Changing Face of Terrorism in South-Asia and Oceania: Comprehensive Analysis

In Pakistan, the high levels of violence are linked to various religious groups, such as the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan, the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), and the Baloch militants. Attacks in Indonesia, India, and the Philippines are also caused by groups influenced by different ideologies (Salafi and Deobandi-jihadist). However, the most common causes of these attacks in these countries are far-left and ethnonationalist groups. As the authorities in Australia and New Zealand step up their efforts to combat the various threats posed by extremists inspired by the Islamic State and al Qaeda, they also confront a far-right movement that has become more prominent.

The political situation in South and Central Asia continues to affect the militant environment. In August 2021, the Taliban took over Afghanistan as a de-facto government. Since then, they have been focused on establishing international legitimacy. However, their efforts have been overshadowed by the growing tensions with the US. The group’s support for anti-Pakistan militants and the establishment of safe havens for senior al Qaeda leaders have also raised tensions between the security agencies of both countries.

In 2019, India’s government intensified its efforts to restrict the autonomy granted to the state of Jammu and Kashmir. This move aggravated the tensions in the region, which has been the site of the ongoing hostilities between India and Pakistan since 1947.

Terrorist groups continue to receive support from the state: 

The harboring of terrorist groups by both Pakistan and the Taliban undermines the region's stability. It also heightens the tensions between the two countries, which are nuclear-armed rivals. Terrorist activities are often supported by state actors, which can lead to crises that can affect the global community. The initial signs of a possible improvement in Pakistan's activities against terrorist groups suggest that it is working to contain them. However, the outlook for the long-term remains unclear, especially since the Taliban's commitment to the Qatar agreement is not clear. In the agreement, the group stated its intention to prevent groups from using areas it controlled for attacks on the US or its allies. Supporting terrorist groups has a significant influence on Pakistan's foreign policy. It has been acknowledged that the country's intelligence services have been providing terrorist groups with safe havens and training. These activities are aimed at competing against India and disrupting the operations in Afghanistan. The Afghan Taliban has been supported by Pakistan for years to maintain its influence in the country. It also continues to support groups in Kashmir that carry out attacks in India. Although the country's government has started to contain terrorist groups, it is not yet capable of doing so.

The dynamics of the situation for the Taliban are complex. For instance, their support for militant groups in Pakistan can be seen as a tool for their foreign policy goals. For instance, if they were to reject the Durand Line, which they regarded as a historical objective of the group, then their actions would represent a significant step toward reconquering areas of the country occupied by the Pashtuns. However, domestic politics could also be the reason behind their support.

The US' efforts to shut down terrorist groups, such as al Qaeda and the TTP, could cause them to expand their activities or create a new rival group. As the organization already faced an insurgency, it would not be able to create a new adversary or strengthen its current one. The support that Taliban receives is also organic, as it comes from individual and family-level connections. The group's governance structure is deeply personal, and relationships within the organization can foster permissive environments even if high-level administrators try to hinder activities of the TTP or al Qaeda. The support provided to terrorist groups by the state can lead to various negative effects, such as increased risk and instability. Although the deniability of their activities is not always perfect, it can still be used as a tool for political and military objectives. Therefore, the concept of deniability is similar to deterrence, in which one party can fail to interpret or evaluate the signals sent by another. The consequences of an escalation between Pakistan and India due to their nuclear weapons and al Qaeda's desire to overthrow governments in both countries and beyond would be significant.

Increased uncertainty in Terrorism threat assessment since 2001:

The events that occurred following the US' withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban's takeover of the country have thrown the region's terrorism landscape into a new state of uncertainty. For over two decades, the US was a vital force in the region, and its counterterrorist operations were instrumental in preventing terrorist activities. The withdrawal of the US forces from Afghanistan is expected to have a significant impact on the region's terrorism landscape. It will reduce the pressure on terrorist groups to launch attacks from the country. The lack of clarity regarding the Taliban's commitment to preventing attacks from happening in the country also affects the situation. While the nature of the new threat that emerges is still unclear. The rise of the Islamic State has revealed a new player in the region's terrorist ecosystem, and al Qaeda has undergone significant changes. The death of Ayman al-Zawahiri led to a leadership transition within the organization.

Since al-Zawahiri's death a year ago, the organization has not officially named a new emir. This indicates that al Qaeda's historical behavior has changed, and it's difficult to tell if the changes brought about by this incident will be significant enough to affect the organization's operations. Terrorist groups continue to focus on South Asia and Central Asia as important areas for their propaganda. The international community's response to the Taliban's victory in Afghanistan is a clear example of this. However, recurring references to India, including the issues of Kashmir and Jammu, suggest that some groups are deriving propaganda value from the nation's changing attitudes toward its Muslim inhabitants. Although the exact value of recruiting is not known, terrorist groups are still using events to call for attacks in India. They are using the situation in the country as a recruitment tool. For instance, the Salafi-jihadist groups in India are calling on Muslims to carry out attacks in the country even though there is no operational presence.

