Geopolitical implication of China’s Brahmaputra hydropower project on India

As the Indo-Chinese bilateral relationship in the recent years have faced various issues which ranges from dispute on Line of Actual Control to Chinese presence in India’s Neighbourhood and the Indian Ocean Region to India’s growing relation with the West to dispute on water flow from Brahmaputra river. As Brahmaputra river which is the 9^th largest river in the world originate from Kailash ranges in the Himalaya in China and enters India near the village of Gelling in the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh. The construction of world’s biggest dam on Brahmaputra river by China under its 14^th Fiver Year Plan (2021-2025) in an earthquake prone zone coupled with China’s claim on Arunachal Pradesh such developments have become a new contentious issue in the Indo-Chinese relationship. Such developments are taking place at the time when situation on the Galwan Valley region is being normalised. The construction of the dam is likely to sharpen the Sino-Indian territorial and border disputes which is going through a tough phase and China’s announcement of two new counties in Tibet which include part of Ladakh has strained the bilateral ties.¹

China’s dam on Brahmaputra River/ Yarlung Zangbo River

However, China’s Brahmaputra hydropower project has the potential to significantly impact India by potentially reducing the water flow during the dry seasons, disrupting agriculture in downstream areas, exacerbating flood risks during monsoon season. It will cause ecological damage, leading to growing concerns about India’s water security and also raising geopolitical tensions between two nations. As India is worried about China's ability to control water release from the dam, potentially using it as leverage. 

India fears that the dam’s enormous size and scale could allow China to control water flow, pose a strategic threat to India’s interests. During periods of hostilities, China could potentially release a vast amount of water, causing floods in Indian border areas. According to 2020 report by the Lowy Institute, an Australian think tank, highlighted how control over rivers originating in the Tibetan Plateau gives China significant leverage over India’s economy.² Based on such a challenge India has accelerated plans to build its own large hydropower dam and reservoir. India intends to spend US$1 billion to expedite the construction of 12 hydropower stations in Arunachal Pradesh. However, building such dams in the fragile Himalayan ecosystem presents a significant engineering challenges for India especially given tectonic activity in the region.

However, China’s proposed dam on the river will taps into one of its rainiest regions, promising abundant water resources and generating over 300 billion kWh of electricity annually which will be enough to power more than 300 million people which will be constructed at the cost of US$ 137 billion. The dam on Brahmaputra River or Yarlung Zangbo River as known in China has immense hydropower potential to provide an estimated 70 million kilowatts of exploitable energy for China, as the river’s lower reaches feature a 2,000-meter vertical drop over just 50 kilometres.

China is aware of such a situation, as the project will surpass the scale of China’s existing Three Gorges Dam, the largest hydropower station globally. Beyond energy generation, the dam will showcase China’s engineering prowess, solidifying its leadership in hydraulic infrastructure both domestically and internationally. As the project highlight Chinese power and described as not just an energy initiative but a cornerstone of China’s national security strategy, providing water resources and economic stability. The project is expected to generate annual income of 20 billion yuan ($3 billion) for the Xizang Autonomous region (Tibet Autonomous Region) which will further solidify China control and presence in the region.

Impact on India

On the issue development of dam on the river which has alarmed the Indian government, they will continue to monitor the development and will take necessary measures to protect India’s security and national interest in the Northeast region. Planning a dam of this magnitude in such complex terrain in Xizang Autonomous region poses significant risks to downstream regions of India and Bangladesh, especially in the event of a mishap or if there is alteration in the water flow as witnessed recent earthquake in the region which killed 126 people. Such aspect is also a critical reminder for India to reassess its 2022 proposal to build India’s second-largest dam on Brahmaputra at Yingkiong in Arunachal Pradesh to counter China’s river diversion plans.

Considering China is moving forward with its plan, which could be part of its tactics to either divert the attention or to further pressurise and occupy India, India’s Defence Minister on the issue of dam has stated:³

“The Indian government is on alert, as China’s plan to construct a mega dam on the Brahmaputra River in Tibet, close to its border with India. As New Delhi has urged Beijing to ensure that the interests of downstream regions are not adversely affected by its upstream activities."

-Rajnath Singh, Defence Minister of India

As the dam is to be built at a huge gorge in the Himalayan reaches where the Brahmaputra River makes a huge U-turn to flow into Arunachal Pradesh and then to Bangladesh which are part of the lower reaches of the river. China has played down apprehensions about the massive project located in ecologically fragile Himalayan region that they made the plan to build the dam after rigorous scientific evaluation which will not impact the ecological environment, geological conditions and negatively affect the lower reaches (India and Bangladesh).

