Can India mediate in Russia-Ukraine war?
As S. Jaishankar, the foreign minister of India, paid his first official visit to Russia since the commencement of the Russia-Ukraine war, analysts have begun to speculate about India's potential role as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine. In light of these speculations, the purpose of this article is to comprehend how India can effectively mediate between the two, the role that India has played since the beginning of the war, and finally the future possibilities of India's role in mediation.
India's credentials to act as a mediator
India is seen as a friend to both the east and the west and enjoys good relations with world leaders. But there are other factors besides friendship that might make India a mediator. Therefore, it's crucial to consider India's credentials for acting as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine.
India’s all-aligned approach-
When India chose to remain non-aligned during the Cold War, it earned the trust of not only newly emerging nations, but also the west and east blocs. India was able to develop relationships with them thanks to its special position. However, India is currently attempting to reshape its policy, shifting from non-aligned to all-aligned status. This policy of India has been fruitful too, as seen by the fact that it now enjoys good ties with the vast majority of nations, including the United States, Russia, and the European Union. In addition to being a part of the SCO and BRICS, India is currently a member of the Quad and 12U2. Second, the world community today values Prime Minister Modi's leadership. Certain developments, such as French President Emmanuel Macron's willingness to approach India for joint peace talks and Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent applauding words about India, demonstrate this. Thus, as a result of its previous and current positions, India emerges as a suitable candidate for a mediator.
India’s contribution towards peacekeeping
India has always made a significant contribution to the world's peace and security. According to the "India and United Nations peacekeeping and peacebuilding" file, India has provided the most troops (almost 195,000) of any nation for peacekeeping and has taken part in more than 49 missions while serving in UN missions (India and the United Nations Peacekeeping and peacebuilding). Additionally, India has long supported conflict resolution through mediation. Mr. S. Jaishankar's statement that "differences and conflicts should be resolved through dialogue and diplomacy and with respect for international law, sovereignty, and the territorial integrity of states" serves as proof for this. PM Modi was also observed emphasizing that there will be no military solution to the conflict and reaffirming his appeal for an immediate end of hostilities, as well as the need of continuing the path of dialogue and diplomacy.
This position of India is critical because there have been numerous violations of international law in the Russian-Ukraine war, including the Geneva Convention norms and state sovereignty and territorial integrity. Russia has been accused of war crimes, crimes against humanity, and the forceful annexation of Ukrainian territories. On the other hand, Russia has accused Ukraine of designing a genocide. In such circumstances, it becomes important that a country like India take the lead, as it cares about peace and sovereignty.
Neutral stance on the crisis
Since the world is once again split into two opposing camps—one that supports Ukraine and the other that supports Russia—many have dubbed the continuing Russia-Ukraine crisis "cold war 2.0." India, though, has stayed neutral. For instance, it has never gone beyond criticizing the bloodshed and violence brought about by the ongoing war.
(Table shows the standing of India on various UNSC resolutions)
Source of Information- UNSC (UNSC, n.d.)
However, due to India's persistent reluctance to vote against Russia, some have questioned the country's intentions. According to India, it has decided to abstain since the resolutions did not address "other pressing issues." Additionally, India thinks that its choice to abstain is consistent with their well-thought-out national position that "today's era is not one of war," as was previously highlighted by S. Jaishankar and PM Modi as well. Thirdly, India secretly believes (as pointed by the experts) that criticizing Russia won't help end the conflict but that remaining neutral—at least in the eyes of the public—could be advantageous. Thus, despite these reservations about India's intentions, the international community believes in India's ability to mediate, as India has consistently shown concern over the violence and suffering caused by the invasion.
Do Ukraine and Russia consider India to be a player who could contribute to ending the hostilities?
This is a crucial question to address because, given the Indian side's continued tight ties with the top levels of the Russian government, many contend that it is improbable that Ukraine presently views India as a player who could aid in the cessation of hostilities. This is because Ukrainians are a little sceptical about India because, first, India continues to purchase Russian oil, which the Ukrainians claim is used to fund the violence in their nation. Second, India continues to abstain from voting on resolutions that criticize Russia. Therefore, it is possible to argue that India might not be able to play a significant role.
The Russian side, however, is expressing more confidence in India, as it has praised India more than twice just in November. India, too, has praised Russia and called it a "steady and time-tested partner." It is also important to note here that, despite the state of the war, their bilateral relationship has substantially strengthened since the war started. For instance, Russia now supplies 225 percent of all crude imports into India, surpassing both Iraq and Saudi Arabia as the nation's top oil suppliers. Commenting on India's role as a mediator, Russia's Foreign Minister has earlier said, “India is an important country. If India sees to play that role which provides resolution of the problem... If India is with its position of a just and rational approach to international problems, it can support such a process (India Can Play Mediator Between Moscow And Kyiv: Sergey Lavrov, n.d.).”
How has India contributed to the crisis's resolution thus far?
According to the New York Times, India played an "important behind-the-scenes role" in persuading Russia to accept a deal negotiated by the UN and Turkey to release large stocks of Ukrainian food grains in July 2022, and then encouraged "Russia to back off" in September when Russian soldiers shelled Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant (Times, 2022). In addition, India has attempted to defuse the situation by speaking with the leaders of both countries over the phone and through a variety of open and backdoor routes. For instance, in September 2022, at the SCO summit, Prime Minister Modi urged the leader of Russia to put an end to the conflict by declaring that "today's era is not one of war." In addition, Modi spoke on the phone with Ukrainian President Zelensky, during which he expressed India's willingness to support any efforts to bring about peace.
Way forward
We all know that settling disputes through mediation is better than fighting. The need for mediation is crucial because the COVID-19 pandemic's consequences have already caused enough suffering in the world. As a result, nations must move proactively to end the crisis as quickly as possible. One suggestion could be that the blame game won't help resolve the crisis; another could be that nations like India need to win over both sides' trust; and a third could be that the process of dialogue should be used to defuse the situation.
References
1. India and the United Nations Peacekeeping and peacebuilding. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.pminewyork.gov.in/pdf/menu/49151pkeeping.pdf
2. India Can Play Mediator Between Moscow And Kyiv: Sergey Lavrov. (n.d.). Retrieved from Pragativadi : https://pragativadi.com/india-can-play-mediator-between-moscow-and-kyiv-sergey-lavrov/
3. Times, T. H. (2022, November 07). ‘With EAM Jaishankar's Moscow visit, India may try to broker Ukraine peace’. Retrieved from The Hindustan Times : https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/with-eam-s-moscow-visit-india-may-try-to-broker-ukraine-peace-101667759322557.html
4. UNSC. (n.d.). Resolutions adopted by the Security Council in 2022. Retrieved from https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/content/resolutions-adopted-security-council-2022
Pic Courtsey-Ali Ahmadi
(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)