Terrorism Dynamics in India: Evolving Threats and Responses

Terrorist activities continue to be carried out in India, especially in the areas of Kashmir and Chhattisgarh. The number of attacks and fatalities caused by militant groups increased from 2020 to 2021. The main threat to the country remains concentrated in Kashmir. The BJP-led government of India continued to strengthen its position regarding Kashmir after it was stripped of its special status in the constitution in August 2019. Following the revocation of Article 370 and 35A, which granted the region with a significant degree of autonomy and self-governance, various social unrests occurred. However, the overall level of violence has significantly decreased since the 1990s.

In response to the changes in the status of Kashmir, India's security forces have been deployed in the area. For instance, the Rastriya Rifles have been carrying out more search and cordon operations in Kashmir. The situation in the region also started to improve during the 2022 final half. The overall civilian death toll caused by militant activities in Kashmir is low. There have been only a few small-scale attacks that have resulted in more than two fatalities. The last major incident that led to mass casualties occurred in February 2019, when over 40 Indian soldiers died. There after, the violence levels in Kashmir and the surrounding areas started to decrease before they significantly rose. Due to the limitations of global terrorist groups such as al Qaeda and the Islamic State, they have been unable to carry out massive attacks inside India.

In recent history, however, there have been major attacks in India, such as the 2008 Mumbai siege and the 2006 train bombings. These attacks were carried out by groups that are closely aligned with Pakistan's state. Many of these groups, including Lashkar-e Taiba, follow a unique ideology that is different from the Islamic State and al Qaeda. Nevertheless, since 2019, the Islamic State has acknowledged the existence and functioning of a "Hind Province" in Kashmir. It has carried out several small-scale attacks within the region. The group's media outlets, such as Amaq News Agency, have released videos of its members carrying out attacks on security forces. Despite the various terrorist groups' limited success in recruiting individuals in India, the country's Muslims still remain a significant propaganda target for them. Both al Qaeda and the Islamic State use domestic tensions to promote their ideas about radicalizing Indian Muslims. In May 2022, an official from India's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party delivered an interview that was widely interpreted as critical of the prophet Mohammed. Both the Islamic State and AQIS exploited this incident to their advantage. Their goal was to heighten the tensions between the country's Muslims and the ruling BJP government. The controversy led to the murder of a tailor in June 2022 in Udaipur, who was supporting the BJP official's controversial comments on social media. Although most attacks by militant groups targeting Indian civilians are aspirational, small-scale attacks carried out by individuals or groups inspired by their ideologies are still being carried out.

One of the main messages that the Islamic State has been conveying in its publications about conducting attacks in India is the need for Muslims in the country to carry out small-scale operations. In November 2021, the Voice of Hind released a checklist that included various tactics and techniques that can be used in such attacks. In its magazine, the Islamic State has also emphasized the importance of maintaining a decentralized resistance strategy. It encourages sympathizers to provide the group with rhetorical support. Al Qaeda, on the other hand, has been focusing its messages on Kashmir and India, which were topics that its emir Ayman Al-Zawahiri regularly talked about prior to his death.

In May 2022, al-Qaeda released a video that featured commentary from its emir, who criticized India's decision to revoke the autonomy status of Kashmir. Later in April 2022, al-Zawahiri released a video message in which he talked about the battle between India's Muslims and their enemies in the country. He urged them to prepare for their attacks. The eight-minute speech was preceded by a video of an Indian Muslim woman who was praised by al-Zawahiri for confronting a group of students who were harassing students wearing hijabs. As part of its media strategy, AQIS also released its own messages about India. These messages are aimed at inspiring and motivating small-scale action and independent groups in the country. Their goal is to provide a boost to al Qaeda's activities in South Asia and Central Asia. Both al Qaeda and AQIS are mainly confined to Afghanistan. They have a combined strength of only 500 fighters, and they can neither plan nor carry out large-scale attacks.

Conclusion:

The terrorist landscape in Oceania and Asia is dominated by Pakistan and Afghanistan. These two countries, which together account for most of the activities in the region, have gained widespread attention due to the Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan in 2021. The events that occurred in the region during this period significantly changed the geopolitical and terrorist landscape. It increased the threat level in Pakistan and gave al Qaeda a safe haven. In the face of Taliban's victory has led to an increase in the threat level, the exact impact of this development on the country's security is still unclear. The terrorist activities in Oceania and Asia continue to be concentrated in Pakistan and Afghanistan, which have become significant subjects of international attention ever since the Taliban took over Afghanistan in 2021.

The events that occurred during this period significantly changed both the geopolitical and terrorist landscape in South Asia and Central Asia. It increased the terrorist threat in Pakistan and provided al Qaeda with a safe haven. However, the outlook for terrorism in the region is still unclear. In spite of that, the threat level is expected to increase, what exactly the situation will look like in the future is still unclear. For instance, the actions of the Taliban and the de facto security forces in Pakistan will determine the outcome of the situation. Also, the decisions made by the military and political leaders in the country will affect the development of a wider regional conflagration. The terrorist threat posed by Salafi-jihadists in Oceania and Asia has decreased. In the Philippines, political negotiations and counter terrorist operations have helped reduce the threat from local Muslim groups. In Indonesia, the pressure on terrorist groups has not been able to resolve the separatist activities. And the threat level that was associated with Salafi-Jihadist terrorism in New Zealand and Australia is now overshadowed by the political violence in these countries. The most likely perpetrators of these attacks are lone individuals who have been inspired and supported online.

Pic Courtsey-Pedro Iastra at unsplash.com

(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)