Analysing Latest Developments in South China Sea

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Analysing Latest Developments in South China Sea

South China Sea is a critical sea for trade, energy and shipping industry. Tensions in South China Sea have led to instability and increase in insurance costs for freight shipping. 

Nestled between Southeast Asia and East Asia, the South China Sea, a vast body of water encompassing an area of approximately 3.5 million square kilometers[1], has long been a focal point of geopolitical intrigue. Rich in natural resources and strategically positioned, the region is home to numerous disputed islands and maritime claims, making it a hotbed for international tensions. The South China Sea holds immense significance in global geopolitics due to its pivotal role in trade routes, energy resources, and fisheries. It serves as a critical maritime gateway for major powers and smaller nations alike, fostering economic interdependence while simultaneously sparking territorial disputes.

In this context, this analysis delves into the latest developments unfolding in the South China Sea, seeking to unravel their geopolitical implications. The ongoing territorial disputes, militarization efforts, and diplomatic maneuvers in the region have far-reaching consequences for international relations and maritime security. Through a comprehensive examination of these recent developments, this exploration aims to shed light on the intricate dynamics at play, offering valuable insights into the evolving geopolitical landscape of the South China Sea and its potential ramifications on global affairs.

Historical Context

The South China Sea, a historically contested region, has witnessed a complex interplay of territorial claims over the years. Traditionally, various nations, including China, Vietnam, the Philippines, and others, have asserted their sovereignty over different parts of the sea, creating a backdrop of conflicting interests[2]. This territorial discord escalated with key events such as the 1947 Chinese declaration of the nine-dash line[3], encompassing a vast portion of the South China Sea. Subsequently, the 1974 clash between China and South Vietnam over the Paracel Islands[4] and the 1988 Sino-Vietnamese skirmish near the Spratly Islands[5] heightened tensions in the region.

The establishment of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) in 1982[6] sought to address maritime disputes and delineate maritime zones. Despite this framework, disputes persist in the South China Sea, notably due to differing interpretations of UNCLOS provisions and the assertive actions of some claimant states, such as People’s Republic of China (PRC)[7]. This complex historical backdrop shapes the contemporary situation, with ongoing geopolitical developments underscoring the need for diplomatic solutions and adherence to international legal frameworks in navigating the complexities of the South China Sea.

Changing Tides in the South China Sea

Rising Geopolitical Tensions between the maritime neighbors 

The recent developments in the South China Sea, particularly the escalating tensions between China and the Philippines, mark a pivotal moment in the ongoing geopolitical struggle for control over this contested region. On the 5th of August, a Philippine ship, tasked with supplying a remote military station on Second Thomas Shoal within the Spratly Islands, encountered resistance from a group of Chinese vessels[8]. Notably, at least two blue-hulled ships in the Chinese assembly hinted at potential links to a maritime militia, known as ‘Little Blue Men[9],’ revealing a nuanced layer to China's multifaceted warfare strategy[10]. The situation intensified when a Chinese coast guard vessel employed a water cannon against the smaller Philippine ship, a provocative act with far-reaching implications[11]. This episode sheds light on China's strategic tactics and the role of non-state actors in maritime disputes, underscoring the multifaceted dynamics at play in the South China Sea. Beyond the immediate confrontation, the event resonates globally, adding a new dimension to the complex web of conflicts in the region.

Furthermore, tensions between China and the Philippines have exacerbated since the recent Thomas Shoal incident, in which a Chinese coast guard and a maritime militia vessel collided with a Philippines coast guard ship in the contested Second Thomas Shoal on 22nd October 2023[12].The Scarborough Shoal dispute, with its strategic and economic implications for both nations, adds another layer of complexity. Additionally, since Ferdinand Marcos Jr. assumed office as president of the Philippines in 2022, tensions between the two nations over competing sovereignty claims have risen[13], leading to a never-ending diplomatic scuffle.

From an analytical perspective, the conflict emphasizes the delicate balance that exists and the ease with which a localized incident can escalate into a broader confrontation. Moreover, the involvement of unconventional naval assets, such as the suspected maritime militia deployed by major powers like China, highlights the evolving nature of maritime warfare. This emphasizes the imperative for a comprehensive understanding of the diverse entities and dynamics at play in order to navigate these complex geopolitical waters.

Military Developments

In recent months, the South China Sea has witnessed significant military developments that underscore the evolving geopolitical conditions in the region. In November, the Philippines expressed its intent to forge a reciprocal access agreement (RAA) with Japan, a close ally, allowing the deployment of military forces on each other's soil[14]. This strategic move aims to address growing tensions in the region, especially concerning maritime territorial disputes with an increasingly aggressive China. The Defense Secretary of the Philippines, Gilberto Teodoro, emphasized the commitment of both nations to preserving the rules-based international order and international law[15].

