Challenges for Brunei as the new ASEAN chair for 2021
The year 2020 presented itself in the most turbulent tones ever possible. We witnessed the global pandemic, the US-China rivalry, bearish economies and it was in the midst of these unprecedented changes that Vietnam handed over the Chairmanship of the ASEAN for 2020 to Brunei Darussalam on November 16, 2020. Brunei has often been accorded an under-appreciated role in the regional and international relations landscape, often due to its small size and handicap of diversification of its hydrocarbon dependent economy, it has been struggling with. Despite this, it has been one of the original members of the P-4 agreement (with China, New Zealand and Singapore) and a claimant in the hot South China Sea disputes on grounds of counter-terrorism and other maritime issues.
While the ASEAN chairmanship this year falling into Brunei’s lap is exciting and poses significant challenges, it is not something entirely new to the country’s foreign policy. It already has an experience as such in 2001 and 2013. However, in the new and more challenging environment as of today, Brunei’s foreign policy is required to shed light on its own priorities. Some of its emphasis points has been in line with its theme of “we care, we prepare, we prosper” theme. This includes e-commerce agreements, cyberspace and energy, reshaping ASEAN’s COVID- 19 recovery, fostering the fourth industrial revolution and finally undertaking greater and more comprehensive initiatives at establishing broader geopolitical relations amidst the great power competition in the region.
Brunei’s 2021 chairmanship holds significant attention on account of multiple reasons. One such reason has been that it coincides with the 30th anniversary of the China- Brunei relationship. This urges it to redefine its alignments. The new role also means a test for Brunei’s ability to manage affairs at home and abroad. It presents it with an opportunity to capitalize on these alliances to prioritize on its key domestic issues. One such policy has been the “Wawasan 2035”, wherein Brunei aims to transform itself into a high quality center for life and education, sustaining a dynamic economy.
Brunei as ASEAN’s head is obliged to deal with a variety of important responsibilities. One such role comes in where ASEAN as a regional bloc acts as an interlocutor in disputes such as the South China Sea code of conduct (COC), which aims to manage the inter-state relations and evolve a mechanism for dispute resolution. Strengthening the code of conduct is imperative to Brunei’s willingness in pro-actively asserting ASEAN’s stance over the issue and the region in general.
Brunei’s relationship with China and their independent equations within ASEAN is an interesting dynamic. From historic ties of settlement in Borneo to present day assistance to Brunei in diversifying its oil and gas fuel for economic growth, China is a critical ally for Brunei. Both are also increasingly involved in various investment agreements and recently in 2018, the two countries upgraded their relationship to a strategic cooperative partnership. Hence, as a result, Brunei somewhere seems slightly less proactive than the other claimants of ASEAN in its opposition to China’s policies. Brunei has had a general inclination towards a bilateral process of conflict resolution rather than capitalizing on bloc interests collectively. This has been criticized by others to be in line with Beijing’s interests. However, Brunei stands its ground that with a limited military capacity, it wishes to engage with other states cooperatively rather than in confrontation. Also given Brunei clearly shows the willingness to experiment with new military paradigms and diverse strategic partnerships, it is expected that such openness could compensate for its relatively pulled-back attitude towards China so far.
Furthermore, undertaking the ASEAN leadership itself is a mammoth task which involves a review and assertion on multiple fronts of the Indo Pacific, South China Sea code of conduct, and development of ASEAN’s vision post 2025. All of these already present considerable challenges for the head of chair. And now, in the environment of the ongoing pandemic, the task becomes even more complex. There is an evident divide in the bloc currently between the priority response to Covid-19 pandemic recovery and the finalization of South China Sea code of conduct. In addition, it has also outlined emphasis on natural disasters and climate change. According to the center for strategic and international studies, approximately 5,00,000 people across Southeast Asia faced displacement on account of weather-related disasters in 2020. The year also holds prominent expectations with respect to greater investment and trade opportunities with Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).
Constrained by the demands of virtual meetings and the threat of the pandemic, Brunei made clear that COVID-19 was its priority. On the other hand, while Indonesia currently leads maritime states Malaysia, Singapore and the Philippines in denouncing the coup in Myanmar, its mainland neighbors Thailand, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam have shown reluctance on the same. Brunei faces the inevitable task of uniting these blocs to foster a streamlined progress. Brunei also has an important role to mediate in the Myanmar crisis on account of its professional diplomatic corps. Brunei’s challenge is to mediate and forge a consensus for joint action and exhibit true ASEAN spirit.
In the present times, ASEAN’s relationship with big powers is crucial. Thankfully, Brunei has had a good record of handling such ties, especially US and China. Brunei enjoys the leverage of the dark horse, and hence can pursue better diplomatic ties with the big powers on the behalf of ASEAN. The pandemic-hit world scenario presents Brunei with a striking opportunity. It is time for it to both exhibit its true potential and also act in restraint wherever needed. The primary areas of concern therefore must be to act in unified action on issues of cooperation, while preparing for future opportunities. It would be naïve to not expect the coming times to be equally challenging if not what they are today. Brunei’s neutrality and age-old ties with the big powers are important game changers for the region to look out for. In the present air of uncertainty, Brunei’s challenges are nothing but the normal. What remains to be seen is what consequences and challenges this chairmanship would bring for the ASEAN as a regional bloc in the coming times.
References
1.Bandial, A. (2020, november 16). Brunei to chair ASEAN in 2021. Retrieved from the scoop: https://thescoop.co/2020/11/16/brunei-to-lead-asean-in-2021/
2.CHONGKITTAVORN, K. (2021, january 19). Brunei takes chair for year of recovery. Retrieved from bangkok post: https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/2053215/brunei-takes-chair-for-year-of-recovery
3.Ganesh, V. (2020, august 20). An ASEAN do-over: prospects for Brunei’s chairmanship. Retrieved from foreign brief: https://www.foreignbrief.com/asia-pacific/south-east-asia/an-asean-do-over-prospects-for-bruneis-chairmanship/
4.Hayat, M. (2021, april 20). Brunei faces a tough year as ASEAN Chair. Retrieved from east asia forum: https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2021/04/20/brunei-faces-a-tough-year-as-asean-chair/
5Parameswaran, P. (2021, february 9). Brunei Foreign Policy in the 2021 Spotlight with ASEAN Chairmanship. Retrieved from wilsoncenter: https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/brunei-foreign-policy-2021-spotlight-asean-chairmanship
6.Sakhuja, V. (2020, december 10). ASEAN Chairmanship: From Vietnam to Brunei Darussalam. Retrieved from centre for public policy research: https://www.cppr.in/articles/asean-chairmanship-from-vietnam-to-brunei-darussalam
Pic Courtesy- ASEAN website
(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)
