Border Negotiations between Bhutan and China: Strategic Implications for India

The roadmap was signed at a time when India's and China's troops have been engaged in an 18-month stalemate along the Line of Actual Control in eastern Ladakh. India has taken notice of the boundary deal reached by Bhutan and China which is likely to speed up talks over their border issue.[1] The three-step plan between Bhutan and China comes four years after India and China fought for 73 days at the Doklam tri-junction. At the time, the Chinese were attempting to expand a road in a region claimed by Bhutan.

Bhutan's Three-Step Agreement with China

Bhutan and China inked a three-step plan on October 14,2021 to assist and expedite discussions in order to resolve their border issues, a move that New Delhi said it "noted." The plan "for Expediting the Bhutan-China Border Negotiations" is intended to jump-start work on the five-year-old boundary negotiations, which were initially stalled by the Doklam stalemate in 2017 and then by the COVID-19 Pandemic. Given that India-China border negotiations on their 18-month deadlock along the Line of Actual Control seem to have reached a stalemate this week, the timing of the accord is especially important for New Delhi.[2]

The Sino-Bhutanese Memorandum of Understanding on the Three-Step Roadmap will give the Boundary Talks a new push. According to officials in Bhutan's Foreign Ministry, the three-step Roadmap is a "good development" that would allow the two parties to have "more focused and methodical discussions" on the 37-year-old border issue, which has seen 24 rounds of negotiations and 10 Expert group sessions. According to a news statement published by Bhutan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, it is anticipated that the execution of this Roadmap in a spirit of kindness, understanding, and accommodation would bring the border talks to a successful conclusion that is acceptable to both parties.

Reasons to be Sceptical

Surprisingly, the Bhutanese Embassy in Delhi has refused to comment on the specifics of the MoU's three stages.[3] The three-step plan was finalised during the 10th Expert Group conference in Kunming in April 2021, according to the MFA statement, and submitted for approval to their governments in Thimphu and Beijing, respectively. It's unclear if India was told about the contents of the MoU ahead of time. Further, when it comes to India-China issues, Bhutan has adopted a balancing act. Bhutan was cautious in its attitude even during the 2017 Dokhlam crisis to avoid upsetting China, which may exacerbate Bhutan's own border settlement issues with China.

The Background 

Since 1984, talks between Bhutan and China have primarily focused on two separate areas of contention: Doklam and other areas in Bhutan's west, near the India-China-Bhutan trijunction, which cover 269 square kilometres, and the Jakarlung and Pasamlung valleys in Bhutan's north, which cover 495 square kilometres. China has lately made claims to Bhutan's Eastern Sakteng area (For the first time, Beijing declared Sakteng as a Bhutanese natural sanctuary during the 58th on-line conference of the “Global Environment Facility” (GEF), which was established following the Rio de Janeiro Earth Summit in 1992).

China and Bhutan have had difficult ties in the past, and there have been territorial disputes between them on occasion. Both nations have worked to reduce border tensions since the 1980s, via discussions on border problems. Bhutan and China have conducted 24 rounds of negotiations till 2016 to resolve their boundary dispute. The talks have solely focused on issues in the western and central portions of the border, according to debates in the Bhutanese parliament and other public recordings of these sessions.

Mao announced China's initial claim to Bhutan in 1939, and the Chinese People's Liberation Army seized numerous Bhutanese enclaves in western Tibet in July 1959, along with the conquest of Tibet. China produced a map in 1961 in which it claimed Bhutan, Nepal, and the Indian state of Sikkim as part of its territory.

Until the 1970s, India advocated Bhutanese issues to China. Bhutan became more autonomous in its foreign relations after joining the United Nations in 1971. In reality, in 1998, China and Bhutan inked a bilateral agreement to keep the border peaceful. Bhutan's sovereignty and territorial integrity are respected by China. In 2008, China broke the agreement by constructing roads on Bhutanese land.

Can Bhutan alter its Stance?