In the same month, the Philippines and the United States intensified their collaboration, launching joint sea and air patrols in the South China Sea[16]. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr described this initiative as a "significant" step, demonstrating a commitment to bolstering the interoperability of their military forces[17]. The joint patrols, starting off the Batanes islands and extending westward, symbolize Manila's firm stance on the West Philippine Sea issues[18]. The move involves a deployment of naval vessels and aircraft from both nations, signalling a proactive approach to safeguarding territorial interests in the face of increasing Chinese assertiveness[19].

Australia's involvement in the South China Sea also made headlines in November when China urged Australia to notify it of navy movements in the contested waters[20]. A senior Chinese official cautioned against potential escalations resulting from minor incidents, emphasizing the need for pre-consultations or notification to prevent misunderstandings[21]. The Australian Prime Minister's remarks about a dangerous encounter with a Chinese warship further heightened tensions, highlighting the complex web of maritime disputes involving multiple actors[22].

In December, the Chinese military expressed displeasure over naval exercises between India and the Philippines in the South China Sea[23]. China emphasized the principle that defense cooperation between countries should not harm the interests of third parties, reflecting its sensitivity to regional military collaborations that challenge its control over disputed territories.[24] As tensions continued into January, China criticized what it deemed as "provocative" moves by the United States and the Philippines in the South China Sea[25]. Both sides engaged in drills, with China condemning the exercises as flaunting military might and detrimental to regional stability.[26] The Philippines, defending its sovereignty, faced off against China in disputed reefs, revealing the strategic importance of the South China Sea as a contested waterway.[27]

Amidst these developments, the Philippines announced plans to develop islands in the South China Sea, intending to improve habitability for its troops[28]. The move, led by Manila's military chief Romeo Brawner, aims to address poor living conditions on the islands while also signalling the Philippines' commitment to maintaining its territorial claims in the region[29]. Additionally, the Philippines and Canada signed a memorandum of understanding on defence cooperation in January, further strengthening ties between the two nations[30]. Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro hinted at the possibility of a Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA), akin to the one with the United States, indicating a deepening relationship with Canada.[31]

Conclusion and Recommendations

In summary, the South China Sea remains a complex theater of geopolitical maneuvers, with recent developments underscoring the multifaceted nature of the challenges faced by nations in the region. The historical context, characterized by long-standing territorial disputes and conflicting claims, sets the stage for the contemporary dynamics unfolding in this critical maritime space.

The recent incident between China and the Philippines, highlights the escalating tensions and the potential for localized clashes to have broader consequences. Moreover, the involvement of unconventional naval assets, exemplified by the suspected maritime militia, emphasizes the evolving nature of maritime disputes and the necessity for a nuanced understanding of the diverse entities and dynamics at play. Military developments further accentuate the shifting subtleties in the South China Sea. Collaborative efforts between nations like the Philippines and Japan, as well as joint patrols with the United States, signal a commitment to safeguarding territorial interests amid an increasingly assertive China.

Looking ahead, it is imperative to continue monitoring developments in the South China Sea. The ongoing importance of this vigilance lies in understanding the potential ramifications for global affairs, particularly concerning trade routes, energy resources, and regional stability. The South China Sea remains a critical maritime gateway, and the complexities of its geopolitics necessitate diplomatic solutions, adherence to international legal frameworks, and collaborative efforts among nations. As the Philippines pursues island development plans and deepens defense cooperation with nations like Canada and India, the region's future remains uncertain. The present fragile-stability, underscored by historical tensions and contemporary military posturing, emphasizes the need for sustained diplomatic efforts to prevent the escalation of conflicts. The South China Sea, with its strategic significance, will likely continue to be a focal point in global geopolitics, demanding careful navigation and cooperative approaches to ensure a stable and secure maritime environment for all nations involved.


End-Notes

[1] Morton, Katherine. “China’s Ambition in the South China Sea: Is a Legitimate Maritime Order Possible?” International Affairs (Royal Institute of International Affairs 1944-) 92, no. 4 (2016): 909–40. http://www.jstor.org/stable/24757682.

[2] Joshi, Manoj. “The South China Sea Disputes: Territorial Claims, Geopolitics, and International Law.” orfonline.org, August 8, 2016. https://www.orfonline.org/research/the-south-china-sea-disputes-territorial-claims-geopolitics-and-international-law.

[3] The Hindu. “South China Sea and the Nine-Dash Line: What You Need to Know.” The Hindu, July 12, 2016. https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/south-china-sea-and-the-nine-dash-line-what-you-need-to-know/article61476803.ece.

