Biden’s Withdrawal from Afghanistan and Developing Scenarios
US President Joe Biden announced his decision to withdraw all troops from Afghanistan by 11th September this year. The date would mark 20 years since 9/11, which was the deadliest attack on American soil since Pearl Harbor. The Islamic Emirate and the Afghan government, the two warring factions are competing for power and the withdrawal would leave a power vacuum which would be filled by either the Taliban or the Afghan government.
The regional actors who share border with Afghanistan are Iran, Pakistan, India, China, and these countries will be directly affected. The extra-regional actor Russia will not be directly impacted since it is geographically distant but would exercise influence. This article would discuss the role of extra regional and regional actors in the context of post US withdrawal scenario.
Regional Actors
Iran:
Tehran has long been an anti-Taliban state, and before the US invasion it overtly supported the Northern Alliance which was comprised of mainly factions from Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Hazara group of central Afghanistan. The main interest for Tehran in Afghanistan is to limit flow of refugees, contain radicalism and drug trafficking.
Although Iran started out as an anti-Taliban state but over the years, it has maintained quality ties with the militant organization, this could be due to two main reasons. Firstly, despite ideological and political differences, Iran needs to work with Taliban to ensure peace and stability as they control vast swaths of territory. Secondly, by working with both sides, it could be trying to enhance influence in the neighboring country.
In late January, this year Taliban delegation met with Iranian officials in Tehran where the political and security situation was discussed. The Afghan government was notified of the meeting, which was confirmed by the Afghan foreign ministry, so it cannot be termed as an indication of Iran supporting the Taliban against the Afghan government.
As far as US withdrawal is concerned, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif welcomed the decision and said, ‘presence of foreign troops can never bring peace in the region’. Iran is performing a balancing act in the sense that it is working with both the Afghan government as well as the Taliban. Iran desires to have a peaceful, stable Afghanistan which would not only provide it with the opportunity to ameliorate trade ties but also ensure stability in the region. Iran’s larger strategy would be expanding influence in Central Asia through cordial ties with the government in Kabul.
Pakistan:
Islamabad has played a key role in Afghanistan since the 1970s when it worked alongside America to contain the Soviets. During those days, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and the army worked to prevent Pashtuns national aspirations for secession.
In the 1990s, under Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, Pakistan lent support to the Taliban through the interior ministry under the garb of “Afghan trade development cell”. It was utilized to not only provide the organization with funds, but they also assisted in setting up the network through wireless communication, refurbished infrastructure such as roads and electricity. Human Rights Watch report released in late 2000 established that the army and the ISI not only aided the Taliban during combat but also guided major intelligence operations.
According to the US senate committee chairman Jack Reed, Pakistan has played a key role in Taliban’s success through refuge being provided to Taliban forces and state support by ISI and the army. Pakistan’s support to the Taliban’s war effort undermined America’s ability to obliterate the Islamic Emirate.
A Taliban terrorist who attended the US-Taliban Doha meeting explicitly said that ‘ISI has been involved in in every step and was the decision-maker of Taliban’s office’. Pakistan foreign office spokesman Zahid Hafeez Chaudhri said that ‘it is important that the withdrawal of foreign troops coincides with progress in the peace process’. Considering that Islamabad has been a Taliban supporter, it will ensure that the militant group plays a vital role in the peace process and the Taliban is incorporated in the government after the withdrawal of foreign forces. Finally, Pakistan’s larger strategy would be to continuously irk India at Kashmir and attempt to create instability in the country through radicalism.
India:
New Delhi has played a role in Afghanistan through support to key war lords before the rise of the Taliban. When Taliban was beginning to take control of the country, it covertly undergirded the Northern Alliance, the airbase at Farkhor in Tajikistan proved to be instrumental in delivering goods.
India shifted its support from the Northern Alliance to the US favoured Pashtun leader Hamid Karzai when the American goliath through the Bonn conference was deciding who would lead the war-torn country. With the Karzai government power, New Delhi worked to enhance ties and boost soft power through investment in development and infrastructure projects.
Although India started out as a power with not much clout in Afghanistan, slowly and surely, it has worked to garner influence through investments and military support. For instance, 1,000 Afghan officers are trained every year and along with it, 285 vehicles and Mi-25 and Mi-35 have been given to the Afghan National Security Forces.
New Delhi’s approach towards the militant organization has changed in recent years as it attended the Doha conference where Taliban sat the negotiating table. This could be attributed to the fact that Taliban holds vast swaths of territory in its control and would play a key role not only in the peace process but also influence the future of the country.
In the backdrop of Biden’s announcement on withdrawal, Chief of Defence Staff Rawat said India wants to see peace and tranquility in the region. New Delhi desires a peaceful, democratic Afghanistan which would enable stability allowing for access to Central Asian markets which is essential to amplify economic power. Finally, India’s Afghan strategy is to keep terrorist forces at bay and to contain Pakistan through a friendly government in Kabul.
China:
Beijing has never given much importance to Afghanistan and this is supported by the fact that there has been little political or economic cooperation between the two countries. However, the approach towards the war-torn nation has changed over the years from being a bystander to active engagement. For instance, in the aftermath of the 2001 US invasion, China did not express interest in joining the US led order. Chinese involvement in Afghanistan began to change from 2014 onwards, when President Ashraf Ghani visited Beijing and advocated for greater involvement to promote regional connectivity and economic growth.
China has increased its foothold in the country as compared to the past, but it has been minimal on the economic front for example Chinese’s investment was about $2.2 million in 2016 and about $400 million in all investment stocks by the end of 2017 which is miniscule as compared to its total investment stocks of $5.7 billion in Pakistan. Beijing desires a stable Afghanistan which would enable it to expand economic foothold and access the Central Asian markets.