It is well known that China has been pressuring Bhutan to establish diplomatic relations. China has previously offered a package that included a settlement to the border dispute as well as increased economic and diplomatic ties. China offered a cooperative field study of the disputed regions during the Shaanxi 2014 discussions between Bhutan and China. But Bhutan is reliant on India for transit, commerce, and access to the outside world because of Bhutan's landlocked status and the presence of inaccessible Himalayan mountains in its northern section. In turn, India ensures Bhutan's security by preventing foreign nations from posing any threats to the kingdom. Joint security arrangements exist between the two nations, such as the Indian Military Training Team (IMTRAT) in Bhutan.[4] Being a prisoner of geography, it is difficult for Bhutan to change her stance, so far as India is concern. The fact that Bhutan has had a long-standing connection with Tibet has played a significant role in shaping its policy toward India. Bhutan cannot approach China because of China's harsh stance toward Tibet. Bhutan's relationship with China has a checkered history. Because of two factors: Bhutan's unique relationship with India and her previous experiences with China, any tight ties with China in the near future seems to be a faraway dream

What Happens If There's a Swap?

Bhutan and China have a 400-kilometer-long border that is a cause of friction. Located in Bhutan's northwestern and central areas, Beijing claims about 765 square kilometres of land as its own. In return for land on its western border, including Doklam, China promised to give up claims to regions in central Bhutan in 1997. Bhutan turned down the agreement because of concerns over Chinese encroachment on the India's strategically important Siliguri Corridor.[5]

Map: Doklam (Western Sector) Strategic Advantage

(All rights of the map reserved. Copyright @ Uttam Kumar )

China's Chumbi Valley and India's Siliguri Corridor are important mountain chokepoints for both countries. They are located north and south of the Doklam plateau, respectively. Bhutan and India's security would be jeopardised if China gained control of the Doklam area, which has considerable military advantages. In the event of a war, “maintaining control of the Chumbi Valley” and obtaining control of Doklam offers Beijing a tactical edge over India (see Map).[6]

Doklam will give China access to a higher terrain, making it much more likely that it will completely destroy Bhutan in the event of war. By road from Doklam, China would have accessibility to the Tri-Junction area, where it could transport military equipment like artillery canons to the Indian border. If India and China get into a war, China will have the upper hand in conquering India's “Chickens Neck” and the entire north-eastern region. Indian strategic counter-offensive capability would also be lost, giving the Chinese a base from which to conduct offensives into Kalimpong (The 1950s saw an increase in India-Chinese tensions over their border disputes because of Kalimpong, a tiny town in West Bengal with a long history of ties to Tibet).[7]

Every state, no matter how large or little, has a basic right to eliminate any threat to its sovereignty and integrity via deft measures. If Bhutan establishes diplomatic ties with China, the danger will be reduced and the border issue will be resolved. But Bhutan must also bear in mind India's security interests, and it should avoid playing cards against India to satisfy its own national ambitions.

Notes

[1] The Statesman (October 18, 2021), “China, Bhutan sign three-step roadmap for expediting boundary negotiations”, https://www.thestatesman.com/india/china-bhutan-sign-three-step-roadmap-expediting-boundary-negotiations-1503017953.html

[2] Haidar, Suhasini (OCTOBER 14, 2021), “Bhutan, China sign MoU for 3-step roadmap to expedite boundary talks”, The Hindu, https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/bhutan-and-china-sign-mou-for-3-step-roadmap-to-expedite-boundary-talks/article36999596.ece

[3] Siddiqui, Huma (October 15, 2021), “India takes note of Bhutan and China pact on border talks”, The Financial Express, https://www.financialexpress.com/defence/india-takes-note-of-bhutan-and-china-pact-on-border-talks/2350416/

[4] Murthy, Padmaja (1999), “Indo-Bhutan Relations: Serving Mutual Interests”, Strategic Analysis: A Monthly Journal of the IDSA, XXIII(1).

[5] Diwakar, Amar (October16,2021), “What does the Bhutan-China border agreement mean for India?”, https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/what-does-the-bhutan-china-border-agreement-mean-for-india-50782

[6] “Where is Doklam and why it is important for India?”, India Today Web Desk New Delhi March 27, 2018, https://www.indiatoday.in/education-today/gk-current-affairs/story/where-doklam-why-important-india-china-bhutan-1198730-2018-03-27

[7] Op. Cit( Diwakar).

Pic Courtesy- Dr. Uttam Kumar

(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)