100 Years of Chinese Communist Party – How does the future look?

President Xi Jinping delivered a strong speech on the 100th anniversary of Chinese Communist Party from the top of Tiananmen Gate. Tiananmen Square has been present through the various events which have changed China's face in global politics - its founding speech was given from the same place; the site has been a witness to massacre and protests and now 100th anniversary celebration. Xi gave a lengthy speech at the event which was defiant many times. Jinping talked about CCP's role in restoring China's greatness especially after oppression by foreign powers and highlighted the achievements which China has made under the party. Calling it national rejuvenation, Jinping emphasized that the party has led a united battle to achieve its determination and right place in the international platform, thus achieving great success in the new democratic revolution. Jinping confidently said that the era of China being slaughtered and bullied is gone and anyone who dares to even try that will have their heads bashed against the Great Wall of steel built by around 1.4 billion Chinese people. Jinping also spoke about Adding further, the President mentioned that China under CCP had set out with two resolutions for the party - building a moderately prosperous society by 2021 and a great modern socialist country by 2049 - both salient goals to achieve the Chinese dream. The first goal has been achieved as absolute poverty has been eliminated and the country has doubled its per capita income compared to 2010. 

 A strong CCP leader, Mao Zedong overthrew the Chiang Kai-shek government and came to power 1949 and since then China has had one party rule system. CCP till date has had 11 party chiefs and Xi Jinping is the most powerful leader since Mao. Jinping has a world vision of his own and since he has assumed power, he has been pushing for a Chinese takeover of the world. He has given a new birth to the conservative Chinese policies which have the imperialist idea of making China great again. Some of the other facets of his dominant policies are - aggressive economic territorial takeover, solidifying a socialist stand and crushing any opposition to the party and its policies. Jinping and his government have implemented these policies despite being criticised for mishandling the Covid-19 crises and setting in motion an unprecedented pandemic.

The 100-year anniversary celebration has come as a delight for many Chinese people, it has also raised many questions about the legacy which Jinping and his party governance has left behind and on what future holds. CCP with the ascent of Jinping, has moved towards leadership politics and this can be ascertained by the amendment in China's Constitution in 2018, which paved the way for Xi to remain in power officially beyond 2022. Many experts on modern China caution that politics centred around one leader might threaten the ruling party's survival. Xi over the years has moved away from consensus-based decision making and has taken the leash in his own hands and consolidated institutional power. This has led to the emergence of a more radical China with a more ambitious and expansion foreign policy with restriction on influence of foreign ideas and economic cooperation.

Jinping has prioritized security goals over the economic ones, both domestically and internationally. When Xi started out, he did surely promote open-door economic policy and till date continues to do so on the paper. Domestically, the Jinping government has been harsh on the industrial leaders who have not followed or abided by the Party's vision. The hand of state in the private businesses through extreme rules and regulations has resulted in the private sector not being able to achieve its potential. At the same time, Chinese giants like Huawei, Alibaba and even Tiktok, who had achieved market dominance globally have succumbed to losses after their ban by the Indian government nationally when Chinese border troops killed 20 Indian soldiers in hand-to-hand fighting in Ladakh. The invisible hand of market in the open economy is very much visible in China so that the private firms adhere to the state determined goals of development.

At the same time, the Chinese government has come up with a dual strategy called dual circulation - a domestic industry base which would focus on creating consumer goods for Chinese people and an international industrial base which would cater for the country's exchange with the other states. While it is not sure how the entire strategy would work out in reality, it does signal a shift in how the country is going through a change. China is now moving closer towards strengthening its domestic economy and ensuring that it achieves self-sufficiency, especially during a time when the global environment is turning hostile for China. Ensuring self-sufficiency may actually work out for China as it has the potential to develop local companies without sweating. But for that to work out huge amounts of investments will need to be funnelled into state funded and led companies. These industries would be far left profitable and innovative when compared to private firms. This could turn into a disaster too for a country which has a huge population and an aging society trying to catch up to the rich nations with a sizable debt.

In order to achieve its dream of world domination, China needs to be economically strong. Self-sufficiency may not ensure that, but innovation can. Made in China 2025 and self-reliance can only work out when China flourishes as a world class innovation centre. While China is innovating in a variety of technologies and fields like robotics, AI, IT, space, medical devices and biomedicines amongst many, it is vital to speculate whether the innovation would be possible in a substantially liberated and deeply autocratic political system. Till date, there has been no evidence of a non-democratic country becoming a multi-sector innovation hub. If China manages to do so, then it would be first of its kind because debt diplomacy and military aggression can only lead the thirsty horse to shore. In order for the horse to drink the water, China needs to relax its autocratic visible hand in the economic sphere. Its future agenda needs to focus a lot more in creating an innovative, rich environment.

Many are questioning whether the party will remain in power in future and for how long. At the end of the day, a state which runs on rigid social, political, economic and cultural discipline, also creates a faction which does not receive the discipline so well. The cry for autonomy and freedom by Chinese people has been heard periodically through some snippets here and there. This goes on to show that while the tight control of the party does exist over the people, there are gaps. The alternative to the CCP's rigid governance does exist, but Xi and his regime show no sign of even considering the alternative. 

Economically, China seems to be faring better than its counterparts as most of the countries in the world are dealing with pandemic infused recession. While it has extended aid to countries and emerged as a strong partner in dealing the pandemic, politically it has not backed down and continues to fire like a dragon in the geopolitical arena. Its display of assertiveness on the world stage has raised questions on how the political future of the party will look like. It is important to note that over the years, CPC actions and that of China's have become synonymous and the party's nationalism has permeated not only in the Chinese society but also its foreign policy. Given the Covid-19 criticism, mixed with the debt diplomacy and aggressive military shows in the international arena, China has surely made some enemies. For a country which does not make friends and allies, and only bases its relationships on partnership (forced in most of the cases), the radical and aggressive policy do not seem to offer a lot of benefits. Hyper-nationalism, when mixed with dictatorship and an ideological regime, with a touch of racism and military aggression in the international space, is nothing but a recipe for disaster. Avoiding such a disaster should be on the agenda for the party, if it wants to become a great modern socialist country by 2049.

The Chinese leadership, which is now synonymous with Xi and his party, needs to make some important decisions. While it has dealt with pandemic and escaped recession through harsh lockdowns and self-recovery, the same cannot be said for its image and behaviour in the international stage. China is growing but so is the resentment towards its growth. Its radical ideology needs a touch of patience and perhaps even a more detailed thought. While the economic front is not as bad as other countries, the indicators for China are not so good. Profits are lower than last year; interest rates have increased and most of the companies have suffered financial difficulties - mostly because of China's military aggression in foreign policy. Jinping's regime needs to take a look at its party politics and agenda, so that the future does not look deadly. Because the pandemic might go away, the political actors and states will still remain and it is not on China to see, whether it wants some friends or more foes at the global front.

Pic Courtesy -Lin Tang at unsplash.com

(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)