China argues to address India and Bangladesh concern, China will use establish communication channels like the Memorandum of Understanding to maintain cooperation, which in the case of India and China isn’t a legally binding water-sharing treaty. As China’s dam could serve a dual purpose and while generating hydropower it can allow China to manipulate water flow as a strategic tool which could cause flood in Indian border areas as such aspect could come handy for China at the time of conflict between India and China in the Northeast region of India.

However, as such issues are seen as a worrying sign for India, as it will negatively affect the lower reaches which is well reflected from the below statement:⁴

“We have seen the information released by Xinhua on 25 December 2024 regarding a hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo river in the Tibet Autonomous Region of China. As a lower riparian state with established user rights to the waters of the river, we have consistently expressed, through expert-level as well as diplomatic channels, our views and concerns to the Chinese side over mega projects on rivers in their territory. These have been reiterated, along with the need for transparency and consultation with downstream countries, following the latest report. The Chinese side has been urged to ensure that the interests of downstream states of Brahmaputra are not harmed by activities in upstream areas. We will continue to monitor and take necessary measures to protect our interests,”

-Randhir Jaiswal, spokesperson for the Ministry of External Affairs

As the timing of the proposal to build China’s biggest dam on Brahmaputra and announcement of two new counties followed when India and China after a period of four-and-a-half-year border standoff in the Galwan Valley decided to disengage in October 2024. Such developments will continue to keep India occupied with developments at the Line of Actual Control considering lack of fencing and there are many contested and unmarked areas on the border. On the issue around Line of Actual Control, following statement gives an analysis how border issue should also be seen and analysed:⁵

“It’s four lines, actually, one is the Indian perception of the Line of Actual Control. Another is the Chinese perception of the Line of Actual Control. Third is the Indian perception of the Chinese perception of the Line of Actual Control — because we have a perception based on their line of patrolling. And the fourth is, of course, the Chinese perception of the Indian perception of the Line of Actual Control.”

-Vinod Bhatia, Former Director General of Military Operations for the Indian Army

Thus, based on such an analogy and aforementioned development, statements and events, the development of a major dam on Brahmaputra will keep India occupied as China’s action will ensure there won’t be a desirable normal status-quo to be established between India and China. As China continues to circumscribe India’s ability to act at the regional and international levels, growing difference between India and Bangladesh and later closeness with China’s all-time weather friends Pakistan will act as a hurdle to effectively deal with China on dam, impacting India’s dam on Brahmaputra from Bangladesh.

With no binding water sharing treaty between India and China and India and Bangladesh, after the construction of Chinese dam, Brahmaputra River; a trans-boundary river will become a bone of contention between these nations. Following the construction of India’s dam, it might distance Bangladesh away from India and could place them close to China, creating a new geopolitical tension and security issues for India in South Asia. Emergence of a China-Pakistan-Bangladesh nexus could spur more trouble for India causing a shift in power dynamics in South Asia which will not bode with India.⁶

In such a scenario, the construction of dam isn’t a development process initiated by China to provide a better living for its people in the Xizang region. Given the geopolitical implication behind the dam construction, following statements gives depth to the development and thinking process:⁷

"Environmental concerns suggest that upcoming conflicts may revolve around water resources rather than fuel. Recently, the world has experienced a significant increase in regional disturbances primarily caused by water scarcity. Tensions arise between nations when upstream countries attempt to regulate the flow of transboundary rivers. Factors such as demographic growth, industrial expansion, and other developmental activities drive countries to control water sources. These actions become contentious when they impact the livelihood, environment, and progress of downstream nations. In South Asia region, escalating tensions are already evident due to China's unilateral decision to construct dams and implement river diversion projects in Tibet. This decision is partially motivated by the domestic economic pressures and partly by the desire to establish a dominant position."

-Colonel PK Vasudeva (Retired), Indian Army

"China's long-term strategies for acquiring natural resources, particularly water, pose significant threats to global community, especially its neighbouring nations. China's position as the upstream country gives it an advantage in controlling trans-border water resources shared with India. The proposed dam on the Brahmaputra River by China have raised some serious concerns in India. These dams could have devastating effects on the populations relying on the river's waters, and not only impacting their livelihoods but also potentially endangering their lives due to the risk of catastrophic earthquakes and floods. Furthermore, India must remain cautious of China's potential willingness and ability to weaponise water resources when necessary. Consequently, it is crucial for India to develop a comprehensive and a well-considered strategy in collaboration with other downstream nations, like-minded nations, and international bodies to protect its security interests."

