Implications of the withdrawal of U.S and the looming Afghanistan problem
President Biden’s announcement to withdraw the US troops comes at a time when an imminent threat of a military takeover has made Kabul helpless and vulnerable. The US foreign policy in the war-torn state had comprised of security as well as stability of the democratic government in power, but it had come at the cost of massive dissatisfaction amongst the Afghan population, international allies, and higher ranks in the US administration. What seems to have become “America’s longest war” is about to come to an end without any concrete solution. Taliban, which has claimed to have captured 85 per cent of the Afghan state after the withdrawal, has not been clear about its intended actions. As the situation unfolds, it would be worth anticipating some scenarios in Afghanistan. The re-emergence of the Taliban would also mean a change in India’s policy towards its good friend in the region.
Introduction
As the new president, one of the first major steps taken by Joe Biden has been to announce the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan by August 31st leaving only about 300 of them to secure the US diplomatic mission in case of an emergency. This does not come as a surprise due to the longstanding resistance in the congress as well as the willingness of the three previous administrations to exit Afghanistan. A New York Times article stated that the American funding has been at $4 billion per year to the Afghan military. Policymakers seem to have expressed the war effort as unsustainable, given there has been no considerable improvement in Afghanistan’s defence and economic capabilities.
Nevertheless, Biden’s exit plan seems equally troublesome due to the lack of a concrete transition policy. Concerns have been raised as the execution of the withdrawal may prove disastrous for the country as well as the region. Gen. Austin Miller, Commander of US forces said that there is a possibility of civil war if the situation remains unchanged. Furthermore, the Observer Editorial section in The Guardian explains Biden’s failure to consult NATO and the UK as “galling.” These claims do not seem to have been made in vain as the current scenario in the region is unfolding. Reports suggest that the southern parts of the country have been captured by the Taliban which comprises nearly 70 or more districts out the 400 since May this year. Moreover, the negotiations between the current regime and the Taliban that took place in September 2020 also failed.
America first?
As much as Biden would like to criticize Trump for his “America first,” his policy in Afghanistan does not seem to be any different. Like Trump, Biden has remained reluctant in pursuing the never-ending war in the region. However, evidence shows that he was not in favour of sending troops to Afghanistan long before he became the president. While it has been widely agreed upon in Congress, the withdrawal certainly does not take into consideration the implications including human rights and geopolitical issues in the region.
Women and Minorities
The rapid expansion of the Taliban has rung alarm bells for human rights groups and NGOs who have become extremely concerned about the future of women and minorities in the countries. Over the years, the efforts have helped raise a considerably progressive and educated middle class even though it is small in number. About 40 per cent of Afghanistan’s students comprise girls and given the Taliban’s track record, girl education has a grim prospect in the future. This is aided by the fact that the present Taliban is overwhelmingly Pashtun like their predecessors. It is indeed bad news for the Hazara minority who were persecuted in large numbers during the previous Taliban regime.
Civil War
Taking precedence from the recent actions of the Taliban, it is unlikely that the Islamist organization is in a mood for peaceful negotiations. Owing to the government’s failure in tactfully negotiating, there is a high possibility of a military takeover. Even though assurances have been given by the Taliban leaders that there would not be any military action, the organization has a military advantage over the Afghan government. Support for the current government is also relatively less due to their close association with foreign powers. Political instability and corruption within the government have managed to produce a lot of dissatisfaction amongst the rural and poorer populations in the country.
Geopolitical Instability
Afghanistan borders major actors like Iran, Pakistan, and China while also sharing its borders with Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan which have remained Russia’s sphere of influence. On the other hand, due to its geographical proximity, it shares a close relationship with India which has helped in its infrastructure development, energy and education. A return of the Taliban may prove disadvantageous for India. This is due to two main reasons; first, the Taliban’s close ties with Pakistan and second, it is a threat to India’s already dwindling position in South Asia. Pakistan has been a haven for many Taliban leaders and has provided political and strategic assistance to the group. With it coming to relevance in Afghanistan, Pakistani assistance in critical defence and even nuclear infrastructure is not impossible which will only prove fatal for an Indian state that is yet to resolve its issues in Kashmir. Second, India’s efforts to hold on to the SAARC nations seem to be failing. Important partners such as Nepal, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka have challenged its status quo in one way or the other. Afghanistan’s support for India has remained vital and losing it might prove to be another hurdle to its established position.
Conclusion
In the last two decades, the presence of the US in Afghan land may not have produced any major economic or social reform in the country but it did provide relative stability to the region. Experts note that the prospects of a smooth transition and return of the Taliban are not likely. However, if the Taliban wants to sustain its hold on Afghanistan, it would need international cooperation and legitimacy as a political organization. On the other hand, the withdrawal poses important questions about the US’ retracting policies. As the US increasingly centres its priorities home, there appears serious cracks in the liberal international model being promoted abroad because Afghanistan would shine as an example to highlight the failure of yet another long war.
Notes
1. https://www.ft.com/content/7a8798e2-dab1-4b4d-8467-6e7c79190c67
2. https://thediplomat.com/2021/06/a-month-into-the-us-withdrawal-from-afghanistan/
3. https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/07/opinion-biden-afghan-withdrawal-498702
4. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/14/world/asia/afghanistan-troop-withdrawal.html
5. https://www.vox.com/2021/4/25/22402539/afghanistan-military-withdrawal-final-biden-september-11th
Pic Courtesy- Sohaib Ghyasi at unsplash.com
(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)
