Ethiopian Conflict- The worsening plight of Tigray Region
Regarding the study of conflict in international relations, the case of the African continent stands out to be quite peculiar for our understanding. The African continent, since the end of World War 2, is yet to achieve the notion of real peace in the continent. With a continent whose states are divided along the lines of government instability, economy crippled by debts and ethnic clashes, the case for Africa become certainly one of the most important issues in security studies. The levels of complexities run deep when the idea of peace is raised in this continent. Not only on the lines of government instability is the issue divided, but the problem is also met with the fact that the issue of non-state actors advocating violence and taking advantage of weaker government institutions like Somalia, poses a serious existential threat. In that regard, the case for Ethiopia becomes equally necessary to comprehend and analyze from the perspective of maintaining peace in the region. A nation that is actively going through a civil war which is prescribed in the ongoing government administration and a nation divided along ethnic lines, Ethiopian conflict has the potential of being turned into the worst humanitarian conflict in the whole of the Horn of Africa. But that raises a substantial question about how in such a quick timeline has Ethiopia entered such a state? With the context of the African continent and question on the stability of the Ethiopian state, we will be understanding the recent and ongoing security threat in Ethiopia and understand the narrative behind the struggle for peace involved in the question.
“We should not wait to count the graves before declaring the crisis in Tigray”- US Special Envoy Jeff Feldman
Every state in international relations is bound to have either bilateral or multilateral relations in the international arena, therefore any possible or ongoing conflict is bound to have effects on the neighbouring parties and this Hegelian dialectic sets the narrative of future discourse on similar notions of dispute. As per Samuel Huntington’s theory of clash of civilization, the narrative of the dominant civilization or existing civilization is bound to face the challenges of the minority ethnicity or the narrative of ethnicity that is opposite to the existing or dominant civilization in the society. Definite ideas of peace are hampered by the post-colonial developments that have taken place, the installation of governments by the West to implement the notion of democracy and the problem of accommodating different ethnicities and their interest. To understand Ethiopia and its ongoing conflicts, it is imperative to have a detailed look into the government and political structure of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia. Addis Ababa (capital of Ethiopia) is situated in the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia is the largest and most populated country in the Horn of Africa. In 1993, neighbouring country Eritrea was succeeded from the Ethiopian territory, its former provinces along the Red Sea and Ethiopia became landlocked. This succession became crucial for the security agenda for the Ethiopian and Eritrean delegation in the region. Being one of the world’s oldest countries in the African continent, the border conflict and security issue with the Eritrean delegation in 1993 and 1998- 2000 became the most highlighted issue in the whole of the African issue[1]. The historical significance of Ethiopia is so significant for the continent that in modern world affairs, it defeated colonial Italy in 1896 in the Battle of Adwa and again in 1935- 36 which stabilized the position of Ethiopia as one of the major political states in the African continent[2]. Because of the defiant nature of the colonialism of the Italian state, its liberation by the Allied power set the stage for Ethiopia to solidify its stage in the independent nations by signing the Charter of United Nations and taking upon a lead role in terms of handling the situation of peace and security and decolonization of Africa. This streamlined role led Ethiopia to become one of the founding members of the Organization of African Unity in 2002 or known as the African Union and United Nations Economic Commission for Africa[3]. Even after considering the institutional political reference of the Ethiopian state, the geopolitical significance of the Ethiopian state becomes equally important as the state is bounded by Eritrea in the North, Djibouti to the northeast, Somalia to the east, Kenya to the south and South Sudan and Sudan to the West. Considering the political, historical, and geopolitical stronghold of the Ethiopian state, it is imperative that if the Ethiopian state is facing security and possible conflict situations, how it will be affecting the entire continent. Currently, Ethiopia is involved in a civil war and currently is divided into two factions with signs of armed struggles from both factions.
The current state of Ethiopia has seen many transformations and essential conflicts which have shaped the national and international outlook of the Ethiopian state in the making. Insurgency in Ogaden (1995- 2008), Ethiopian- Eritrean War (1998- 2000), an active participant in the peacekeeping mission to Somalia and the Tigray Conflict (2020-)[4]. The focus of Tigray catches a particular stance of Ethiopia on the issue of federalism and ethnicity. The Tigray conflict currently stands at a point where from now on the nation can lead to a total collapse and breakdown of its system. This conflict has been called off by many political analysts as the next “Balkanisation of Ethiopia” and can be left in destruction for the government, the federal structure and with a high human cost[5]. Ethnic composition plays a significant role in understanding the ongoing ethnic polarization in the country. As per the national census of the Ethiopian Government in 2011, 10 different ethnicities form 10 different states in Ethiopia. As per the Federal composition of the Ethiopian Government, every state has some sort of autonomy to form its political parties, conduct state activities and take part in the central government’s legislation. Out of the 10 different ethnicities, Oromo forms 34%, Amhara forms 27%, Somali forms 6.2% and Tigrayan forms 6% of all the total population, and Oromo is the majority ethnicity which has close ties with Amhara and Tigrayan forms the minority ethnicity in the state[6]. Even though the Tigrayan forms the minority composition of the Ethiopian population, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (T.P.L.F) had significant political involvement in the history of Ethiopia. Alongside the Eritrean army, T.P.L.F was able to lead a successful campaign to form a resistance movement in 1975 against the military dictatorship, which was called “Derg”[7]. Derg or also known as The Leftist Derg formed in 1974 faced subsequent opposition from T.P.L.F united the forces of different ethnic states to eradicate the leftist derg from Ethiopia[8]. The Political Legitimacy of the T.P.L.F came under serious threat in 2012 when the dominant party and its leader, Meles Zenawi, were alleged of propagating authoritarian regime ideas in the country, restricting free speech, detaining political dissidents and not able to reach any peaceful resolution with the neighbouring country of Eritrea[9].
