Russia's increasing control over Ukraine's territories
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has had a profound impact on the stability of the Ukraine region and for the future of European security, not to forget the immense human suffering. This particularly comes across as a shock in response to President Vladimir Putin’s stated goal for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as “demilitarisation and de-Nazification of Ukraine”, a prevarication that many scholars clearly indicated as a wholesale Russian takeover, including possible regime change.
It is notable to observe how the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in his statement to media indicated how Russia was no longer “only” trying to take control of the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts in Donbas. In fact, for him and whole of Russia, the geography was different now. While it became a prevalent notion that Russia had lost its initial aims, some suggested that for starters, Russia didn’t know its war aims.
The Russian Case Decoded
As NATO grew eastward following the fall of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, it finally included the majority of the former communist countries in Europe. Along with Poland, Romania, and other nations, the Baltic republics of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia that were formerly a part of the Soviet Union joined NATO. As a result, NATO advanced to the Russian border, hundreds of miles closer to Moscow. Additionally, it declared in 2008 that it intended to enrol Ukraine, though it is still viewed as a distant possibility. The Russian president subsequently described the expansion of NATO as ominous and the possibility of Ukraine joining as a serious threat. Putin stressed that historically and culturally, Ukraine is fundamentally a part of Russia. (ALLISON, 1944)
It is apparent that Ukrainian supply lines are being hit more frequently as a result of Western-supplied weapons, particularly the US HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System). Russia's supply lines would be significantly more exposed if the Russian army expanded its campaign to western Ukraine. Therefore, any such offensive "inevitably results in huge casualties in terms of both logistics and personnel, especially if the Ukrainians succeed in cutting supply lines. While Ukraine's present is under military attack, it seems premature to envision what its future will look like. The worst-case scenario is playing out right in front of us, and the sad fact is that the West has been reduced to watching as a conflict started by one man: President Vladimir Putin (TOOSI, 2022)
The other nations in an area that Russia has already destabilised will require more political and financial resources while NATO fortifies its Eastern flank in case the conflict escalates, in addition to the $1.3 billion package that the EU adopted to protect Ukraine. In such a situation, Europeans must engage with Russian and Eastern European civil society to reactivate the networks that have led to positive transformation in the former Soviet Union in the name of human rights, freedom, and self-determination. (TOOSI, 2022)
In order to deter the West from supporting Ukraine militarily and to instil terror in those who make decisions, Russia has deliberately purposefully increased the possibility of the use of nuclear weapons. Even though most specialists believe there is little risk involved, Putin and his advisers have decided against following the sensible caution taken by the majority of his Soviet predecessors. In contrast to Cold War tradition, Kremlin propagandists and officials now advocate for the use of Russia's nuclear arsenal against Ukraine and maybe even against NATO states in highly reckless rhetoric. Even now, the Russian president has expressed a desire to include Belarus in the nuclear debate. Such play-acting has facilitated the reintroduction of nuclear weapons into the power struggle.
While the war is still very much pertinent, it was always been certain that there would be many casualties, high numbers of internally and externally displaced people, and a severe socio-economic crisis. In such a scenario, Ukraine needs the support of the EU, in particular, to address the humanitarian and economic consequences of this war. It is also striking to observe the contrast between Europe’s slow motion and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s rapid full invasion of Ukraine. Until sometime ago, Europeans were discussing what Russian action would trigger what sanctions, while the Russian military was encircling Ukraine. Significantly, The EU’s package of sanctions will be the last nail in the coffin. Even if military engagement has been ruled out, European publics is not prepared for the consequences of war on energy provision or the economy, nor are they ready to welcome refugees. (Kirby, 2022)
Russian invincibility broken again
The initial objectives of the invasion were obviously not met since the mystique of the unbeatable Russian force vanished in a matter of weeks. The area around Kyiv had to be cleared of Russian forces, and they were driven back in numerous other places. So far, Ukrainian bravery and superb resource management have proven to be a formidable match against the poorly led, motivated, and organised adversary who is also dealing with logistical and technical issues, such as defective equipment. The conduct of the military operation was markedly marred by corruption, a sickness at the core of the Russian state. Despite censorship, the Russian population is increasingly aware of the massive human losses in Russia. This presents itself as a great opportunity for Ukraine to regain its lost control amidst Russia’s struggling supremacy. (Pszczel, 2022)
It is realistic to assume that practical decisions will be more important than any new organisational structures, and complex plans or strategies will only be worthwhile if they are put into practise. As it uses deadly force to advance its imperialist objectives, Russia has begun to enjoy its role as a predator. Even in its diminished state, Russia is still capable of causing significant harm to others. It can only be stopped by credible force and powerful deterrence. Contrary to popular belief, the greatest way to avoid a war with Russia is to get ready for one. However, Russia must not already consider itself to be the hegemon. Any invasion would not be viewed in isolation with a united West and a conscious international order. Instead, it was a serious menace that needed to be stopped.
References
- · ALLISON, R. (1944). Russian 'deniable' intervention in Ukraine: how and why Russia broke the rules. Oxford University Press, 1255-1297 (43 pages).
- · As Russian Federation’s Invasion of Ukraine Creates New Global Era, Member States Must Take Sides, Choose between Peace, Aggression, General Assembly Hears. (2022, march 1). Ukraine, Ukraine.
- · Dan Bilefsky, R. P.-P. (2022, april 21). The Roots of the Ukraine War: How the Crisis Developed. Retrieved from nytimes.com: https://www.nytimes.com/article/russia-ukraine-nato-europe.html
- · Kirby, B. P. (2022, may 9). Why has Russia invaded Ukraine and what does Putin want? Retrieved from bbc.com: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56720589
- · Pszczel, R. (2022, july 7). The consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for international security – NATO and beyond. Retrieved from nato.int: https://www.nato.int/docu/review/articles/2022/07/07/the-consequences-of-russias-invasion-of-ukraine-for-international-security-nato-and-beyond/index.html
- · ROSA BALFOUR, D. B. (2022, february 25). Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Changes Everything. Retrieved from carnegieeurope.eu: https://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/86525
- · Russia-Ukraine War. (2022, august 25). Retrieved from nytimes.com: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/08/25/world/ukraine-russia-war-news
- · TOOSI, N. (2022, August 30). Russia and the U.S. are entering ‘dangerous and uncharted’ nuclear territory. Retrieved from politico.com: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/30/russia-united-states-dangerous-uncharted-nuclear-territory-00054134
Pic Courtsey-Eugene at unsplash.com
(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)
