilities, strengthening alliances and partnerships, and bolstering deterrence measures to counterbalance China's growing assertiveness. By maintaining a credible deterrent posture and avoiding actions that could provoke conflict, stakeholders can manage strategic rivalry without compromising stability.

4.     Economic Engagement with Caution:

Economic engagement with China presents both opportunities and challenges, requiring a cautious and pragmatic approach. While economic interdependence is inevitable, stakeholders must guard against the risks posed by China's state-centric economic model, unfair trade practices, and intellectual property theft. Realist principles dictate a balanced approach that protects domestic industries while promoting fair competition and market access, thereby mitigating the risks associated with economic entanglement.

5.     Promoting Norms and Values:

Upholding universal norms and values, including human rights, democracy, and rule of law, is essential in engagements with China. Realists recognize the importance of advocating for transparency, accountability, and adherence to international law while engaging with China on issues of mutual concern. By promoting norms and values that underpin the rules-based international order, stakeholders can exert moral and diplomatic pressure on China to uphold global standards of governance.

6.     Seeking Diplomatic Channels:

Diplomatic engagement with China through multilateral forums and track-two dialogues provides avenues for addressing areas of contention and building mutual understanding. Realist principles emphasize the importance of fostering open communication channels to de-escalate tensions, manage crises, and prevent misunderstandings. By leveraging diplomatic channels effectively, stakeholders can navigate the complexities of the China challenge while promoting stability and cooperation in the international system.

7.     Investing in Strategic Resilience:

Building strategic resilience against China's economic coercion and geopolitical pressure tactics requires diversifying supply chains, reducing dependence on Chinese technology, and enhancing cybersecurity measures. Realists advocate for pragmatic investments in strategic resilience to mitigate the risks posed by China's assertiveness. By fortifying their economic and technological infrastructure, stakeholders can safeguard their autonomy and mitigate vulnerabilities to Chinese influence.

8.     Pragmatic Engagement in Global Governance:

Engaging pragmatically in global governance institutions enables stakeholders to shape the international order in a manner that accommodates China's rising influence while safeguarding their own interests. Realists advocate for inclusive multilateralism that accommodates diverse interests and promotes collective action on global challenges. By pursuing pragmatic engagement in global governance, stakeholders can harness the benefits of international cooperation while managing the challenges posed by China's ascent.

As China asserts its influence on the global stage, navigating its trajectory post the 2024 NPC requires a realistic and pragmatic approach. By maintaining strategic autonomy, balancing competition and cooperation, managing strategic rivalry, engaging with caution, promoting norms and values, seeking diplomatic channels, investing in strategic resilience, and pursuing pragmatic engagement in global governance, stakeholders can effectively navigate the complexities of the China challenge while promoting stability and cooperation in the international system.

End Notes

[1] “China’s State Organizational Structure | Congressional-Executive Commission on China.” 2022. Cecc.gov. 2022. https://www.cecc.gov/chinas-state-organizational-structure.

[2] Bloomberg. 2024. “China Scraps Premier Li Qiang’s Briefing, Breaking Years of Convention.” Business Standard. Business Standard. March 4, 2024. https://www.business-standard.com/world-news/china-scraps-premier-li-qiang-s-briefing-breaking-years-of-convention-124030400662_1.html.

[3] Rowlands, Lyndal. 2024. “Five Key Takeaways from China’s Annual Meeting of Parliament.” Al Jazeera. Al Jazeera. March 12, 2024. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/12/five-key-take-aways-from-chinas-annual-meeting-of-parliament.

[4] “China Sets Ambitious GDP Growth Target of around 5% at NPC 2024.” 2024. Bloomberg.com. Bloomberg. March 5, 2024. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-05/china-s-gdp-growth-target-this-year-set-around-5-reuters-says.

[5] Zhang, Legu. 2023. “China’s Third Plenum Delay in ‘Uncharted Territory.’” Voice of America. Voice of America (VOA News). December 4, 2023. https://www.voanews.com/a/china-s-third-plenum-delay-in-uncharted-territory-/7384506.html.

[6] AP. 2023. “Loyalty above All: Removal of Top Chinese Officials Seen as Enforcing Xi’s Demand for Obedience.” The Economic Times. Economic Times. October 25, 2023. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/loyalty-above-all-removal-of-top-chinese-officials-seen-as-enforcing-xis-demand-for-obedience/articleshow/104703696.cms?from=mdr.

[7] “REPORT on the EXECUTION of the CENTRAL and LOCAL BUDGETS for 2023 and on the DRAFT CENTRAL and LOCAL BUDGETS for 2024.” 2024. https://npcobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/2024-MOF-Report_EN.pdf.

[8] ibid

[9] Lin, Liza. 2024. “China Intensifies Push to ‘Delete America’ from Its Technology.” WSJ. The Wall Street Journal. March 7, 2024. https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-technology-software-delete-america-2b8ea89f.

[10] Qiang, Li. n.d. “REPORT on the WORK of the GOVERNMENT.” https://npcobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/2024-Government-Work-Report_EN.pdf.

[11] Wei, Changhao. 2024. “NPC 2024: Annotated Translation of the Revised State Council Organic Law.” NPC Observer. March 11, 2024. https://npcobserver.com/2024/03/china-npc-2024-state-council-organic-law/.

[12] ibid

[13] ibid

[14] ibid

[15] ibid

[16] “The Complex Challenges Facing China’s Economic Future.” 2023. Worldfinance.com. 2023. https://www.worldfinance.com/strategy/the-complex-challenges-facing-chinas-economic-future#:~:text=The%20country%20is%20experiencing%20an,policy%2C%20has%20created%20societal%20repercussions..

[17] “Territorial Disputes in the South China Sea | Global Conflict Tracker.” 2015. Global Conflict Tracker. 2015. https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea.

[18] Hart, Brian. 2022. “Surveying the Experts: China’s Approach to Taiwan | ChinaPower Project.” ChinaPower Project. September 12, 2022. https://chinapower.csis.org/survey-experts-china-approach-to-taiwan/.

[19] ICWA. 2023. “China’s Influence in the Indo-Pacific: Responses from the US Allies - Indian Council of World Affairs (Government of India).” Icwa.in. 2023. https://www.icwa.in/show_content.php?lang=1&level=1&ls_id=9711&lid=6224.

[20] Mcgregor, James. n.d. “China’s Drive for ‘Indigenous Innovation’ a Web of Industrial Policies.” https://www.uschamber.com/assets/archived/images/documents/files/100728chinareport_0_0.pdf.

[21] Qiang, Li. n.d. “REPORT on the WORK of the GOVERNMENT.” https://npcobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/2024-Government-Work-Report_EN.pdf.

[22] “Member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Foreign Minister Wang Yi Meets the Press.” 2024. Fmprc.gov.cn. 2024. https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202403/t20240307_11255682.html.

[23] “Member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Foreign Minister Wang Yi Meets the Press.” 2024. Fmprc.gov.cn. 2024. https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202403/t20240307_11255682.html.

[24] ibid

Pic Courtsey-Pankaj Jha

(The views expressed are thoSe fo the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)