 -Brigadier Bimal Monga, VSM (Retired) Indian Army

As the announcement of China’s construction of dam on Brahmaputra isn’t a coincident as it happened at the time when growing geopolitics in South Asia has occupied India in the recent years which can be from worsening of India’s relations with Maldives in the past or Bangladesh today or growing China’s involvement in South Asia’s geopolitics. With India announcing its plans to assert its right within the Indus treaty with Pakistan, on the other hand, China countered it and said India’s entry to the Nuclear Supplier Group would happen if Pakistan is also allowed to become a part followed by announcing plan for construction of dam on Brahmaputra river. Thus, India sees red in China’s dam project and is concerned due to absence of any bilateral or multilateral treaty between India and China on the water.⁸ As the river flows through Arunachal Pradesh construction of such dam could help China to further assert its claim over the state in the future causing more competition and conflicting issue between India and China.

Conclusion

As for quite some time, China lay a claim on Tawang region in Arunachal Pradesh, but now China have started to claim entire Arunachal Pradesh as part of the Xizang Autonomous region. India fears China’s position on providing hydrological data to India and construction of dam on Brahmaputra will allow China to control the flow of water to its advantage allowing it to use Brahmaputra’s water as a political or military tool during the time of peace or war. Such a development gives China a leverage against India and India is aware of the situation. Further, if China re-route Brahmaputra waters to its north something China doesn’t discuss in public, if it happen it will have devastating consequences for India’s Northeastern states and Bangladesh. China in the past like in 2001 and later in 2013 didn’t convey full details of its project on the river to India which caused human loss due to collapse of a dam and also created a discomfort between India and China respectively.

A similar situation has arisen in China’s latest dam project on Brahmaputra River and it continue to develop such project with impunity which allow China to derive economic benefit and now sits in a position to strengthened its strategic reach and impact. Such a situation is a worrying sign for India, as such Chinese move wouldn’t only disregard interest of downstream nations, but also gives China an upper-edge vis-à-vis. Thus, in such a situation, India should take a firm stand to protect and defend its interest while ensuring Bangladesh’s interest is safe and secure, and make sure Dhaka stand with New Delhi in coming times.

Footnotes:

1.  “India protests China’s creation of two new counties in Aksai Chin, objects to Brahmaputra Dam proposal”, The New Indian Express, accessed on January 25, 2025, https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2025/Jan/03/india-protests-chinas-creation-of-two-new-counties-in-aksai-chin-objects-brahmaputra-dam-proposal.
2.  “China’s Brahmaputra dam and India’s strategic dilemma”, Policy Circle, accessed on January 27, 2025, https://www.policycircle.org/economy/chinas-brahmaputra-dam-dispute/#:~:text=China%27s%20Brahmaputra%20dam%20and%20Indian,floods%20in%20Indian%20border%20areas.
3.  “India on alert regarding China's proposed dam on Brahmaputra: Rajnath Singh”, The Hindu, accessed on January 28, 2025, https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-on-alert-regarding-chinas-proposed-dam-on-brahmaputra-rajnath-singh/article69074912.ece#.
4.  “India raises Brahmaputra dam plan with China, objects to new counties in Aksai Chin”, Indian Express, accessed on January 29, 2025, https://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-protest-china-new-counties-hotan-ladakh-9758431/.
5.  “Why Do India and China Keep Fighting Over This Desolate Terrain?”, NY Times, accessed on February 02, 2025, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/27/magazine/india-china-border.html.
6.  Mazumdar, Jaideep, “A New Pakistan-Bangladesh Nexus, Spurred By China, could spell trouble for India”, accessed on February 04, 2025, https://swarajyamag.com/world/a-new-pakistan-bangladesh-nexus-spurred-by-china-could-spell-trouble-for-india. Also See. Pant, Harsh V and Kalpit A Mankikar, “The Fatal Flaw in India’s China Strategy”, ORF, accessed on February 04, 2025, https://www.orfonline.org/research/the-fatal-flaw-in-india-s-china-strategy.
7.  Vasudeva, Colonel P K, “Chinese Dams in Tibet and Diversion of Brahmputra : Implications for India”, USI of India, accessed on February 05, 2025, https://www.usiofindia.org/publication-journal/chinese-dams-in-tibet-and-diversion-of-brahmputra-implications-for-india.html. Also See. “Monga, Brigadier Bimal, “Impact of Chinese Activities on Brahmaputra River”, USI of India, accessed on February 05, 2025, https://www.usiofindia.org/publication-journal/impact-of-chinese-activities-on-brahmaputra-river.html.
8.  “China using Brahmaputra dam project as strategic weapon”, Deccan Herald, accessed on February 06, 2025, https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/china-using-brahmaputra-dam-project-2094994.

Pic Courtsey- Photo by Tejj on Unsplash

(The views expressed are those of theo author and do not represnt views of CESCUBE.)