With a falling political legitimacy, in 2018 the coalition elected a new leader, Abiy Ahmed of the Oromo ethnicity came to power, took the role as the Prime Minister of the country, and further angered the Tigrayan region[10]. The Ahmed regime initiated two major political reformations which were translated as an act of ostracism towards the T.P.L.F. Firstly, Ahmed removed all the Tigrayan high officials from the top government offices, which was seen as an act of targeted ostracism towards the Tigrayan ethnicity. Secondly, Abiy Ahmed in his manifesto tried to bridge the ethnic divides in the politics of the Ethiopian state. He insisted on removing all the regional parties and uniting them under one single party which is known as the “Prosperity Party '' and currently is the leading party in Addis Ababa[11]. T.P.L.F translated this action as a threat to the federal integrity of the state and blamed the Ahmed regime for centralizing the political and governmental structure of the state. All these actions are initiating and validating an ethnic divide in the state and an element of “Us v/s Them” narrative is being created in the country. The onset of the conflict was in September 2020 when the Central Government accused the T.P.L.F of resorting to illegal means of elections tampering with the government structure of the state. Not diverting to peaceful negotiations, Abiy Ahmed resorted to answering the T.P.L.F with increased armed forces being sent to the region to suppress the insurgency of the T.P.L.F and resorted to the cutting of all communications, transportation and internet ties of the region thereby keeping the T.P.L.F in complete blackout with the outer world[12]. Since November 2020, not only the Tigray rebels have attacked the Central Government army in the region, but allegations of bombs being also thrown in the Amhara and Oromo region opens the possibility of full-fledged conflict in the region which can further destabilize and exploit the fragility of the region up to the point that federal structure of the state can collapse[13].
What Ethiopia is witnessing right now is ethnic polarization on extreme levels. The foundations of the Ethiopian state are built upon this narrative. Even though the idea of a federal state is applied upon the state with the notion that each state is given its autonomy and power. One of the main characteristics that come from Ethiopian state federalism is the fact that each state tends to have that autonomy used to proclaim a completely distinct narrative based on their ethnic divide. The issue is then intensified by the fact that when the minority ethnicity of the state sees the fact that the majority ethnicity is in the power, that instigates the narrative of fear and insecurity and triggers the notion of Ostracization towards them. One cannot ignore the fact that T.P.L.F, a liberation front of the minority ethnicity in the state was able to rally the country towards its modern state constitution and government structure. But when observed that how Abiy Ahmed chose to completely eradicate the elements of Tigray out of the top party, it is this element of isolation from the political power that one might argue that the majority might try to isolate the minority at this. Not only this, but Tigray is also literally a Pincer Movement. From the north, the Eritrean government’s hatred and animosity that has led a charge towards the ethnic and from the South the forces of the Addis Ababa have put the Tigrayran in a precarious situation[14]. Tigray at this point is looking at this conflict as a narrative of securing its sovereignty and they perceive the central government’s unity is seen as an existential clash towards the Tigray state[15]. What is the implication of peace in this civil war? Firstly, the idea of peace needs to start with the mediation between this ethnic polarization. This ethnic polarization that is currently seen in Ethiopia is not possible devastating for Addis Ababa and Tigray, but it poses an equal threat for all the ethnicities that currently reside in the state[16]. The term “Balkanisation” that was introduced at the start of this paper is specifically directed towards the notion that these ethnic drives can lead to the collapse of the whole Ethiopian state. The conflict can very much be an attack on the political composition of the Prosperity Party as initial attacks have been made towards Oromo and Amhara and if this is not constrained then we are looking at the breakdown of the whole[17]. If a peace mediation is not made towards T.P.L.F and Addis Ababa, then the conflict is far from an end. The reputation of Abiy Ahmed very much hangs in the balance[18]. Already Ahmed is being criticized for committing human rights violation, if the situation is not contained then we are looking at a similar situation as seen with Aung San Suu Kyi as many Tigrayans are claiming that a genocide is being taken place in the state but due to the blockades by Addis Ababa, the international community cannot confirm this allegation either any international news agency[19]. At any cost, the element of peace can only be seen if ethnic violence is stopped. Once the violence is curbed, only then a systematic process of bridging the ethnic polarization can be initiated and upon that ethnic profiling in the politics of Ethiopian politics can be curbed. This element of peace is crucial for the neighboring states as well. The question of Somalia comes to not ignite the Islamic militancy in the area. The question of Sudan comes to not provoke the ongoing border dispute into a full violent clash. The question of Eritrea becomes especially critical. If the attack on the Eritrean state is not curbed then Ethiopia, especially the Tigray state, then Eritrea's involvement in a war with T.P.L.F will render the peace deal between Ethiopia and Eritrea null and void and because there is a deep historical element residing between the two actors in this possible conflict, this inter-state war can be one of the worst humanitarian crises that this continent would be seeing. It is imperative for the state involved in the conflict and the international community to not dwell this conflict into a humanitarian crisis.
