Nord Stream Sabotage?

Gazprom is the company behind the construction of another pipeline, which is known as Nord Stream 2. Germany was supposed to grant this pipeline an operating license this year, but it was postponed due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. For a number of months now, Russia has been reducing its gas supplies through Nord Stream 1. In June, it cut down on its gas deliveries by 75%. While in July, Russia temporarily cut down its gas supplies through Nord Stream 1. After it was reopened, the flow decreased to 20 million cubic meters a day. And in August, the company decided to shut down the entire Nord Stream 1. The reason for this was reportedly equipment problems.

Damage to the pipeline

In September, Denmark and Norway reported multiple pipeline leaks in the Baltic Sea. These incidents affected the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines. According to seismologists, they detected multiple explosions under the sea. Although the gas had not been flowing through the pipelines, huge bubbles appeared at the surface of the sea. Although the US and the EU have not ruled out Russia as the cause of the incidents, they have stopped short of blaming it. Gazprom stated that it's impossible to predict when the pipeline will be able to reopen. The company noted that it might hope that the European Union would pressure Ukraine to recognize its territory.

Europe on the supply cuts

Due to the reduction in Russian gas supplies, the European Union has become more dependent on Russian energy. Over the past year, the wholesale prices of gas in the region have increased significantly. Even though the UK doesn't rely on Russian gas, the price of gas has increased due to the shortages. The high prices of gas are affecting the budgets of many households in Europe. They are also increasing the costs for manufacturing companies. This could lead to slower economic growth in the region.

In response to the increasing energy costs, the EU has agreed to reduce its gas usage by 15%. And Germany is planning on implementing a 2% cut in its consumption this winter. Other countries such as Switzerland and Spain are also considering similar measures. Before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Germany was relying on Russian gas for over 55% of its energy. While in response to the situation, Germany has reduced its imports of natural gas by 35%. It also plans to import gas from other countries to reduce its energy consumption. With regards to the rising energy costs, many European citizens are taking various steps to reduce their consumption. Some of these include buying solar panels and wood burning devices.

Pipeline Sabotage

The exact nature of the attack on Nord Stream and how it could have been carried out are some of the questions that have been raised regarding the incident. It's believed that the explosions that caused the multiple pipeline leaks were intentional. Nato also believes that the incidents were not caused by accidents. And the attacks on Nord Stream were carried out in the exclusive economic zones of Sweden and Denmark, which highlighted the vulnerability of Europe's maritime infrastructure. The incident has raised the issue of the policies that Europe should adopt to protect its pipelines and other maritime facilities. It's still not clear how the attacks were conducted. Although the investigations are expected to take months, it's widely believed that they were carried out using underwater equipment. One of the possible scenarios is that they were carried out using a sophisticated submarine. This suggests that the attackers were either state-owned or operated by the state. Although the attacks didn't take place in the territorial waters of the countries that are members of Nato, they could still be regarded as acts of war.

Another scenario is that they were carried out using a privately-owned surface vessel. This type of operation would have involved using a fishing boat as a platform for underwater divers. The vessel would have been hiding in the marine traffic. This scenario suggests that the attackers were either state-owned or operated by the state. It's also possible that they were using grey-zone tactics, which are usually carried out covertly. The involvement of the government would be very difficult to confirm. This suggests that the attacks on Nord Stream were the first instance of grey-zone activity in the European Subsea. Grey-zone tactics have been associated with the activities of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, as they have been known to seize ships. They have also been used by China's fishing fleets to expand their territorial claims. Although grey-zone tactics have been used in various ways, such as seizing ships, they have not been extensively studied. In the cyber domain, a hacker group that is independent from the government usually carries out attacks. While the similarities between the cyber world and the maritime domain can be useful in identifying the vulnerabilities in the various maritime facilities. The complexity of the sea's multiple actors and jurisdictions makes it difficult to identify and prosecute those responsible for the attacks. This makes it easier for criminals to hide. The legal ambiguities surrounding the investigations also raise questions about how to prosecute the perpetrators.

Conclusion

The importance of the underwater space is often overlooked. Pipelines are vital to the energy supply and green energy revolution. The cables that run across the Atlantic and the Mediterranean are crucial to the modern digital economy. Despite the various technological advancements that have occurred in the field of underwater surveillance, Europe has no policy in place regarding the protection of its underwater infrastructure. There are three European Union agencies that deal with ocean surfaces. These include the EMSA, EFCA, and Frontex. None of them have a mandate to look for underwater objects. Despite the technological advancements, the three agencies that monitor maritime activities in the region are still focused on maintaining a tight surveillance program. One of the first steps that the European Union should take is to establish a comprehensive surveillance platform that can be used to monitor and prevent the activities of unauthorized individuals and groups in the underwater space. This will help prevent a potential grey-zone scenario. As underwater surveillance is a costly and challenging task that involves monitoring cables and pipelines that are thousands of kilometers long. The European Defense Agency has a number of projects that are focused on improving the surveillance capabilities of the underwater space. Whereas, a report presented to the European Parliament revealed that technological advancements can help improve the resilience of underwater infrastructures. The coastguards and navies should also work together with the private sector to develop effective underwater infrastructure protection measures. The private sector is also required to partner with the European Union to ensure that the pipelines and cables are protected from potential attacks. This can be done through the establishment of a comprehensive surveillance platform and the availability of repair capabilities. This is why it is important that the European Union has an explicit underwater policy and mandates its agencies to contribute to the protection of maritime infrastructure. The drafting of the Maritime Security Strategy is a great opportunity to address this issue. The European Union's strategy for maritime protection was first launched in 2022. It aims to provide a comprehensive view of the activities of the maritime and ensure that the coordination between the different agencies is maintained.

Pic Courtesy-Economist.com

(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)