It has cooperated with the Afghan government on the security front and provided $70 million in military aid from 2016 to 2018. The Taliban delegations have regularly visited Beijing and a transactional relationship appears where Taliban denies Uighur militants havens and China advocates on its behalf. It has maintained meaningful ties with both the sides.
As far as US withdrawal is concerned, China has blamed abrupt announcement of the goliath for increased attacks and worsening security. Furthermore, it called on America for a responsible exit considering the full security situation. Beijing’s strategy is rather different from the above actors as it does not care who comes to power if it is able to strengthen economic ties.
Extra-Regional Actor
Russia:
Moscow has always viewed Afghanistan through the competition with the west since the 19th century when it competed with the British Empire. The failure of the Soviet invasion influenced Russia to not intervene during the civil war. However, by the late 1990s, it backed the Northern Alliance due to Taliban’s links with the Chechen rebels who are a serious security threat for Moscow. In the initial days, Moscow supported Washington due to antipathy towards the Taliban, but its fears of America undermining its influence led it to increase diplomatic engagement.
As far as relations with the Taliban are concerned, they have improved in the last decade as the two sides cooperated on containing the Islamic State of Khorasan Province, which Russia views as posing regional security threat.
Russia has also enhanced its diplomatic involvement for example what started as a trilateral consultation between Russia, China and Pakistan has been upgraded multiple times to “Moscow conference on Afghan settlement” with the involvement of key player such as Russia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, China, India as well as 5 central Asian countries.
Russia responded to US withdrawal from Afghanistan by saying that it amounted to the violation of the previous agreement signed by Donald Trump. They also said that the delayed pullout will not only escalate conflict, thereby deteriorating the security situation but it could also derail the peace talks. Russia’s larger strategy would be to augment its influence in Central Asia and to prevent the American alliance from using Afghanistan as a launchpad to contain Russia.
Final Standpoint:
The future of Afghanistan would be determined not only by who governs the nation, but the strategies of influential actors too. Iran has been an anti-Taliban state, but over time, it has come to the realization of engaging with the militant organization and is therefore trying to balance relations between the two sides.
Pakistan, which has been a Taliban supporter, and is responsible for America’s failure in wiping out the terrorist group, may try to ensure the Islamic Emirate’s role in governance of Afghanistan.
India which started out as an anti-Taliban nation has changed its strategy from non-engagement to active engagement. However, its goal of supporting a democratic, peaceful government has not, and it hopes to see an Afghan owned government.
China did not attribute much importance to the country but in recent years has pushed on the diplomatic front through engagement with the ‘Moscow Conference on Afghan settlement’. Beijing does not mind who governs the country if it can enhance its economic footprint in Afghanistan in particular, and Central Asia in general.
Russia, which invaded the country under the aegis of Soviet Union, avoided engagement in the region in the early years, but post 2010, it has upped the ante through diplomatic engagement exemplified by the ‘Moscow Conference on Afghan settlement’. It has also engaged with Taliban for reasons pertaining to national security.
End Notes
1)https://thewire.in/security/us-president-biden-announces-complete-withdrawal-of-troops-from-afghanistan
2)https://www.history.com/topics/21st-century/9-11-attacks
3)https://www.history.com/topics/world-war-ii/pearl-harbor
4)http://www.understandingwar.org/iran-and-afghanistan
5)https://www.rferl.org/a/us-afghanistan-withdrawal-iran-opportunities-threats/31215905.html
6)https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/iransource/iran-taliban-growing-ties-whats-different-this-time/
7)https://www.mei.edu/publications/irans-influence-afghanistan
8)https://www.stimson.org/2020/irans-afghanistan-balancing-act/
9)https://theprint.in/diplomacy/us-withdrawal-from-afghanistan-welcome-foreign-forces-cant-bring-peace-in-this-region-iran/641142/
10)https://www.hrw.org/reports/2001/afghan2/Afghan0701-02.htm
11)https://www.wionews.com/south-asia/pakistan-helped-the-taliban-played-on-both-sides-in-afghanistan-us-senator-377880
12)https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2020/mar/24/taliban-has-secret-ties-with-pakistans-isi-report-2121046.html
13)https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/820643-pakistan-calls-for-responsible-troop-withdrawal-following-us-president-bidens-announcement
14)https://thediplomat.com/2019/05/india-in-afghanistan-after-the-soviet-withdrawal/
15)https://www.orfonline.org/research/how-india-came-around-to-talking-to-the-taliban/
16)https://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-afghan-indian-nsas-speak-in-backdrop-of-biden-announcement-of-troop-withdrawal-2886646
17)https://www.freepressjournal.in/india/india-concerned-about-us-pullout-from-afghanistan-general-bipin-rawat
18)https://warontherocks.com/2020/04/chinas-strategic-assessment-of-afghanistan/
19)https://www.icwa.in/show_content.php?lang=1&level=3&ls_id=3856&lid=2935
20)https://www.orfonline.org/research/understanding-chinas-afghanistan-policy-from-calculated-indifference-strategic-engagement-54126/
21)https://www.voanews.com/east-asia/afghanistans-ghani-visits-china-first-official-trip
22)https://www.aninews.in/news/world/asia/china-blames-abrupt-withdrawal-of-us-forces-from-afghanistan-for-surge-in-violence20210511143426/
23)https://warontherocks.com/2020/10/russias-contemporary-afghan-policy/
24)https://www.marshallcenter.org/en/publications/security-insights/return-kabul-russian-policy-afghanistan-0
25) https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/04/14/russia-says-us-troop-pullout-from-afghanistan-risks-escalation-a73597
Pic Courtesy- The Whitehouse official website
(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)