[4] Yoshihara, Toshi. “THE 1974 PARACELS SEA BATTLE: A Campaign Appraisal.” Naval War College Review 69, no. 2 (2016): 41–65. http://www.jstor.org/stable/26397933.

[5] Collin, Lean. “Learning from the Battle of the Spratly Islands.” Thediplomat.com. The Diplomat, March 20, 2018. https://thediplomat.com/2018/03/learning-from-the-battle-of-the-spratly-islands/.

[6] Un.org. “United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea - Main Page,” 2023. https://legal.un.org/avl/ha/uncls/uncls.html#:~:text=The%20United%20Nations%20Convention%20on,as%20of%2024%20July%202008)..

[7] J. Thomson, LT Andrew. Keeping the Routine, Routine: The Operational Risks of Challenging Chinese Excessive Maritime Claims, February 9, 2004. https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA422748.pdf.  

[8] Turker, Hasim. “Maritime Chessboard: The Geopolitical Dynamics of the South China Sea | Geopolitical Monitor.” Geopolitical Monitor, August 24, 2023. https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/maritime-chessboard-the-geopolitical-dynamics-of-the-south-china-sea/.

[9] Tisdall, Simon. “Little Blue Men: The Maritime Militias Pushing China’s Claims.” the Guardian. The Guardian, May 16, 2016. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/16/little-blue-men-the-maritime-militias-pushing-chinas-claims-in-south-china-sea.

[10] Turker, Hasim. “Maritime Chessboard: The Geopolitical Dynamics of the South China Sea | Geopolitical Monitor.” Geopolitical Monitor, August 24, 2023. https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/maritime-chessboard-the-geopolitical-dynamics-of-the-south-china-sea/.

[11] Ibid

[12] Ao, Temjenmeren. “Philippines and Shifting Dynamics in the South China Sea | Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses.” Idsa.in, 2016. https://www.idsa.in/issuebrief/Philippines-and-Shifting-Dynamics-in-the-South-China-Sea-Temjenmeren-Ao-071123.

[13] Wright, George. “South China Sea: Philippine and Chinese Vessels Collide in Contested Waters.” BBC News. BBC News, December 9, 2023. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-67668930.

[14] Channel New Asia. “Philippines Hopes to Seal Troops Pact with Japan Soon.” CNA, 2023. https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/philippines-japan-troop-pact-south-china-sea-tension-3900351.

[15] Channel New Asia. “Philippines Hopes to Seal Troops Pact with Japan Soon.” CNA, 2023. https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/philippines-japan-troop-pact-south-china-sea-tension-3900351.

[16] Channel New Asia. “Philippines Launches Joint Sea and Air Patrols with US Military.” CNA, November 21, 2023. https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/philippines-launches-joint-sea-and-air-patrols-us-military-3936436.

[17] Ibid

[18] Ibid

[19] Ibid

[20] Channel New Asia. “Chinese Official Warns Australia on Navy Movements in East, South China Seas.” CNA, 2023. https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/chinese-official-warns-australia-navy-movements-east-south-china-seas-3950601.

[21] Ibid

[22] Ibid

[23] PTI. “Chinese Military Irked by Indian Naval Ship’s Drills with Philippines Navy.” The Economic Times. Economic Times, December 28, 2023. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/chinese-military-irked-by-indian-naval-ships-drills-with-philippines-navy/articleshow/106357434.cms?from=mdr.

[24] Ibid

[25] Channel New Asia. “China Slams ‘Provocative’ US Moves in South China Sea as Both Sides Conduct Drills.” CNA, January 4, 2023. https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/china-slams-provocative-us-moves-south-china-sea-both-sides-conduct-drills-4025026.

[26] Channel New Asia. “China Slams ‘Provocative’ US Moves in South China Sea as Both Sides Conduct Drills.” CNA, January 4, 2023. https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/china-slams-provocative-us-moves-south-china-sea-both-sides-conduct-drills-4025026.

[27] Ibid

[28] Channel New Asia. “Philippines to Develop Islands in South China Sea: Military Chief.” CNA, January 15, 2024. https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/philippines-south-china-sea-develop-islands-military-chief-tensions-territory-4048541.

[29] Ibid

[30] Channel New Asia. “Philippines, Canada Sign Agreement on Defence Cooperation.” CNA, 2024. https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/philippines-canada-sign-agreement-defence-cooperation-4059971.