United Nations Emergency Relief Coordinator (UNERC) announced on 10th June 2021 that the Tigray region is officially facing a famine[20]. The recent G-7’s summit also discusses the UN-backed Integrated Food Security Phase Classification on the notion that what is the technical framework of the famine that is being caused in Tigray[21]. IPC believes strongly that this famine is not a naturally caused famine but a man-made brutal human tragedy. The conflict has seen from the side of the Government and Eriteria is facing a huge amount of starvation which is unavoidable. As per the Tigray Humanitarian Atlas, 1/3rd of the area of the Tigray region where Eritrean army is in control does not cooperate with the working humanitarian agencies. And the remaining area where government and Eriteria have no control, primarily the rural areas are under the control of the Tigrayan rebels where the aid workers cannot go, and communication lines are also restricted. Suffice that Ethiopia’s conflict is now severely hampering the cause of humanity in the country. Despite the fact, humanitarian aid is being focused in the region, but the stakeholders of the conflict are not allowing to preserve the condition of humanity in the region. The current state of Ethiopia calls for an active intervention of mediation between the three sides of the conflict. Even though at this stage the idea of peace and stability cannot be achieved on an immediate basis in the country, the priority of mediation should be focused on protecting the civilians of the Tigray region. UNSC Resolution 2417 (Condemns Starving of Civilians, Unlawfully Denying Humanitarian Access as Warfare Tactics) should be imperative for the region on a priority basis in the country. The severity of this man-made conflict and famine is proving to be a heavy toll on the country and the international community.
Notes
[1] Felbab- Brown, Vanda. (2020, November 20). What Ethiopia’s Crisis means for Somalia. Brookings.
[2] Ibid.
[3] Bieber, F., & Goshu, W. T. (2020, November 18). It's Not too late to stop the Ethiopian Civil War from becoming a Broader Ethnic Conflict. Foreign Policy- FP Insider Access.
[4] Bieber, J. (2019, January 15). Don't Let Ethiopia Becomes the Next Yugoslavia. Foreign Policy, Argument.
[5] Ibid.
[6] Khan,I. (2020, 8th June). What is behind the dispute over Africa’s Largest Dam. Africa, Al Jazeera
[7] Felbab- Brown, Vanda. (2020, November 20), ibid.
[8] Ibid.
[9] Ibid.
[10] Sparks, J. (2020, November 23). Ethiopia's Tigray Crisis: Thousands flee Civil War fought in the Shadows that could tear country apart. Sky News, World.
[11] Ibid.
[12] BBC News. (2020, November 14). Ethiopia Tigray Crisis: Rights to Commission to investigate mass killings. Africa, World.
[13] Ibid.
[14] Gardner, T., & Estifanos, L. (2020, September 20). Political Violence Could Derail Ethiopia's Democratic Transition. Foreign Policy, Dispatch.
[15] Ibid.
[16] Gebramedhin, D. (2020, November 13). Tigray Crisis: Why these are fears of Civil War in Ethiopia. BBC News, Africa.
[17] Reuters. (2020, November 11). Ethiopian Journalists arrested as Tigray Conflict Worsens, refugee flee to Sudan. World.
[18] Chessemman, N. (2020, November 12). Ethiopia's Dangerous Slide towards Civil War. Foreign Affairs.
[19] Al Jazeera. (2020, November 18). Why 30,000 refugees are fleeing Ethiopia. Conflict, Africa.
[20] A.D.Waal (11th June 2021). “Ethiopia’s Tigray crisis: Tragedy of the man-made famine”. BBC News
[21] (24th May 2021). “US imposes Ethiopia, Eritrea restrictions over Tigray crisis”. Al Jazeera.
Pic Courtesy -Marc Szeglat at unspalsh.com
( The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent the views of CESCUBE.)
