Strategic Alliances and Regional Dynamics: The U.S.-Japan-Philippines Trilateral Summit

A trilateral alliance is a type of partnership or agreement involving three nations. These types of alliances are usually established to address shared interests and security threats. They can also help strengthen the collective ability to respond to international and regional problems. The trilateral alliance involving the Philippines, Japan, and the US is a strategic partnership that aims to enhance political and economic cooperation, as well as mutual security. It addresses various issues such as maritime safety, China's growing assertiveness, and freedom of navigation. The goal of the three countries is to enhance their influence within the Indo-Pacific region and ensure a balanced power in the system.

Key agendas:

Security concern: The trilateral summit addressed several urgent security issues, with a particular focus on the increasing maritime assertiveness of China in the South China Sea. This region, a critical conduit for international maritime trade, has seen escalated tensions due to China's expansive territorial claims and militarization efforts, including the construction of artificial islands and the deployment of military assets. The leaders expressed deep concerns about actions that threaten regional stability and violate international law, emphasizing the importance of maintaining freedom of navigation and adherence to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). These discussions underscored the necessity of a unified approach to deter potential conflicts and ensure a secure maritime environment in the Indo-Pacific.

Economic initiatives: The leaders of the three nations committed to strengthening their economic ties during the summit. They also discussed various initiatives aimed at promoting sustainable growth and enhancing the Philippines' technological and infrastructure sectors. Significant investments from Japan and the US were provided to help fund these projects. These include various projects that will help the Philippines develop new digital infrastructure and improve the country's public transportation system. These projects are part of the country's strategy to reduce its reliance on China. The leaders also discussed the importance of maintaining a resilient supply chain and developing innovative technologies.

Military Cooperation: The nations agreed to enhance their defense capabilities and establish new military alliances by holding the joint military exercises and the interoperability of the armed forces. They also discussed the expansion of an agreement that allows the US to expand its presence in the Philippines. Additionally, initiatives to modernize military equipment and systems, such as the provision of coastal surveillance radars and advanced communication networks, were identified as crucial for enhancing regional security. These measures are intended to strengthen the military readiness of the allies and ensure a coordinated response to any potential threats in the region. Together, these key discussion points from the summit illustrate a comprehensive approach by the U.S., Japan, and the Philippines to address both immediate and long-term challenges in the Indo-Pacific, ensuring a balanced focus on security, economic strength, and military cooperation.

Also, China plays a central role in the formation and focus of the U.S.-Japan-Philippines trilateral alliance, primarily due to its growing influence and assertive actions in the Indo-Pacific region, especially in the South China Sea. Here are the key aspects of China's role:

Maritime Assertiveness: China's expansive claims and military buildup in the South China Sea have raised tensions with neighboring countries and other global powers. This includes building artificial islands, militarizing them, and engaging in activities that many view as coercive or in violation of international maritime law, particularly the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

Regional Influence: China's Belt and Road Initiative and its push for dominance in regional trade and infrastructure projects have prompted concerns about sovereignty and economic dependency among its neighbors. This has led countries like the Philippines and Japan to seek stronger alliances with the U.S. to balance China's regional ambitions.

Security Concerns: Incidents such as the harassment of Philippine vessels and the unilaterally declared air defense identification zones by China have direct implications for the national security of countries in the region. These actions have driven the U.S., Japan, and the Philippines to enhance their military cooperation to ensure they can uphold freedom of navigation and overflight, crucial principles for international law and global commerce.

Diplomatic Strategies: China's approach to resolving territorial disputes bilaterally, rather than through multilateral forums, has been perceived as an attempt to leverage its size and power over smaller nations. This has led to a strategic response from the U.S., Japan, and the Philippines to strengthen their collective diplomatic stance and support multilateralism as a counterbalance.

1. Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement: The EDCA's expansion allowed the US to station more troops and facilities in the Philippines, a vital part of the country's rapid response capabilities and security.
2. Maritime and Cybersecurity Initiatives: The three countries also agreed to enhance their maritime security and cybersecurity efforts. This includes the establishment of a framework to protect against cyber threats, which have been increasing in frequency and severity.
3. Economic Partnership Agreements: Commitments were made to accelerate economic integration and cooperation, focusing on infrastructure development, technology exchanges, and building resilient supply chains, particularly in critical sectors like semiconductors and clean energy.

The countries are committed to carry out joint training and regular operational exercises to enhance their readiness and defensive capabilities through investment in technology, infrastructure and human capital. problems of climate change and transition to renewable energy were also addressed.

