AUKUS & QUAD- Under the same roof?
Structural realism is the theory of international realism that invites suspicion over the 'relative gains' to the allies in an alliance. Military gains are valued most for the national interest, and it's likely to create a feud in a coalition if the gains are unproportionate. Indo-Pacific has remained the most critical space globally due to China's dramatic rise and its aggressive policies that threaten the countries all around the Indo-Pacific. Quad has become the manifestation of the nation's response to China. The US and Australia are the fundamental members, including India and Japan, to balance China in the Indo-Pacific. Still, the substantial shift in calculations has occurred due to the AUKUS pact. Notwithstanding the Quad primary role in the Indo-Pacific security structure, the USA and UK will help Australia technologically to develop nuclear submarines, neglecting the part of India and Japan and Quad altogether.
The public debates have been fueled by the complete disregard of the Quad's first authority in the regional security net and the neglect of the partner's queries. While France has been furious, both Quad- India and Japan remain silent and appear to have accepted the 'Fait Acompli' by the United States. However, the Quad has been successful in gathering the anti-China movement under its fold, and it has been unsuccessful in transforming itself into a military alliance against China; therefore, India traditional reluctance to forge a military alliance and the USA eagerness to transform Quad into substantial opposition of China's military might has generated a desire of AUKUS like a pact. AUKUS illustrates American willingness to share its advanced technologies with allies as a way to buttress its security against a common threat perception. While there are many ways to understand the implications of the AUKUS, the responses of the Quad countries can be the most illustrative.
Being the most prominent member of Quad, India appears reluctant to welcome the defence pact. It is somewhat akin to its tacit agreement to the deal, which traditionally tended to be adversarial of any military alliance in its backyard. The materialization of the pact owing to the arrangement had severe repercussions on India's regional position, which is sometimes viewed as the dominating regional force in the Indian Ocean. If it gets to sail in the waters of the Indo-Pacific soon, the Nuclear Submarines would likely drift the Indian Ocean under Canberra's thumb, replacing India. Therefore, the development is set to severe India's standing in the region, showing that its neutrality is a departure from its traditional position. Thus, India's position is understandable. Even if Indian officials do not welcome the AUKUS, they view the pact as the regional balancer that strengthens India's Indo-Pacific partners. India's strategy remains to strangle China's behaviour, and repeated dismay related to China's aggression has made India let go of the short-term goals for long-term strategic ambitions.
On the other hand, Japan is battling with the natural emergence of China, welcoming the creation of AUKUS, its seas the AUKUS as one of the various multilateral frameworks such as ASEAN and the QUAD, which contributes to the peace and stability of the Indo-Pacific region. Japan and Australia are the traditional USA military allies, and the nuclear submarines in the Australian Royal navies do not expedite the security dilemma in Japan as it does in the case of India. Thus, Japan welcomes the greater 'radius of actions' of Australia as it opens more avenues for both the countries in the Indo-Pacific.
As in the case of wondering over the candidate of technology transfer, Australia is a wise pick. Modern arms sale agreement accounts for more than the transferring of the equipment. These agreements include provisions for the continued supply of spare parts and, often, maintenance and personnel training. While the technology sharing agreements could close intellectual property and manufacturing techniques, countries usually share their cutting-edge technology when the sharer and recipient face a common threat. The sharer is confident the recipient will remain an ally for the long haul. The confidence cannot provide assurance, which championed the strategic autonomy mandate; therefore, Australia, which fights China, seemed the right candidate for the technology transfer. The forever hesitancy of the Quad to formulate the regional military alliance, supplied by the strong opposition by India, paved the ground for AUKUS to ventured where Quad was reluctant to make forays.
Many scholars believe that the AUKUS won’t derail the unity of Quad as it seeks to complement it. Rather than buttering China’s strategic mind, countries of the Quad would continue to cooperate. But Quad has too much on its agenda faces the challenge to limit itself as a talk shop without actual work. Though there may arrive contention on issues here and there, the larger goal of containing China is well intact in the head and hearts of the nations. Both QUAD and AUKUS are ultimately on the lines of better cooperation for a greater good that at first hand fulfils the self-interest while helping to keep the established world order in place. The rest developments can only be speculated based on assumed state behaviours. However, how far the current results will work is for the time to tell.
References
1. AUKUS from an Indian Perspective | Asia-Pacific Leadership Network
https://www.apln.network/analysis/commentaries/aukus-from-an-indian-perspective
2. Don’t Count Your Submarines Before They’re Built - War on the Rocks
https://warontherocks.com/2021/09/dont-count-your-submarines-before-theyre-built/
3. India, the Quad and AUKUS - Lawfare
https://www.lawfareblog.com/india-quad-and-aukus
4. The Quad could end up running out of steam - Outline
https://outline.com/3ERU9W
5. The Political Fix: Will Quad membership and a ‘minilateral web’ protect India against China? - by Rohan Venkataramakrishnan - The Political Fix
https://thepoliticalfix.substack.com/p/the-political-fix-will-quad-membership
6. AUKUS a game of musical chairs in Indo-Pacific – Asia Times
https://asiatimes.com/2021/09/aukus-a-game-of-musical-chairs-in-indo-pacific/
7. What AUKUS Really Means
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/18/aukus-australia-united-states-submarines-china-really-means/
Pic Courtesy-Andre Klimke at unsplash.com
(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)
