Indonesia -US relations under President Jokowi

In his visit to the United States in 2015, President Jokowi and Barack Obama exhibited the willingness to establish a relationship based on strategic partnership through annual ministerial dialogue and capacity building through mutual cooperation and trust. In this context, it is important that we understand how Indonesia sees the United States as a fundamental but benign power to its interests. On the Economic front, United States and Indonesia saw significant developments in the form of business deals worth more than $20 billion. President Joko Widodo himself expressed eagerness to become a part of the Trans pacific partnership. Further ahead Jokowi even described Indonesia as an emerging “big country” in this changing external strategic environment.

Joko Widodo’s visit to US in 2015 has been known for significant outcomes it brought about in their relationship. The usual cooperation assumed the status of strategic partnership, pushing deeper for a broader collaboration and a more comprehensive partnership across many areas. For United States too, Indonesia as a great emerging power as the fourth largest nation, third largest democracy and the largest Muslim majority country – holds the potential to address global challenges. United States and Indonesia also established a new annual ministerial strategic dialogue to regularize high-level consultations. This led to cementing of “Track II,” or non-government track, in U.S.-Indonesia relations.

However, their coming together episode did not go all hunky-dory when on certain issues like climate change, which was one of the key concern areas of the then Obama administration, Indonesia as world’s 5th largest greenhouse emitter could hardly come out in a positive light. Further, while we initially looked at Indonesia’s free and active foreign policy as enabling, it also means its striking structural differences with the US side. While Indonesia seeks to pursue more diverse relationships and sovereign regional decision making, United States prefers decision backing in foreign interventions, in order to re-center its Asia pacific image. Under trump, many East Asian nations including Indonesia have been labelled as violators of trade regulation and with US withdrawing from Trans pacific partnership, the promise made by Jokowi to engage within the trade deal also stands stalled, as most of the progress of the strategic partnership which never really took flight under Obama administration

The most vivid example of this balancing act during Jokowi’s visit was when Indonesia responded to the U.S. freedom of navigation operation (FONOP) in the South China Sea in October 2015. Jokowi in his address urged all the parties – including United States “to exercise restraint.” While some have argued this meant going against the strategic partnership spirit, Indonesia insisted it did what it did only concerned by the exacerbating risk it posed for US- china rivalry, which would have then undermined regional stability and forced Indonesia to pick a side.

Upon being elected, Jokowi underlined his prime priorities. First was to reduce red tapism and enable more businesses to operate in Indonesia, but at the same time continuing limits on foreign ownership. Hence, Jokowi followed a foreign policy different from his predecessor, not only democratically but across various fronts. Indonesian foreign policy focused more on protecting the immediate national interests, such as preserving its exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea waters than aiming at establishing its foothold as a global leader. Clearly, it is also not anywhere close to being one as of now.

The Indonesian military, navy and coast guard have become outdated. This became apparent in 2016 and 2017 when the newly emergent South China Sea concerns came to light. The country’s armed forces still lag behind regional peers such as the Vietnamese military in equipment, which makes it even more difficult for Jakarta to defend its exclusive economic zones. However, in the past two years, the Jokowi administration has emphasized building upon three major security threats: potential conflict in the South China Sea, the growth of militant groups linked to the Islamic State, and maritime piracy. On these issues, Washington and Jakarta now share significant common interests, creating the potential for joint action to address them.

It is important that while talking about Indonesia- US ties, we also underline the importance of china axis in their relationship. Indonesia has had a closer foreign policy with the United States, however with Joko Widodo’s increased emphasis on developing ties with china, it strained Indonesia’s US equilibrium. In contrast to its free and active foreign policy stand, it acted much more wary of China than the United States. This however provided a great opportunity for Indonesia to undertake a geostrategic shift to establish its foothold in the “global maritime fulcrum”, acting as the maritime traffic enabler through the gateway between Pacific and the Indian Ocean. Such a vision requires maritime diplomacy with the pacific nations and whether this can be achieved with United States remains uncertain. While the two countries did enter into a memorandum of understanding upon Jokowi’s visit to the US in 2015, the implications are yet to be witnessed. In contrast to a scanty progress on the US front, Indonesia found greater synergy with china’s own maritime silk route.

Looking at their relationship history through the years, it can be clearly argued that both the nations have underperformed in their potential. Indonesia holds the leverage to be a critical security partner and a great location for US trade and investment in the coming years. However, contrasting to this, they today face not only obstacles along the route of economic cooperation but in sphere of rights and democracy as well. Therefore, it wouldn’t be wrong to suggest that if Indonesia does sustain its economic growth and demographic expansion as envisioned, it can impressively cater as a potential market to the huge US companies, given both the countries do not succumb to the imminent economic nationalism. According to a report by the American chamber of commerce, the total value of trade between the two countries holds the potential to grow by 50% by 2019 in the best case scenario.

References

1. Burke, P. M. (2019, july 30). Time to Take the US-Indonesia Strategic Partnership Seriously. Retrieved from the diploma: https://thediplomat.com/2019/07/time-to-take-the-us-indonesia-strategic-partnership-seriously/

2.Connelly, A. L. (2014). Indonesian foreign policy under president jokowi. new delhi: the lowy institute.

3.Ghoshal, B. (2015). Indonesia under President Jokowi:. southeast asia studies, yale.

4.Kurlantzick, J. (2018). Keeping the U.S.-Indonesia moving forward. council on foreign relations.

5.McRae, D. N.-H. (2015). INDONESIA: BALANCING THE US AND CHINA. AIMING FOR INDEPENDENCE. sydney: united states studies centre.

6.Natalegawa, A. (2018, july 9). Enhancing the U.S.-Indonesia Strategic Partnership. Retrieved from centre for strategic and international studies: https://www.csis.org/analysis/enhancing-us-indonesia-strategic-partnership

7.Parameswaran, P. (2015, december 8). The new U.S.-Indonesia strategic partnership after Jokowi’s visit: Problems and prospects. Retrieved from brookings edu: https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/the-new-u-s-indonesia-strategic-partnership-after-jokowis-visit-problems-and-prospects/

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(The views expressed are personal views of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)