Outcome:

The trilateral partnership is positioned to counter China's growing influence in the region by strengthening its economic and military ties. This will reassure lesser states that they can count on their partners for support. The agreements reinforce the commitment to uphold a rules-based international framework, particularly in the maritime domain. This helps prevent unilateral actions that could threaten international norms and regional stability. And the emphasis on infrastructure development and economic cooperation is aimed at reducing the countries' dependence on Chinese supply chains and investments. This will enable greater economic sovereignty among the nations in the region. The outcomes of the summit set the stage for the future trajectory of the relations between the Philippines, Japan, and the US. They also provided a framework for addressing the rising threats to international law and freedom that authoritarian regimes pose.

Challenges and Controversies

Domestic Opposition:

?      Increased foreign military presence can be controversial in the Philippines, where national sovereignty is a sensitive issue. Nationalist groups and some political factions might oppose the presence of foreign troops, viewing it as a relinquishment of Philippine sovereignty. Historical contexts, like past U.S. military bases in the Philippines, exacerbate these sentiments.

?      In Japan, the nation's pacifist constitution and the public's general aversion to military expansion limit the government's ability to engage in outward military alliances. The Japanese government must navigate public opinion and constitutional constraints carefully to expand its military role.

?      In the U.S., there might be opposition from those who prioritize domestic issues over international engagements, arguing that resources could be better spent at home, especially if the economic benefits of military expansion are not clear.

Economic Fluctuations:

Economic downturns, whether global or national, can impact the funding and feasibility of large-scale investments promised during the summit. For instance, if a recession hits, priorities might shift towards economic stabilization at home rather than international economic projects. Changes in government can also lead to shifts in economic policies. New administrations might prioritize different sectors or adopt more protectionist policies, which could affect multinational agreements and projects.

Strategic Implications:

?      China perceives these trilateral agreements as a threat to its sovereignty and regional influence. It often frames such military alliances as examples of Cold War-era thinking that destabilizes the region and threatens peace.

?      Some experts believe that while military alliances can provide security, they also risk entrenching divisions and escalating conflicts rather than promoting resolutions. The focus on military buildup could lead to an arms race, reducing the chances for diplomatic solutions.

?      In the Philippines, where many of the infrastructure and military enhancements are planned, local communities might oppose projects that could lead to environmental degradation or displacement without adequate compensation or consultation. These projects need to be managed in ways that consider their impact on local populations and environments.

?      Initially, the enhanced military collaboration and commitment could deter aggressive actions in contested areas, contributing to regional stability. The presence of more advanced military assets and greater cooperation could act as a significant deterrent against potential adversaries.

?      The agreements will definitely prompt other regional actors to seek stronger alliances either with or against the trilateral partnership, leading to a more engaged and possibly complex diplomatic landscape in the Indo-Pacific.

?      Over time, this strengthened trilateral alliance could alter the power dynamics in the Indo-Pacific. It might lead to a more multipolar region where smaller states, through alliances, can exert more influence and counterbalance dominant powers like China.

Conclusion:

The formation of the trilateral alliance aims to enhance security and balance of power, but it also comes with various strategic and diplomatic risks. These include the perception of China's intentions in the region. The emphasis on China's influence and the strengthening of the alliance's military ties could lead to tensions and an arms race. This would not contribute to regional stability. China might see this as an attempt to contain it, which could lead to a more muscular stance on its defense and foreign policies. The growing emphasis on security and military measures could overshadow the opportunities for diplomacy with China. This could reduce the scope for cooperation and dialogue on various global governance, trade, and environmental issues. The alliance would also likely place the region at an escalated disadvantage, as it creates an adversarial environment that makes it harder to resolve disputes through peaceful means. Although the joint economic initiatives are expected to be beneficial, they may also increase the dependency of some of the alliance's partners, which could limit Japan and the Philippines' ability to make foreign policy decisions. This could expose them to criticism of neocolonialism and economic dominance, which could affect their relations with China.

As the U.S., Japan, and the Philippines navigate their strengthened ties, it is crucial for these nations to consider the broader implications of their strategies in the Indo-Pacific. Balancing deterrence with diplomacy, fostering inclusive regional dialogues that include China, and promoting genuine multilateralism could mitigate the risks of polarization. The alliance, while foundational for security, must also strive for a diplomatic equilibrium that encourages stability through engagement rather than exclusion, ensuring a strategy that contributes to lasting peace and prosperity in the region. 

Pic Courtsey-Dimtry Anikin at unsplash.com

(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)