[31] Ibid


Bibliography

  1. ·        Morton, Katherine. “China’s Ambition in the South China Sea: Is a Legitimate Maritime Order Possible?” International Affairs (Royal Institute of International Affairs 1944-) 92, no. 4 (2016): 909–40. http://www.jstor.org/stable/24757682.
  2. ·        Joshi, Manoj. “The South China Sea Disputes: Territorial Claims, Geopolitics, and International Law.” orfonline.org, August 8, 2016. https://www.orfonline.org/research/the-south-china-sea-disputes-territorial-claims-geopolitics-and-international-law.
  3. ·        The Hindu. “South China Sea and the Nine-Dash Line: What You Need to Know.” The Hindu, July 12, 2016. https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/south-china-sea-and-the-nine-dash-line-what-you-need-to-know/article61476803.ece.
  4. ·        Yoshihara, Toshi. “THE 1974 PARACELS SEA BATTLE: A Campaign Appraisal.” Naval War College Review 69, no. 2 (2016): 41–65. http://www.jstor.org/stable/26397933.
  5. ·        Collin, Lean. “Learning from the Battle of the Spratly Islands.” Thediplomat.com. The Diplomat, March 20, 2018. https://thediplomat.com/2018/03/learning-from-the-battle-of-the-spratly-islands/.
  6. ·        Un.org. “United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea - Main Page,” 2023. https://legal.un.org/avl/ha/uncls/uncls.html#:~:text=The%20United%20Nations%20Convention%20on,as%20of%2024%20July%202008)..
  7. ·        J. Thomson, LT Andrew. Keeping the Routine, Routine: The Operational Risks of Challenging Chinese Excessive Maritime Claims, February 9, 2004. https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA422748.pdf.  
  8. ·        Turker, Hasim. “Maritime Chessboard: The Geopolitical Dynamics of the South China Sea | Geopolitical Monitor.” Geopolitical Monitor, August 24, 2023. https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/maritime-chessboard-the-geopolitical-dynamics-of-the-south-china-sea/.
  9. ·        Tisdall, Simon. “Little Blue Men: The Maritime Militias Pushing China’s Claims.” the Guardian. The Guardian, May 16, 2016. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/16/little-blue-men-the-maritime-militias-pushing-chinas-claims-in-south-china-sea.
  10. ·        Ao, Temjenmeren. “Philippines and Shifting Dynamics in the South China Sea | Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses.” Idsa.in, 2016. https://www.idsa.in/issuebrief/Philippines-and-Shifting-Dynamics-in-the-South-China-Sea-Temjenmeren-Ao-071123.
  11. ·        Wright, George. “South China Sea: Philippine and Chinese Vessels Collide in Contested Waters.” BBC News. BBC News, December 9, 2023. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-67668930.
  12. ·        Channel New Asia. “Philippines Hopes to Seal Troops Pact with Japan Soon.” CNA, 2023. https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/philippines-japan-troop-pact-south-china-sea-tension-3900351.
  13. ·        Channel New Asia. “Philippines Hopes to Seal Troops Pact with Japan Soon.” CNA, 2023. https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/philippines-japan-troop-pact-south-china-sea-tension-3900351.
  14. ·        Channel New Asia. “Philippines Launches Joint Sea and Air Patrols with US Military.” CNA, November 21, 2023. https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/philippines-launches-joint-sea-and-air-patrols-us-military-3936436.
  15. ·        Channel New Asia. “Chinese Official Warns Australia on Navy Movements in East, South China Seas.” CNA, 2023. https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/chinese-official-warns-australia-navy-movements-east-south-china-seas-3950601.
  16. ·        PTI. “Chinese Military Irked by Indian Naval Ship’s Drills with Philippines Navy.” The Economic Times. Economic Times, December 28, 2023. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/chinese-military-irked-by-indian-naval-ships-drills-with-philippines-navy/articleshow/106357434.cms?from=mdr.
  17. ·        Channel New Asia. “China Slams ‘Provocative’ US Moves in South China Sea as Both Sides Conduct Drills.” CNA, January 4, 2023. https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/china-slams-provocative-us-moves-south-china-sea-both-sides-conduct-drills-4025026.
  18. ·        Channel New Asia. “Philippines to Develop Islands in South China Sea: Military Chief.” CNA, January 15, 2024. https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/philippines-south-china-sea-develop-islands-military-chief-tensions-territory-4048541.
  19. ·        Channel New Asia. “Philippines, Canada Sign Agreement on Defence Cooperation.” CNA, 2024. https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/philippines-canada-sign-agreement-defence-cooperation-4059971.

 

Pic Courtsey-Pankaj Jha

(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)

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S Shailesh
S Shailesh

S Shailesh is pursuing BA in Global Affairs from O P Jindal Global University.